National Risk Register/National Resilience Update - Nothing new to us.

[walker]

I'm confused? It's now OK to buy Russian gas? What about the massive supply of UK owned gas in the North Sea Oil Field north of Scotland?

You mean the north sea gas owed by gazprom

 

[Woody girl]

I think they should teach basic 'life skills' as a specific subject at school. Nothing complicated just a few simple things like being able to sew on a button or how to repair a rip in clothes. Other useful things which could be included are basic odd jobs like how to change a light bulb, rewire a plug, descale a kettle, replace the washer on a dripping tap and of course, how to tie a few basic knots. You know the type of things I mean. That would certainly be far more useful than some of the nonsense they seem to teach kids at school these days.

Definatly! Kids, and some adults need to learn how to do more than type words into a screen, wave a phone over a machine in a shop and press a microwave button.
These are the ones who will struggle massively.
Also, there is an entitled section of society, who have everything provided for free, who will not hesitate to just take what they want, and many natives will follow the example if they are so inclined, ie no skills, self entitlement etc.
Unfortunately these people will be a majority, especially in certain areas like large towns.
The recent experience of the Spanish enclave in Morocco shows what we could be up against. Growing a garden and sewing your own clothes will not be enough to keep on a relatively even keel.
To be honest, we should all be worried at how fragile our infrastructure is after years of neglect and money making by privatised companies, a rising non native population with veiws on life that differ massively from the norm, and a government that is basically just flailing around with no idea (or ignoring) how we as the people of this land want to live.
Frankly, im feeling , (despite it's problems,) nostalgic for the 1960 and 70's
even with the threat of atomic war that was very real then.
Maybe im just old, tired and jaded, but they do say, with age, comes wisdom..not sure if it's completely true. I know many people my age andolder who just refuse to see any further than the fact that they have always had someone else come to the rescue and still expect it.
Present company of us old codgers excepted.

 

[Pattree]

Maybe im just old, tired and jaded, but they do say, with age, comes wisdom..not sure if it's completely true.

It may be true but it’s true of a world that no longer exists. This world belongs to a new generation.

As we ancients shuffle along towards the end of the twig we tend to hold onto a wisdom that served us well when the world was ours. Now we have opinions - should we be asked - but the world of our prime (physical and mental) no longer exists.

My opinion
There should be an age at which politicians can no longer hold office other than in an advisory capacity. They do not live in their constituents world.
I’m not sure what that age should be.

If anyone is going to see us through a crisis that we cannot yet imagine or predict, they will be very much younger than me and armed with a set of tools that again, I probably cannot imagine

In the meantime I shall remember slide rules, fountain pens and scout hats with brims and be grateful for all the things created by younger brains that are keeping me alive.

 

[TLM]

It may be true but it’s true of a world that no longer exists. This world belongs to a new generation.

True but not always for the better.

I am an aerospace structural and materials engineer by education and a lot of other things by experience. Some years ago I participated in a project with lots of computer FEM simulations. The young guys who did the models - certainly better than I could - where always wondering how I could foretell results qualitatively and some even quantitatively. No magic there, just an awful lot of designs done during the years. For some reason computer modeling does not give one quite the experience "hand" calculations do and especially experiments, maybe in the end but not very fast.

 

[GeraldTheBonsai]

As we ancients shuffle along towards the end of the twig we tend to hold onto a wisdom that served us well when the world was ours. Now we have opinions - should we be asked - but the world of our prime (physical and mental) no longer exists.

Under normal circumstances, I would agree with you - things move on and the baton of knowledge is passed on to the next generation. Its why we train people - to pass on skills and knowledge, on the understanding that they will improve it.

However, thats not really the scenario here. In the event of some major catastrophe, the challenge is not progress - its recovery. As such, you are either looking to keep existing systems going, or actually reverting to an earlier solution. That will require reusing older knowledge, not new. A generation that is totally fluent on modern tech, and dependant on it, may well be smarter that someone older. But those smarts have no utility, if that tech is no longer available.

 

[Falstaff]

Picked this out of an email from a friend who’s running NEB showings in her area. There’s serious opposition to companies and the government making people aware.

“There is a serious question… about why the public hasn’t been made aware of this assessment,”he said.

A very bleak report released in 2024, projecting a risk of catastrophic failure by 2030. So serious in fact, that they shut down the Futures team entirely asap in early 2025, and buried it.

House of Lords written reply:
"Since then, horizon scanning and futures analysis have been undertaken by evidence and analytical teams across the Department, supported by work within Defra’s arm’s length bodies.
Accountability for climate related risk assessment sits with Defra’s climate adaptation teams, which lead the Climate Change Risk Assessment and the National Adaptation Programme."

i.e nobody is accountable for the risks highlighted by the report, besides climate related ones. So if Labour goes to full term, the next general election will be in 2029, and the potential crash in 2030 will be blamed on the next Govt. not this current one.!

 

[Pattree]

However, thats not really the scenario here. In the event of some major catastrophe, the challenge is not progress - its recovery.

I disagree.
We (all of us of all generations) can’t go back to some self determining idyl.

Whatever form this putative catastrophe takes, the solution will lie with modern minds working with modern materials to create modern solutions no matter how simple those solutions turn out to be.

(For example - There simply isn’t enough wood growing on this island to develop a Bushcraft solution for us all.)

True but not always for the better.

Not worse, just different from ours.
Generation after generation has despaired of the next one, right back to Socrates and beyond.

 

[Woody girl]

It may be true but it’s true of a world that no longer exists. This world belongs to a new generation.

As we ancients shuffle along towards the end of the twig we tend to hold onto a wisdom that served us well when the world was ours. Now we have opinions - should we be asked - but the world of our prime (physical and mental) no longer exists.

My opinion
There should be an age at which politicians can no longer hold office other than in an advisory capacity. They do not live in their constituents world.
I’m not sure what that age should be.

If anyone is going to see us through a crisis that we cannot yet imagine or predict, they will be very much younger than me and armed with a set of tools that again, I probably cannot imagine

In the meantime I shall remember slide rules, fountain pens and scout hats with brims and be grateful for all the things created by younger brains that are keeping me alive.

But we have to ask ourselves WHY it no longer exists. It's because attitudes have changed, respect for older people is now passe no longer seen as a good thing, changing demographics, that have changed our towns and cities, schooling that no longer teaches skills , or respect, and push agendas that are not belonging to our way of life.pandering to children to identify as cats, and providing litter boxes in the toilets for them , my goodness, i had lots of fantasies as a kid, i was a tomboy, liked to dress up and pretend i was fictional characters like cat woman.
If I lived as a child today, I would be a transgender cat! Thank god I was allowed to live out my fantasies untill I became bored with them and grew up instead of being taken seriously.

 

[Pattree]

I think I understand you @Woody girl .

But we have to ask ourselves WHY it no longer exists.

That world no longer exists for the same reason that your grandparents world no longer exists

We need to step outside of our own value set when assessing the merit or otherwise of scenarios to which they no longer apply.

I’ve quoted Socrates elsewhere here, on his concern that a younger generation does not respect the older. It has ever been thus.

My father disdained anyone who couldn’t add a column of money entries at the speed of a moving pencil and that was £ s d! He lamented the fact that I never learned my 16 times table.

Our generation was criticised in exactly the same way by the one before.

Today the internet is amplifying/ exaggerating the scenarios that concern us. I think that others have mentioned “The engagement algorithm.”

It doesn’t matter that some of us don’t have computers, we are surrounded by the views of the majority who do. Negativity has always been more popular and therefore more prevalent than positivity. This spiral powers many of our news feeds.

TODAY WAS ONE OF THE HAPPIEST ON RECORD. 99% OF BRITONS CONTENT.
= Happy newspaper in receivership!

Even this thread is feeding and contributing to the negative assessment spiral of an entire generation as our views are picked up by all kinds of data harvesters - including us.

 

[Woody girl]

My great grandma was born in the late 1800s.
She saw everything change in her lifetime dieing at 103 yrs old.
Things got better and easier for her during her lifetime..
Would you say life is better and easier nowadays than it was 50 yrs ago, let alone 103?
We have many things that make life lazier, but we are working harder and harder to be able to afford things which could, and often do easily fail..
How many mobile phones has a single person owned? My grans phone lasted 50 yrs. She never had to earn more money to replace it because the battery died or it got hacked.
The simpler life of yore has a lot more going for it than modern life. You could walk around without fear of being assaulted or graped. Children could play outside and roam free all day with nobody being too worried about them. Yes accidents did happen, but generally kids were taught common sense and were able to cope with stuff if things happened. and grew up to be competent well rounded adults with a work ethic and took their responsibility seriously. Even if they had been a bit feral growing up.


Nowadays that is not how we live. Children can't go to a park alone in many areas. Women are scared to go out... men are quite rude and often aggressive...I've experienced this last one several times even where I live. Entitlement is rife.
We have as a country lost our way. There are pockets of sanity, peace , but I do wonder how long it's all gonna last.
I'm involved with my local church.. we have 10 members, all bar two are retired.
We have an exhibition coming up about the church, and it's history, which is fascinating, the old photos, even going back to the sixties show it full of children, and people of all ages.
Now it's barely functioning.

Now, everyone has a right to their beliefs, but this avidly pictures the decline of everyday values, and basic teaching of respect and community cohesion.
I'd love to see a vibrant Sunday school, picnics, shared meals , afternoon tea and crocquet as we had within my memory..
It was a gentler time and nobody was worried about much at all.
I had no money, but good friends, and community support if I needed any help with anything.
Nowadays,nobody cares or bothers to see if im coping when im ambulances in, in the middle of the night. Nobody checks when I get home. Except one or two church members.
Most, sadly even amongst them, they are too busy keeping afloat to worry about someone else. A lot has been lost. Not for the better either.
I know all places are not the same, but, I've seen it happening even here, a slow dripping away of the community spirit, and care for others outside the immediate family circle. I find it dispiriting..
Not that people are being deliberately mean, just that the constant paddling to stay afloat at the pace modern life demands, just leaves no time for anyone else.
Life is ever gonna be perfect on this earth, but the complexity of modern life makes everything much more difficult, rather than easier.. I don't quite know how to explain it, especially to younger people who know no different. But im sad to see the old ways just thrown away in the name of progress.
There is a nice chap started an retro furniture business here about a year ago, telling me he wanted to get away from everything city and live a rural lifestyle and feel safer. My town was where it was at.
He is now selling up. People don't buy his wife's £ 60 handmade lampshades, (and that's the small ones) and are not into buying pricy retro furniture. He's going back to the city. Seen it so many times. City folk discovered a rural idyllic, think it's wonderful, all retro rosy tinted specs, and within a year they are gone because they still bring modern city thinking, rather than actualy slowing down to a rural pace and income, and actualy providing a business locals want and need.
OK, time for me to shut up! I'm just an uneducated country girl, what do I know?
Oh BTW, some do make it, but its rare!

 

[Pattree]

OK, time for me to shut up! I'm just an uneducated country girl, what do I know?

One of the educational changes of the times might be that Socratean Irony is no longer taught in English lessons.

That, @Woody girl, is a beautiful example! Like you, Socrates would respond to a proposition saying:”I know nothing about this but …….. And then go on to ask penetrating questions that showed that he was very knowledgeable.

I wonder what your great great grandparents thought of your grandparents’ world.

I wonder what our grandchildren will think of their grandchildren’s world?

 

[GeraldTheBonsai]

I think there are two different perspectives here, that are related, but not the same thing.

I grew up in the 60's and 70's. Subjectively, I feel that this was a "better" time compared to the current world we live in. But this is forgetting all of the advances that we have today that we didn't have back then, or the social conditions we lived in, which today would be regarded as downright poverty. So yes I agree, its easy to look back on the past through rosey glasses and wish for a time that has long gone, because frankly, to many, its no longer relevant - today is clearly "better".

However, the other perspective is not the looking back to a time with a sort of longing. As reflected in the Risk Register, our modern society is dependant on many interlinked bits of infrastructure. The question is then what would happen if some or a large percentage of that infrastructure were to fail. One argument that has been expressed is that lots of modern brains would be able to come up with equivalent or better solutions to those that we currently have. To a degree I would agree with that, but would caveat it by saying that it would depend on the scale of any failure.

For example, losing local power for a few days or weeks, yes people would ideally rally round, come up with local solution, with the expectation that power would be restored at some point in the future and life would continue. However, in a more extreme scenario, such as a Carrington Event, the power system would be irreparably damaged, to the extend that you would struggle to bootstrap yourself back to normality. In this situation, you can have as many clever modern people that you like, but it makes no different - you no longer have the tools needed ro recover.

I would not call this a negative assessment, but rather a realistic one. If you plan for the worst, anything else is a win.

 

[Woody girl]

Just give me a dog, horse, veg garden and no close crammed in neighbours, a doctor i can get to see when needed, a small town for shopping about 4/5 miles away by bus, and a moped, a good log burner or multifuel stove, and maybe a solid fuel aga. A phone that works in a power cut.
A massive filled bookcase, ability to craft. Nice country walks from my door. Like minded friends, enough of a pension to get by. Thats utopia for me..... My child, and teenhood.... Don't want or need more.
.

 

[Woody girl]

I think there are two different perspectives here, that are related, but not the same thing.

I grew up in the 60's and 70's. Subjectively, I feel that this was a "better" time compared to the current world we live in. But this is forgetting all of the advances that we have today that we didn't have back then, or the social conditions we lived in, which today would be regarded as downright poverty. So yes I agree, its easy to look back on the past through rosey glasses and wish for a time that has long gone, because frankly, to many, its no longer relevant - today is clearly "better".

However, the other perspective is not the looking back to a time with a sort of longing. As reflected in the Risk Register, our modern society is dependant on many interlinked bits of infrastructure. The question is then what would happen if some or a large percentage of that infrastructure were to fail. One argument that has been expressed is that lots of modern brains would be able to come up with equivalent or better solutions to those that we currently have. To a degree I would agree with that, but would caveat it by saying that it would depend on the scale of any failure

I think it's the interconnectedness that is the problem.. it will eventually be our downfall, especially as you say, a Carrington event, or a massive security hack. We are realy compromised, but ignore it for the sake of convenience.
It's a dangerous disassociation of our brains, fueled by the story of a better life..

I know two old boys, local and worked and still live the rural lifestyle. They are the happiest people I know. Few mod cons, they realy keep me sane.. i can have conversations with them. Most others, especially women, i cannot find anything to talk about. But then I've spent most of my life outdoors working in a largely male environment. Not behind a till, or in an office typing out letters..
Another thing that progress hasn't made better..nursing.. not medicine , nursing, they spend more time on their dammed computers than actualy nursing, don't even make beds nowadays, just throw a blanket at you and you have to do it yourself.
once the older generation have gone, so much will go with them. Lost for ever, apart from a very few younger adults who keep the old ways alive in their lives . I'd be happy to be proved wrong ..

 

[E by Gum]

Having any regard for old folk isn't passe. Yes some don't care but some never have.

 

[Pattree]

My childhood world? No thank you! To start with I’d be dead.

I (and all of us dinner or later) need medication that took huge efforts to develop and an industry which employs millions. I need diagnostic machinery that takes the guessing out of prognosis.

I need access to information about the Universe that I live in and to the thinking of scientists and philosophers. Not for it to be hidden and only for academics.

I need a world that doesn’t run on coal.

I need a world that doesn’t commit an unmarried mother to an asylum or castigate someone who loves one of their own sex.

I need a nation that doesn’t believe that it has the right to exploit all the other nations it can dominate.

I need a world where I am free to think and not be ostracised by my village for not joining their philosophical group.

I need to reach out to others who think differently from me and can give me viewpoints on current affairs so that I don’t just have a local opinion of what is happening in the world.

In my 80th year I desperately need to learn.

Edited to add:
Yes indeed, there are at least two themes going on in this thread:

Conjecture as to what might happen in a major infrastructure failure.

And

The proposition that the solution can be found by taking an historical approach (and that a younger generation couldn’t handle it while those with grey hair could.)

 

[Woody girl]

Having any regard for old folk isn't passe. Yes some don't care but some never have.

Go to Turkey or Greece and see how older folk are respected and treated by their families.generaly. obviously a few fall through the cracks as with any society. I think a lot of our modern disregard was instigated and fueled by the workhouse system. Oh they will get scraped up by them so don't worry.

Our society be came cruel and heartless towards those lesswell off, sick or injured and unable to keep working. ( Look at the amount of our veterans on the street,) off to the workhouse to break rocks or pick tallow.
We don't have workhouse now, as their charity eventualy was abolished, as it was cruel. Instead we just let them survive or not on the streets, and wonder why the useless oiks have a drink and drug problem.
God give me strength!

 

[Broch]

When I was a teenager I used to wonder why the old folk were so bitter, especially towards teenagers and youngsters; now I'm old I wonder why my generation are so bitter towards teenagers and youngsters!

We are bombarded by negative news - stuff went on when we were kids, it just wasn't sensationalised.

I've learnt not to expect others to think like me, I have no right to. Chill out and smile. Engage in the issues you can actually make a difference to, everything else is just a waste of breath.

 

[Woody girl]

My childhood world? No thank you! To start with I’d be dead.

I (and all of us dinner or later) need medication that took huge efforts to develop and an industry which employs millions. I need diagnostic machinery that takes the guessing out of prognosis.

I need access to information about the Universe that I live in and to the thinking of scientists and philosophers. Not for it to be hidden and only for academics.

I need a world that doesn’t run on coal.

I need a world that doesn’t commit an unmarried mother to an asylum or castigate someone who loves one of their own sex.

I need a nation that doesn’t believe that it has the right to exploit all the other nations it can dominate.

I need a world where I am free to think and not be ostracised by my village for not joining their philosophical group.

I need to reach out to others who think differently from me and can give me viewpoints on current affairs so that I don’t just have a local opinion of what is happening in the world.

In my 80th year I desperately need to learn.

Edited to add:
Yes indeed, there are at least two themes going on in this thread:

Conjecture as to what might happen in a major infrastructure failure.

And

The proposition that the solution can be found by taking an historical approach (and that a younger generation couldn’t handle it while those with grey hair could.)

I agree with some of your points. I think medicine itself has improved massively, it the system that is now at breaking point. When you can't get what you need because of shortages, as my recent aspirin debacle showed for instance.
I'm not advocating everyone has a historical approach to life, or indeed should live in that manner, but the migration to big cities and the encroachment into rural communities is all too evident. The village i lived in as a kid, 900 residents no longer has the fields it once had. My old home with a large garden is now 2 small homes, two tiny gardens surrounded by other houses. Population has more than tripled. I'd not go back there for all the money in China!

 

[GreyCat]

I think it's the interconnectedness that is the problem.. it will eventually be our downfall, especially as you say, a Carrington event, or a massive security hack. We are realy compromised, but ignore it for the sake of convenience.
It's a dangerous disassociation of our brains, fueled by the story of a better life..

I know two old boys, local and worked and still live the rural lifestyle. They are the happiest people I know. Few mod cons, they realy keep me sane.. i can have conversations with them. Most others, especially women, i cannot find anything to talk about. But then I've spent most of my life outdoors working in a largely male environment. Not behind a till, or in an office typing out letters..
Another thing that progress hasn't made better..nursing.. not medicine , nursing, they spend more time on their dammed computers than actualy nursing, don't even make beds nowadays, just throw a blanket at you and you have to do it yourself.
once the older generation have gone, so much will go with them. Lost for ever, apart from a very few younger adults who keep the old ways alive in their lives . I'd be happy to be proved wrong ..

Ah, the Religion of Progress...............

My childhood world? No thank you! To start with I’d be dead.

I (and all of us dinner or later) need medication that took huge efforts to develop and an industry which employs millions. I need diagnostic machinery that takes the guessing out of prognosis.

I need access to information about the Universe that I live in and to the thinking of scientists and philosophers. Not for it to be hidden and only for academics.

I need a world that doesn’t run on coal.

I need a world that doesn’t commit an unmarried mother to an asylum or castigate someone who loves one of their own sex.

I need a nation that doesn’t believe that it has the right to exploit all the other nations it can dominate.

I need a world where I am free to think and not be ostracised by my village for not joining their philosophical group.

I need to reach out to others who think differently from me and can give me viewpoints on current affairs so that I don’t just have a local opinion of what is happening in the world.

In my 80th year I desperately need to learn.

Edited to add:
Yes indeed, there are at least two themes going on in this thread:

Conjecture as to what might happen in a major infrastructure failure.

And

The proposition that the solution can be found by taking an historical approach (and that a younger generation couldn’t handle it while those with grey hair could.)

There's technological progress, economic progress and social progress. They move together.............

- Social progress: it's not the level of tolerance that's changed, it's the taboos are different.

I would argue that the peak of tolerance was about 25 years ago when campaigns for core social inequality were won. However, a new intolerance rose from the ashes of the successful campaigns..... if you don't agree with the predominant social narrative, you are an evil person these days. Gone are the days when one could have civilised disagreement. Social media seems to be a big driver- polarising views. Disagreement has become very tribal. Instead of shaming out-of-wedlock birth, we "cancel" those who won't believe that a person can turn into a cat...... or won't entertain the suggestion that if you import 10m more people, you might just need to deal with the requirement for more infrastructure otherwise you get problems..... etc etc etc same intolerance, different taboos.

- Economic progress seems to be about "growth" which is not possible on a planet with finite resources. "Growth" being about consuming more and more. Culture teaches people to want things NOW rather than save up and wait for it. Success judged by how much "stuff" is accumulated, or the type of stuff (e.g. car type/brand). There is the idea (started by Jack Welch) that business must do anything to maximise shareholder growth irrespective of the damage caused- and so we have offshoring and loss of local jobs, an aircraft manufacturer hiding quality issues, and exploitation of people to produce this high-consumption lifestyle that is sold (and mostly believed) as being desirable.

- Technological progress. Some good stuff, but also a lot of incremental and me-too updates. Quite a few downsides which are not really topics we are allowed to talk about. We get what we are given- works for the people selling it but maybe not all the users. Not much discussion of whether an "update" really is a benefit for the end user. Often the costs are hidden- e.g. we don't see the waste from refining rare earth metals as that's on the other side of the world, we are just glad we don't have exhaust fumes in our town (moving from ICE to EV in this case). We don't ask whether the technology is addressing the problem or finding a problem to solve, often by generating desire for something we didn't know we wanted/needed (because actually- we didn't/don't).


Overall....... the speed and demands of life increase, everything is more fragile, the local environment is noisier and angrier, social connections are impacted. Many folks won't notice for a while as they are insulated by their stuff and social status, but others do realise. Some realise sooner- like @Woody girl - and are in effect the canaries in the coal mine.

I follow the writings of John Michael Greer, some very thought provoking stuff, and based on the idea that we have effectively adopted "progress" as a religion to replace Christianity. (He is seen by some as a bit controversial as he correctly predicted that Trump would beat Clinton- in some eyes this made him a supporter of Trump, when in fact he just studied the ACTUAL social vibes and made predictions from what was really going on rather than the wishful thinking media reports).

His novel "Retrotopia" is an interesting read. As are some of his non-fiction works e.g. "The Long Descent: A users guide to the end of the world." He is not a catastrophist, rather he looks at history and how empires fell to predict how western civilisation might end up (spoiler: it's a gradual crumble as demands outrun available resources, not a sudden bang). He also has an interesting blog- Ecosophia.

GC