National Risk Register/National Resilience Update - Nothing new to us.

[Woody girl]

Ah, the Religion of Progress...............



There's technological progress, economic progress and social progress. They move together.............

- Social progress: it's not the level of tolerance that's changed, it's the taboos are different.

I would argue that the peak of tolerance was about 25 years ago when campaigns for core social inequality were won. However, a new intolerance rose from the ashes of the successful campaigns..... if you don't agree with the predominant social narrative, you are an evil person these days. Gone are the days when one could have civilised disagreement. Social media seems to be a big driver- polarising views. Disagreement has become very tribal. Instead of shaming out-of-wedlock birth, we "cancel" those who won't believe that a person can turn into a cat...... or won't entertain the suggestion that if you import 10m more people, you might just need to deal with the requirement for more infrastructure otherwise you get problems..... etc etc etc same intolerance, different taboos.

- Economic progress seems to be about "growth" which is not possible on a planet with finite resources. "Growth" being about consuming more and more. Culture teaches people to want things NOW rather than save up and wait for it. Success judged by how much "stuff" is accumulated, or the type of stuff (e.g. car type/brand). There is the idea (started by Jack Welch) that business must do anything to maximise shareholder growth irrespective of the damage caused- and so we have offshoring and loss of local jobs, an aircraft manufacturer hiding quality issues, and exploitation of people to produce this high-consumption lifestyle that is sold (and mostly believed) as being desirable.

- Technological progress. Some good stuff, but also a lot of incremental and me-too updates. Quite a few downsides which are not really topics we are allowed to talk about. We get what we are given- works for the people selling it but maybe not all the users. Not much discussion of whether an "update" really is a benefit for the end user. Often the costs are hidden- e.g. we don't see the waste from refining rare earth metals as that's on the other side of the world, we are just glad we don't have exhaust fumes in our town (moving from ICE to EV in this case). We don't ask whether the technology is addressing the problem or finding a problem to solve, often by generating desire for something we didn't know we wanted/needed (because actually- we didn't/don't).


Overall....... the speed and demands of life increase, everything is more fragile, the local environment is noisier and angrier, social connections are impacted. Many folks won't notice for a while as they are insulated by their stuff and social status, but others do realise. Some realise sooner- like @Woody girl - and are in effect the canaries in the coal mine.

I follow the writings of John Michael Greer, some very thought provoking stuff, and based on the idea that we have effectively adopted "progress" as a religion to replace Christianity. (He is seen by some as a bit controversial as he correctly predicted that Trump would beat Clinton- in some eyes this made him a supporter of Trump, when in fact he just studied the ACTUAL social vibes and made predictions from what was really going on rather than the wishful thinking media reports).

His novel "Retrotopia" is an interesting read. As are some of his non-fiction works e.g. "The Long Descent: A users guide to the end of the world." He is not a catastrophist, rather he looks at history and how empires fell to predict how western civilisation might end up (spoiler: it's a gradual crumble as demands outrun available resources, not a sudden bang). He also has an interesting blog- Ecosophia.

GC

I've never been called a canary before! Tweet tweet. Thank you.

 

[Falstaff]

Just coming back to the original thread.... To avoid Spanish/Portugal type electricity grid crashes, NESO has been given legal authority to instigate rolling periodic 3hr blackouts, at 8hrs notice without now having to wait for government approval.

Seems perfectly sensible to me given the chaotic alternative, I'm surprised they can even give 8hrs notice.

What a lot of EV owners may not realise, is that they can also separately control the fixed EV chargers that cars connect to. This enables a) on/off or throttled charging and b) actually draw power from the vehicles batteries back to the grid. Enacted into law and mandatory specifications a while back.

This drawdown on vehicles batteries is part of the Govt's power contingency and demand planning. It assumes widespread EV adoption and thereby reserve national/local grid power capacity. (Courtesy of the Right Honorable Member Milliband).

The original legislation made dry reading, (binned it now), but I was surprised when some lesser MP confirmed it on Radio 4, and quoted projected available capacity per EV household/housing area.

 

[GeraldTheBonsai]

What a lot of EV owners may not realise, is that they can also separately control the fixed EV chargers that cars connect to. This enables a) on/off or throttled charging and b) actually draw power from the vehicles batteries back to the grid. Enacted into law and mandatory specifications a while back.

Not quite. This is misinterpreting Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) regulations. All new home and workplace chargers must be "smart". In the UK, V2G functionality became mandatory for new commercial and workplace chargers over 22kW. For residential homes, it is entirely optional and voluntary. You can override it.

But none the less, giving NESO the ability to just implement rolling blackouts with 8 hours notice is somewhat concerning. It's in todays Guardian, (which may or may not be a good thing)..

Millions in Great Britain could face emergency power cuts at short notice

Exclusive: Grid operator Neso can now respond with rolling blackouts as last resort without need for government powers

www.theguardian.com

 

[Pattree]

Been there, Done that fifty years ago.
We didn’t have any way of recalling TV that we missed then either.

Rolling blackouts won’t be as black as in 1978/9

It’s a bloody nuisance but it’s manageable. Invest in thermal flasks and pots for working homecoming. Folk here know that you can cook in those too. I was living in an all electric flat at the time.
Supper wrapped in a duvet!

I imagine that dialysers will now have battery back up.
Hospitals and airports were excluded if I remember.

There is a lot of rechargeable stuff about too that there wasn’t in the winter of discontent.

 

[GreyCat]

Not quite. This is misinterpreting Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) regulations. All new home and workplace chargers must be "smart". In the UK, V2G functionality became mandatory for new commercial and workplace chargers over 22kW. For residential homes, it is entirely optional and voluntary. You can override it.

But none the less, giving NESO the ability to just implement rolling blackouts with 8 hours notice is somewhat concerning. It's in todays Guardian, (which may or may not be a good thing)..

Millions in Great Britain could face emergency power cuts at short notice

Exclusive: Grid operator Neso can now respond with rolling blackouts as last resort without need for government powers

www.theguardian.com

This is old news i'm afraid. The legislation has been there for a while. It popped up to the top of the news a couple or so years ago after a tight spot (grid wise) one winter, on that occasion it was coal power stations going full chat that saved the day...... an option we no longer have.....

It informed certain choices I made with refurbing the new place. Having a source of grid independent heating plus the ability to use Starlink off a power station for comms is part of it. I take the view that its a matter of when this happens not if, just needs the holds in the cheese to line up given the way the grid is going......

It does feel more like the 1970s every day, at least those of us with some 1970's equipment t (coal fires?) Will be able to keep warm if it happens in the winter!

GC

 

[Falstaff]

. All new home and workplace chargers must be "smart". For residential homes, it is entirely optional and voluntary. You can override it.

You are clearly much more up on this than I am, but it didn't read as if it was optional or voluntary, or over-ridable by the householder without techie help.
I suspect installers & suppliers are unlikely to offer that, and would prefer to install more expensive high tech ones and also be falling in line with Govt. wishes.

"on that occasion it was coal power stations going full chat that saved the day...." - I remember that! I have always made sure I have an independent heating source, and fuel for it.

 

[Grebby]

There is now way anyone can force my car to discharge to the grid. There is also no way that anyone can control my EV charger without my login details.

 

[Pattree]

Can someone remind me of the name of that incredible man who taught us lock picking at the recent summer Moot.

He is a professional social hacker and said, in conversation:

There are two kinds of business in the world: those that have been hacked by the Chinese and those who don’t know that they have been hacked by the Chinese.

I do not believe that any passworded system it’s safe from a government level attack.

However I still use passwords systems and would do so for an ev charger if I had an ev.

I believe in air buffers and brass padlocks to delay a hacker.
I believe that my lack of significance will also delay hacker interest.

 

[Woody girl]

That's why im as off grid as i can be..1970 style. They can switch off my electric, but i have a multifuel stove, so heating ,though hard work shifting coal logs and ashes is not too big a deal. I have my little jackery, and a lifesaver cube.. so water and lights have been upgraded to a degree. I have wool bedding, duvet, underquilt and pillows, plus blankets. Double glazing loft and wall insulation. I'm in a better position than in the 70's to be honest, and tho much younger, fit and able back then, I can still cope.
New shelves coming this week for food storage of cans. Been buying two extra cans each week for months. Still not a big stash, but enough to keep me fed, one meal a day, plus porridge each morning for about 2 months.
Camping gas has been bought, and I have quite a few of differenttypes for different stoves,, plus a trangia and fuel.
Plenty of herbal teas and honey. Just in case I can't get milk or sugar.
Presently knitting a woollen vest. I have plenty of wool socks, winter boots, thermal underwear, and
Feeling fairly confident on coping with what might be thrown at us this winter.
I'm on a minimum pension, under £90 a week, so it's possible for anyone to get sorted if they have a mind to.
I'm also making panic packs for neighbours who havnt prepared, tho it's minimal, tea lights and holders, e xtra socks hats and gloves, and a litre of water...the rest is up to them.
My best friend has a sawyer minni, rechargeable light, good small power bank, extra batteries head torch, water storage bottles, kindling, sleeping bag, and there is a basic food pack of she needs it.


I'll always help her, as she has often helped me.
Other than getting a bigger solar back up, which is out of reach atm, im quietly confident in my preps and ability to cope..

 

[TeeDee]

It may be true but it’s true of a world that no longer exists. This world belongs to a new generation.

As we ancients shuffle along towards the end of the twig we tend to hold onto a wisdom that served us well when the world was ours. Now we have opinions - should we be asked - but the world of our prime (physical and mental) no longer exists.

My opinion
There should be an age at which politicians can no longer hold office other than in an advisory capacity. They do not live in their constituents world.
I’m not sure what that age should be.

If anyone is going to see us through a crisis that we cannot yet imagine or predict, they will be very much younger than me and armed with a set of tools that again, I probably cannot imagine

In the meantime I shall remember slide rules, fountain pens and scout hats with brims and be grateful for all the things created by younger brains that are keeping me alive.

Agree on this point.

Certain people due to their age can certainly be separated from the realities of living in this world and the various challenges facing those younger than them.

 

[Silverclaws2]

What worries me, is everything going online, from doctors appointments to car parking. Yes it's convenient to have automatic door opening in the supermarket along with self checkouts and paying with your phone. But a major outage caused by anything(remember the hacking of supermarkets a while ago) and everything stops. No petrol, no shopping banking, or telephone, among many things that spring to mind.
Every aspect of your life needs the Internet. Less than 30 yrs ago, life carried on fairly normaly. You could still phone through to order petrol for your forecourt or goods for your business. Everything kept largely running, with minor inconvenience. Now it all comes to an instant halt.
That is where we need to be putting our thoughts and energy.
Personal safety is also a big issue. I won't go into that, as it could be considered the wrong thing to say, but I'm sure we are intelligent enough to fill in the gap and know the threats facing us on that score.
I'm lucky enough to live fairly rural, but that is no guarantee of safety as the recent case on dartmoor illustrates. Politics of the case aside.

And it was due a lot of this reason that I at the beginning of this year went back to using cash for offline purchases wherein I am back to dropping unwanted coins in charity collection box once more.

 

[Pattree]

I’ll stick with my phone!


As I climb into bed, at two in the morning, having just remembered that I must renew my prescription:

I can pick up an appointment and if I can’t / don’t want to take it I can select a new date (I love the NHS but it is not the first call on my time)

I can get results of any tests that I’ve done all without my calendar being clogged with “having to go places”.

My apple-pay phone system shows me exactly what I’ve spent and how much I still have. It’s the best budgeting system I’ve ever used.

I don’t even own a computer or tablet. All my communication including this thread is done on this phone.

Yes there are places where it doesn’t work, of course there are. However it’s the system that I use so I have learned to handle the problems as they arise.

Yes the possibility exists that I could be electronically attacked but then the possibility exists that I might win the national lottery (I buy a single £2 Schrödinger’s lottery ticket about one in ten weeks and don’t check it for a couple of months.)

In the meantime I’m reaping the benefits of a very convenient system that Is so much easier to use than the alternatives.

pee ess my phone is two different communication systems

 

[Falstaff]

I have just tried to reorder my prescription on line and failed - I have to open an account with the NHS which requires ID proofs/photo-ID. They do at least recognise that not everyone has acceptable photo id or the sort of tech to send them a moving picture. (My OAP bus pass enables me to vote, but not register for medical care).
The fall back is your GP practice, which now has its own software system. (American owned and created by AI, paid for by the NHS at secret UK blanket prices).

Down the disturbing rabbit hole - "Approved by the NHS" claimed of course, no declared owner or establishment date, no public security certifications, no statement on using live patient data to train the AI, or where.
Had poor Trust pilot ratings until this year, when it took over sending in the reviews to Trust Pilot itself - 88% plus of which were redirected reviews from it's own US website, and all glowing positive ones.

I'm sticking to delivering paper prescription requests to my GP practice.

 

[mrmike]

Can someone remind me of the name of that incredible man who taught us lock picking at the recent summer Moot.

He is a professional social hacker and said, in conversation:

There are two kinds of business in the world: those that have been hacked by the Chinese and those who don’t know that they have been hacked by the Chinese.

I do not believe that any passworded system it’s safe from a government level attack.

However I still use passwords systems and would do so for an ev charger if I had an ev.

I believe in air buffers and brass padlocks to delay a hacker.
I believe that my lack of significance will also delay hacker interest.

That was Ed

 

[Woody girl]

So who got the no bbq's alert and thought we all had minutes to live?
I didn't even read it just hit OK and went back to my crossword.
Incidently another fire along the path into town yesterday. That's 3 now in two weeks. I complained to the council that the dead leaves need removing, so they got a chap with a blower to blow them into big piles at the side of the path instead, and lo, yet another burn.
I do smoke, but, if I have one while out, I carry a small tin and put my butt ends in that. I then carry them home with me and dispose of in the bin. Not difficult realy.
You'd have thought after the first fire, people would get the idea. But no, it keeps happening and the council do nothing but make bigger piles of leaves.
It's like it's deliberate stupidity. I'm worried someone is going to do it at night when no one is around to notice and act.
I've decided to make some fire beaters. I have foraged some hazel poles, and I have a coffee sack, so I'll just cut it into large squares and staple and wire it to the poles. All I'll need then is to wet it with water, and I have a beater, that will eke out a bucket of water much further.
I'm sure these can be improvised better, but its what I have to hand for now.

 

[GeraldTheBonsai]

What happened to fire beaters? I remember as a kid, you would go out in the country, and sure enough, there would be a rack with fire beaters in. Gone. Probably Health & Safety...

 

[Falstaff]

So who got the no bbq's alert and thought we all had minutes to live?

Somehow I don't get these national panic alerts, which is fine by me.

Be Alert! Britain needs Lerts! - Sorry this should be in the Dire Jokes thread.....

I like your fire beaters idea, but don't take risks as you'll get no thanks for putting out a fire. We are no longer spring chickens and our lungs are simply not as good as they were, so we are more at risk from smoke inhalation.
If it's next to your property or a direct risk to it fine, or maybe wait until the neighbours fence has started to burn and the rats run out...

 

[Woody girl]

True, I remember seeing them in the past, but not for years.
They are usualy made of heavy rubber. Thinking you could use a rubber door mat cut in half to make a couple of fire beaters easy enough. Tried to find where I could buy one localy, but everywhere is out of stock, and the only ones left are from specialist firms and cost about £40 or more. Cheap if you are in a vunerable area I guess, and you don't need a bucket of water to keep wetting the sacking as in my version. I've also thought those knapsack sprayers might come in useful.., but they only hold about 5 litres. Again very cheap to buy. I think I paid a tenner for mine.
If I had a spare one, I'd have used some cut up fire blanket to make one. Probably better than a damp bit of sacking. . I think we should be making them and have them on standby if like me, you live in a susceptible area. Never hurts to be prepared. It's not a usual summer, so we do need to up our preparedness.
I'm off to get some sandbags next week as I think when the rain comes, we are going to have a lot of flooding in areas that normaly don't flood, due to the rain not being able to soak away, and storm drains getting overwhelmed.
When we had that big storm a while back and the monsoon conditions actualy flooded areas in the town that have never been flooded before. The river running past my front door was several inches deep, but luckily my drive slopes away from the house.. a friend has a drive that slopes towards her house and her garage flooded.. she now has sand bags, a bit late for that particular storm, but she's now ready for anything coming down the line. I just need a couple to block off my back gate, as water has a tendency to flow down the steep path at the side of the house like a river, and under my gate, even tho it's side on to the path. My back door is only a couple of feet away from the gate, so it's time I remedied this.

 

[Pattree]

That used to be a winter job in the Forestry Commission - making fire beaters. They were sort of heavy weight besoms. Bloody lethal if You hadn’t been trained to use it.

We’d tell enthusiastic Boy Scouts to follow an airborne bracken ember. By the time they reached where it landed there would be a small fire in yet more bracken. One mighty overhead swipe with a beater and the fire has spread in at least four directions.

One year someone had the brilliant idea of making them from conveyor belting:
Looked great
Handled great
However when called into action they went limp. Couldn’t take the heat.

 

[Woody girl]

Somehow I don't get these national panic alerts, which is fine by me.

Be Alert! Britain needs Lerts! - Sorry this should be in the Dire Jokes thread.....

I like your fire beaters idea, but don't take risks as you'll get no thanks for putting out a fire. We are no longer spring chickens and our lungs are simply not as good as they were, so we are more at risk from smoke inhalation.
If it's next to your property or a direct risk to it fine, or maybe wait until the neighbours fence has started to burn and the rats run out...

I'm one house away from a field and large trees. The field has 3 foot high dry standing hay. If that caught...it doesn't bear thinking about the path into town runs alongside this field.. its a worry as the fires are along this path, one was opposite the field and, but for quick thinking and actions of two young lasses, it could have easily have been a disaster as fire engines can't get near it..
I'm not taking any chances. My neighbours are keeping hoses connected to their outdoor taps . We are all concerned. Don't know who's causing the fires. All have been caught early as everyone uses the path, but we don't realy know who what pr why these fires have started. Never before in the 26 yrs I've lived here. We assume it's someone discarding lit ciggies. But we don't know. It could e en be deliberate.