Global Warming

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What do you think about Global Warming?

  • We caused it and we must try to fix it.

    Votes: 32 21.5%
  • We caused it but there's not much we can do about it.

    Votes: 8 5.4%
  • I'm not sure what caused it.

    Votes: 11 7.4%
  • What Global Warming?

    Votes: 5 3.4%
  • It's a natural cycle and nothing to worry about.

    Votes: 16 10.7%
  • It's a natural cycle and we need to adapt.

    Votes: 77 51.7%

  • Total voters
    149
  • Poll closed .
A

Antonia

Guest
Please read the science a little more carefully. We are at the moment in a generally cooling part of the Milankovitch cycle. In fact the rapidly warming phase of the cycle happened about ten thousand years ago and we seem to have come through that OK. But before everyone gets all excited about that and starts thinking that it's the answer to our prayers, we all need to understand the science. Or, failing that, at least the graphs. We have another 100,000 years to wait before we can hope for any help from our Serbian friend.

In very handwaving terms, the Milankovitch cycle describes observations of several, different, superimposed cyclic fluctuations which result in cyclic (although complex) changes in global surface temperatures of the order of ten degrees Celsius. These changes take place over something like 100,000 years. This means that as far as Milankovitch cycles are concerned, we are discussing changes in the order of 0.0001 degrees Celsius per year or 0.1 degrees per millennium.

The global warming that we're worried about in this thread, whatever the source(s), is happening at a rate of about 0.1 degrees in five years, that is a couple of hundred times faster than anything that Milankovitch can explain. It's much more worrying, because while Milankovitch explains a cyclic tendency of a few degrees over hundreds of thousands of years, the global warming that we see now is not cyclic and it's happening a lot faster. As far as we know at the moment, for all intents and purposes it's permanent, and the physics places no arbitrary limit of a few degrees on the actual temperature rise. We really could be talking eventually about a surface temperature on the Earth which would boil water. It's like that on Venus right now -- the mean surface temperature there is about 460 degrees Celsius. It's primarily the CO2 in Venus' atmosphere which heats the surface to that level, it's not just because of the distance from the sun. Venus is twice as far from the sun as Mercury and so receives only one quarter of the insolation that Mercury receives. But Venus is generally hotter than Mercury because Mercury has no atmosphere to speak of.

All the science I'm describing here is readily accessible on the Internet, see Wikipedia for example, and it is not seriously disputed.

We are now seeing changes in human timescales which should only be happening in geological timescales. It is staggeringly difficult to make deliberate changes to the planet of this order of magnitude, but the consensus is that we've managed to do it. If we stand by and do nothing while these changes continue then the time will probably come, and soon, when we will be unable to do anything effective to reverse them. By then we will at least have a pretty good idea of when the end will come, and what it will be like.
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Yes..Correct Ged,

Antonia
 

No Idea

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Sep 18, 2010
2,420
0
Dorset
Er....

How does CO2 raise the surface temperature and keep it up?

Perhaps if I understood how CO2 causes heat, rather than the Sun, I might be able to follow what you are talking about.
 

British Red

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Dec 30, 2005
26,740
1,989
Mercia
Really people, all the anger is fairly pointless. Either the world is changing, or it isn't. None of us know.

Before anyone screams that they do, it had better be because they, personally, have made all the measurements and done the maths, otherwise, its just faith in someone elses work and the interpretation of the raw data. You don't KNOW that the climate is chaniging, you have chosen to adhere to proofs you have not verified for yourself.

As soon as you acknowledge this to be true, can you not acknowledge that getting all high and mighty just because someone chooses to believe a different set of data (that they have not checked) is pretty silly.

Even if people accept in Global Warming, a set of measurements proves an effect, not a cause. All the interpretation of raw data that guesses that the cause is man made are just that - guess work. I believe a climate system is so complex that direct causal analysis is impossible.

So it boils down to faith, with all the mouth frothing bile that acts of faith engender.

However lets set aside the fact that most of the adherants accept the measurements as being beyond question (even though they have never checked them), and then accept an interpretation of those measurements into a cause that has not and cannot be proved, lets get to the "so what"?

Where is the globally accepted plan to address the problem. If this stuff is so clear, how come that no major nation has accepted these truths or acted upon them in any way that is truly meaningful? Do we really believe that the whole of mankind has a death wish? Or do we believe the scientific community are the worst communicators in history? Because, if this is truly such a cataclysmic event, it must be one or the other!

Red
 

Gavmar

Life Member
Jan 24, 2010
413
0
Dagenham Essex

wingstoo

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
May 12, 2005
2,274
40
South Marches
I have hi-jacked the following from another forum (US forums can throw so much into a debate) Apologies in advance for the use of bad language.

http://www.survivalistboards.com/showthread.php?t=140150&highlight=Gulf+stream

Quote:
Originally Posted by goose3
Interesting...

I saw this about 2 months ago, a prediction by Polish scientists that northern Europe would endure its coldest winter in 1000 years:

http://rt.com/news/prime-time/coldes...ency-measures/

I'm very, very interested in following this.

Many global warming models have noted that a shutdown in the Gulf Stream, the north Atlantic current that warms Europe to winter temperatures that are much warmer than they should be, given the actual latitude (see what part of the United States to which London is latitudinally-equivalent), would cause a huge cool-down of Europe.

The concern is that freshwater melt from Greenland and icecaps would interfere with the currents, shutting down what's known as the North Atlantic conveyor. If that happens, Europe is in a world of hurt.

Of course, this is why Europe has always been much more concerned about global climate change than people in other areas of the world.

Im a climatology major and had to do a thesis on the North Atlantic Deep Water and NOOOO your "Day after tomorrow" movie hollywood crap is NOT TRUE. There are people who do NOT have the facts on that conveyor belt and b/c they dont they can vomit out whatever limited information they wanted and people will panic on it. Ignorance is not bliss its material for panic!

The truth is that the conveyor is fine and thats ONLY because climatologists who have been studying it for YEARS with even their LIMITED knowledge have been tracking it. NO the belt of water will not falter. The ONLY real thing that could change the track of this conveyor was a continent moving and cutting it off. That wont happen in the blink of an eye so I am sure we will get some warnings. Hollywood got it wrong and so are all those stupid A-holes spewing their climate change nonsense! They have lied about the data and changed the results so they can be paid gov't funds. PLEASE stop believing the BS and go ask an expert in the field! They live at your very own Universities across the US!!! UGH!!! I hate misinformation!!!
 

andybysea

Full Member
Oct 15, 2008
2,609
0
South east Scotland.
British Reds last post on page 6 of this thread made the most sense to me, i agree. Just what are we supposed to do,eg live like third world countries oursleves,or let them catch up with us and burn more fossil fuel? and just who do you believe when there are two scientific views on this?, ive said it in previous posts sort of jokingly, but when the Government(especially in this country) start saying this is going to cost x amount,and this is what we are all going to have to do, i imediately smell a (lets make some more cash from the masses) rat.
 

ged

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Jul 16, 2009
4,981
15
In the woods if possible.
Er....

How does CO2 raise the surface temperature and keep it up?

Perhaps if I understood how CO2 causes heat, rather than the Sun, I might be able to follow what you are talking about.

Have you got a greenhouse? I know you're not as dumb as you're trying to make out. :)
 

ged

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Jul 16, 2009
4,981
15
In the woods if possible.
Really people, all the anger is fairly pointless. Either the world is changing, or it isn't. None of us know.

Um, no, quite a few of us know but we have a dickens of a job getting people to open their minds wide enough to accept the evidence.

Before anyone screams that they do, it had better be because they, personally, have made all the measurements and done the maths, otherwise, its just faith in someone elses work...

What complete poppycock. Do you wonder anyone gets angry in the face of such childish denial of the obvious? Did you even look at the population graph that I linked to? Have you not yourself, in this very thread, used statistics about the human population?

There's no maths to do. It's as plain as the nose on my face. I've been told I have a rather large nose.

As soon as you acknowledge this to be true, can you not acknowledge that getting all high and mighty ... is pretty silly.

1. It isn't true.
2. I'm not sure that anybody is getting high and mighty.
3. None of this is silly, unless you think it's silly to think about the long-term survival of life on this planet.

Where is the globally accepted plan to address the problem. If this stuff is so clear, how come that no major nation has accepted these truths or acted upon them in any way that is truly meaningful?

Well my explanation for that is that it's a democracy, and on the evidence of this poll so far only about 25% of people are persuaded that there's anything to worry about.

Do we really believe that the whole of mankind has a death wish? Or do we believe the scientific community are the worst communicators in history? Because, if this is truly such a cataclysmic event, it must be one or the other!

I think probably both are true.

What if I said I could destroy a city with five grammes of hydrogen? Would you think I'm crazy? You see, I actually know how to do that.
 

No Idea

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Sep 18, 2010
2,420
0
Dorset
Have you got a greenhouse? I know you're not as dumb as you're trying to make out. :)

Ive built a few greenhouses, but never owned one. Ive worked in horticulture but only in maintenance and ground clearance type posts.

You are right. I am far from dumb.
I studied Physics to GCE, but dropped Biology and Chemistry, as I couldnt do all three. I sort of specialise in mechanical things.

Im not interested in getting involved in an argument.

That said, I really do not understand the global warming argument. The comments I have made on here are not a wind up. They are what I believe. I really do not understand why many people believe that global warming exists.

I am open minded and more than a little aware that I am ignorant in this area and am completely prepared to listen to anything you have to say that will explain what you believe and why.

Should my current beliefs prove to be faulty, I will change them to whatever makes more sense to me.

You may have to explain slowly though....

So I can keep up.
 

No Idea

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Sep 18, 2010
2,420
0
Dorset
I happened to be discussing this with mother tonight, who said she watched a prog on TV, where they heated up a container of CO2 and another of air, with the same amount of heat and proved that the CO2 heated up quicker and held more heat.

Is that right?
 

British Red

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Dec 30, 2005
26,740
1,989
Mercia
Sorry Ged, you don't know, you believe. You see a consensus of minds that you believe have established a truth and you are resistant to people debating or refuting this truth that you have accepted as a matter of faith. You have no idea whether the numbers shown in that graph are accurate. You didn't count the data or assemble the graph, you are merely repeating what you have been told.

A couple of centuries back, the same arguments were applied by the church to shout down evolution as an alternate theory. Received and accepted wisdom was creationism. To challenge this was to hear the calls of "burn the heretic". I hear a lot of similar hysteria when anyone challenges science (the new religion).

At the end of the day, unless someone on this thread is actually a climatologist, it amounts to a bunch of people who are repeating or asserting what they have heard and not what they, personally, have established to be true. To repeat one theory, that you didn't personally study or observe or know to be true is fine. To deny someone the opportunity to do exactly the same with an alternate theory, or to get hot and bothered about it, is plain silly.

Red
 

No Idea

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Sep 18, 2010
2,420
0
Dorset
I cant talk for others.

I am not upset or in any way emotional. Im just very curious about this subject.
 

ged

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Jul 16, 2009
4,981
15
In the woods if possible.
...I really do not understand the global warming argument. The comments I have made on here are not a wind up. They are what I believe. I really do not understand why many people believe that global warming exists.

It exists. Without it, the average temperature on the Earth would be some 30 degrees Celsius lower than it is. You can read about it here, at your own pace.

I asked if you had a greenhouse because you asked why carbon dioxide made things hotter when it doesn't generate any heat. Well, glass doesn't generate any heat either, does it? But when the sun shines, it gets a lot warmer inside a greenhouse than it is outside, doesn't it? That's because the glass causes a greenhouse effect. Gases in the atmosphere do exactly the same thing, and they have been doing all the time they have been there. The thing is now, we're changing the composition of the atmosphere so its greenhouse effect is changing too. It couldn't really be simpler.

I happened to be discussing this with mother tonight, who said she watched a prog on TV, where they heated up a container of CO2 and another of air, with the same amount of heat and proved that the CO2 heated up quicker and held more heat.

Is that right?

No idea. Sorry. :) It's such a woolly description of what they did and what they measured that I couldn't really explain it. But a gas has a specific heat, in other words it takes energy to make it hotter. Anything does. We tend to compare things with water. Agriculturally speaking it takes one kilojoule to heat one kilogramme of water through one degree Celsius. For a gas things are a bit different, because a gas will expand when you heat it, if you let it. So for example you can measure the specific heat of a gas at constant volume (the pressure increases as you heat the gas), or at constant pressure (the volume increases), and the two measurements give different answers. See for example the tables here. But none of this has much to do with the greenhouse effect.

Sorry again, I have to be in the milking parlour early in the morning so I don't have more time for the forum tonight.
 

andybysea

Full Member
Oct 15, 2008
2,609
0
South east Scotland.
Ged, dont know if this is true of not,but im sure i heard it on a programme about climate change,dont volcano's naturaly cause global warming/and or cooling? or both,eg they release alot(way more than man) of gases? which would cause global warming? and a hell of alot of ash(way more than man) which means they would cause global cooling? point being from my point of view its a natural occurance?
 

No Idea

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Sep 18, 2010
2,420
0
Dorset
Thank you Ged.

Had a look at the wikipiedia link. lol. I was lost before I got to the end of the title.

I need it dumbed down some more.

I have stood in greenhouses. I know its hotter in them, although I have No Idea why. I can see how the heat can come in through the glass, but can see no reason why it doesnt go straight back out the same way. My guess is that it gets hot because hot air rises and it cant do that if its in a green house, so it gets sort of condensed instead.

How you apply that to some see though gasses that can move around is to me a mystery.

I do understand that water vapour is sort of white, as in clouds and this can reflect light and heat - I think.

I understand that if you heat anything it gets bigger. The coefficient of expansion for cast iron is 0.000019 x the change in temp per degree x the length in inches. I learned that for piston ring gaps and used to use it for the slots in railway lines for the fish plates too.

Thank you for taking the time to start on this. Milking parlours? lol spent a year mucking out calf pens when there wasnt any other work, and used to help in the dairies. My mum worked for the milk marketing board - before those pigging quotas.

If you have time to enlighten me further, I would apreciate it.
 

durulz

Need to contact Admin...
Jun 9, 2008
1,755
1
Elsewhere
Global climate change is, of course, a very serious subject.
Everyone agrees with that.
Debate is essential and vital to understanding -
It is the mark of civilisation and intelligence.
Sometimes that debate gets lively and intense.
Alas, this is often the case with contentious topics.
Though what is important is that discourse takes place.
Which is the strongpoint of this thread.
Apologies if my word/s offend.
That was never my intent.

:)
 

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