Barney...
...please establish a link between knife law and a reduction in the number of criminals carrying knives. (You know, the ones who already ignore all the relevant laws about theft/robbery, violence and so on)
Hi Bigshot
I reckon the potential for the new knife laws to modify the behaviour of EXISTING die hard criminals is not the real reason for the laws in the first place, a pleasant bye product of the guidelines however is a certain fact that no cautions will be issued. Although a percentage of the criminals may have some capacity left to absorb information relayed to them and modify there behaviour accordingly. How big a percentage I would not like to attempt to quantify having neither the skills to do so or the inclination.
We, Great Britain, seem to be in the grip of a particularly nasty cancer that is spreading through our youth where its "cool" too belong in a gang and "cool" to carry a knife. The propensity for young people to be influenced by those around them is long recognised by sociologists and and many other groups who deal with them, PEER PRESSURE. Many people are gullible, greedy, easily led fools and they will believe most things presented to them. If advertising did not work there would not be advertisements. The small percentage of rot on the streets, Invariably they are the bullies and so called hard cases, have an influence on the other young people around them that is disproportionate to that of society as a whole. An otherwise well behaved young person may well be affected so significantly by these "wrong uns" that they themselves become unconcerned of the consequences of their actions due to the laws lack of "teeth" and potentially become criminals and knife wielding thugs themselves far easier than may otherwise have happened if stringent control and enforcement was in place.
Some bright spark appears to have identified that the trend is exponential and that the results of doing nothing are very dire indeed for young people specifically and society in general. The guidelines, as about to be introduced, will cause those individuals not already totally engrossed in the culture to at least hear an alternative viewpoint from those criminals in the gang/peer group who at the moment have it all there own way, consequence wise.(caution - so what). This can only be a good thing.
The measures will seem not to work as drastically as some would like, those already influenced may carry the afflictions their whole life, of course some will grow out of it as they would without any measures taking place at all.
The population I am sure would like to see a whole sale reversal of the climb up the exponential curve of knife abuse and its associated aspects, but this is an entirely unrealistic expectation, when this does not happen there will of course be cries of "what a waste of time the measures did not work".
As examples of situation where a reversal of the exponential trend of the sort that we would all like see, can only occur in very extraordinary circumstances indeed.
Think Vaccinations- Measles(topical example) was, at one time at the peak of its exponential curve, subjected to a process where EVERYONE was vaccinated and the infection could therefore not exist at all amongst a population so treated. Knifes and their misuse are a bit more complicated, for reasons that should be obvious.
An example of a partial OBVIOUSLY quantifiable success would be a in a situation like car theft where by the manufacturers used technology to make theft very difficult for casual criminals, The determined thief is still stealing but the results appear mistakenly to be due entirely to cause and effect when in fact the rate of progression has been temporarily reversed.
So there we have just two instances where Physical barriers appear to have had noticeable permanent effect. This scenario would also work with something like cigarettes, If sale was banned then within a short time no one could smoke, the smoker just could not save some for next year and continue. Can you see the problem with a complete knife ban? subsequently the attempt to change thought processes where free will is at play can and will never have the result that we want, indeed hope for (history has shown that things like bans don't work, Right?)
Any restrictions WILL work(whether to the degree we would like or not is another matter)and will have an effect on the existing miscreants and more profound effect in that it will reduce the number of future potential stabbings and save lives, if there are ten more knife related murders next year doesn't mean its not worked.