Climate Change???

[gb]

Personally i think global warmings a myth, like others have mentioned the earth goes through cycles if warm and cool periods such as the 'mini ice age' in the 1300's.
also i read somewhere (might have been on here) that the atmosphere had 8 times more co2 in it xmillion years ago (can't remenber exactly) but yet it was no warmer.
as for this winter, ive read on a few sites that its gonna be a cold one. i dont think anyone can really tell but i think they're basing it on the fact that america has had a an early and record breaking hurricane season, so the atlantic has pretty much blown itself meaning less inluence from there, and that there is very little sun activity which is somehow linked to colder winters.

cheers gb

 

[bombadil]

Referring to the last message, there have been a number of "little ice ages", most notably beginning in the 16th century, when the Thames froze over and Bruegel the Elder painted the famous "Hunters in the snow" picture, and this period went on for a further 200 years. Between 1690-1700 there was a more serious series of winters and cold summers, in Scotland up to 65% of the population starved. Looking at oxygen isotope data (Hays et al, 1976, I'd love to be able to reproduce the graph here!!), is a very pretty pattern which shows the fluctuations of climate over the last 500'000 years. This is itself of no major concern, it merely reflects changes which the earth goes through fairly regularly. What is of concern, however, is the fact that the 30% rise in atmospheric Co2 in the last hundred years is attributable directly to the activities of the human race. I'm not sure about "xmillion" years ago, but analysis of bubbles in the ice in Antarctica have shown that between 500BC and 1880 there was no change in CO2 levels in the atmosphere, up to 280ppm compared to the 360ppm in 1996 (up from 350ppm the previous year)........sounds like a bunch of scientific garble, but it's pretty scary stuff....

 

[leon-1]

gb, the climate does change periodically, but the point of this is the speed with which it is currently changing, in 1976 we had a summer which was absolutely blistering, I can remember the tar on the roads melting and the heat coming up through the soles of my shoes. However after that I can still recall having snow in Tunbridge Wells in the winter.

The point behind this is total change, summers don't appear that much hotter, but they do appear to be a fair amount more humid. Winters have changed totally in a relatively short space of time from being cold and snowy to being cold and wet (not really all that cold).

Also this year the Gulf Stream was reported to have shifted ever so slightly north which is why we are seeing some of the change that we are seeing. There have also been studies that say that levels of salinity in certain parts of our oceans and seas are dropping, and that El Nino is getting increasingly more violent, but all of these little changes over a very short space of time, as far as the planet is concerned anyway, does not normally bode well for us.

 

[Fluxus]

On a practical note this may be of interest to folks on the forum. Since lots of us are out and about noticing things changing, It might be a way to contribute to the body of evidence in the UK.

 

[karen]

I have to agree with the fact that there have been changes in our weather system, but this, I feel is part of our evolutionary cycle. We, as humans, have to take responsiblity for our part in this, but does that mean that we can stop it? Sometimes all we can do is reduce any more damage but are left with the damage that has already been done. DAMAGE LIMITATION!!
Having said that, how do we know that this isn't the way it's supposed to go? Are we, as a species, really that powerful/arrogant to belive that we have any control over the elements, even if we can influence them? Would this have happened anyway? We may have speeded it up a little but can we honestly say 'Its our fault'?

I live in South Wales and it's more or less always very cold and wet in the winter and I have found that you can't always rely on the season for animals and plants. This is something that I have always noticed, most years something is there early/late. That is the way of nature.

Very interesting question.

Kar

 

[Gary]

People read 'THE COMING GLOBAL SUPER STORM' all of these things are scientifically predicted, the brief warm up before the big freeze!

This isnt doom mongering this is fact, it is part of the earths natural cycle - although the top of the food chain parasite that we are we are hurrying it along!

 

[Keith_Beef]

I wonder how many of you have read "Hothouse Earth" by Gribben. I think maybe Bombadil has

This book explains pretty well the way the Milankovitch cycle (and the other cycle, whose name I forget) influence the Earth's climate.

The book also describes the research into CO2 content in the atmosphere, and how the release of carbon into the atmosphere can be traced (by differentiating the carbon isoptopes) back to wood burning and fossil-fuel burning.

As some have pointed out in this thread, Gaia will live, even if Man disappears... And we can't be sure that man will disappear. We're a pretty resourceful and resilient animal...

As for climate change, we can either do something about it, or just deal wth it.

It is unreasonable to expect the inhabitants of the third world to give up chasing the goals of lower infant mortality, better food, longer life expectancy, that the industrial nations enjoy.

When the inhabitants of China and Africa start consuming energy (as fossil fuel in the form of coal), to the extent that Europeans cosume energy, then the CO2 content of the atmosphere is going to take a such a leap, that the increase from 280ppm to 360ppm is going to look pretty insignificant.

Any interest focussed on the use of oil is a distraction; coal was the big contributor to CO2 until around 1930. It will be a vcontributor until around 2050 or 2070, but oil production (hence consumption) will have peaked, and coal consumption will still be increasing.

Keith.

 

[RovingArcher]

I don't pretend to know much about the subject, but would think that (1) volcanic eruption could increase CO2 levels in the atmosphere. A major eruption having a major effect on the concentration of CO2 and other gasses in our atmosphere. So, when several volcano's start rumbling and spewing noxious gasses into the atmosphere at the same time, such as is beginning to happen on the Pacific rim, there could be a significant increase in these so called greenhouse gasses, which would increase the temperatures of the Earth and hasten the melt off of the polar icecaps, which in turn can have significant influence on our weather. (Yes?-No?)

 

[gb]

leon-1, i agree that we must be having some effect on the rate of warming, but like karen said it cant be just down to us. i'm not saying that we should not try to cut co2 levels, but short of stopping the use of all fossil fuels across the world maybe were just wasting our time? but then they'll have run out within the century anyway so we'll have to use clean renewable sources.

cheers gb

 

[bombadil]

Hehe.... :rolmao:
Not read that yet, just a student of Conservation and forest ecosystems and I read a lot of that sort of stuff......, but I'll be sure to give it a look, cheers ):

I wonder how many of you have read "Hothouse Earth" by Gribben. I think maybe Bombadil has


Keith.

 

[leon-1]

leon-1, i agree that we must be having some effect on the rate of warming, but like karen said it cant be just down to us. i'm not saying that we should not try to cut co2 levels, but short of stopping the use of all fossil fuels across the world maybe were just wasting our time? but then they'll have run out within the century anyway so we'll have to use clean renewable sources.

cheers gb

I am not under the misconception that we are causing everything or that we could reverse or change what is happening on a large scale, I was just noticing the changes that we are seeing now and in the last so many years. I agree with pretty much all that has been said in the thread to degrees.

I don't pretend to know much about the subject, but would think that (1) volcanic eruption could increase CO2 levels in the atmosphere. A major eruption having a major effect on the concentration of CO2 and other gasses in our atmosphere. So, when several volcano's start rumbling and spewing noxious gasses into the atmosphere at the same time, such as is beginning to happen on the Pacific rim, there could be a significant increase in these so called greenhouse gasses, which would increase the temperatures of the Earth and hasten the melt off of the polar icecaps, which in turn can have significant influence on our weather. (Yes?-No?)

In theory if the events were large enough Yes it could speed things up.

When the inhabitants of China and Africa start consuming energy (as fossil fuel in the form of coal), to the extent that Europeans cosume energy, then the CO2 content of the atmosphere is going to take a such a leap, that the increase from 280ppm to 360ppm is going to look pretty insignificant.

China is currently going through an industrial revolution and is rapidly becoming one of the major burners of fossil fuels, so this will have an impact.
The chinese people require more power for industry and the fastest means of providing it is through burning fossil fuels, there is not a lot we can do about it unless one of us has a means of providing power that is both ecologically sound, efficient and economically viable.

Changes are happening, how much we have sped them up is another matter, as is what can be done about it, but I am still looking at direct change in our enviroment and how it is affecting the flora and fauna of this country. I am not trying to attribute blame as this is purposeless, there is no quick fix and as previously mentioned in this thread, mother nature has a way of dealing with things.

All changes in our enviroment effect us and I thought that it would be good to get some observations of things that were not regulary seen say ten years ago as opposed to today ):

 

[gb]

ok point taken. as for changes i'm probably too young to notice anything over the long term, but i remember seeing a group of foxegloves in flower at the end of october last year, which isnt usual i dont think.

cheers gb

 

[leon-1]

Cheers gb, age doesn't matter, you are just, if not more than likely to notice changes in the areas around you. :biggthump

Awareness of our enviroment is something that as a bushcrafter all of us should have and noticing change is as much a part of being a bushcrafter as skills are.

One of the essential skills IMO is tracking and without an awareness of the areas around us you will not really get very far as a tracker

 

[Keith_Beef]

Hehe.... :rolmao:
Not read that yet, just a student of Conservation and forest ecosystems and I read a lot of that sort of stuff......, but I'll be sure to give it a look, cheers ):

I heartily recommend it.

Hothouse Earth, the Greenhouse Effect and Gaia, by John Gribbin. I first read it in 1993 (pub. Black Swan, ISBN 0 552 99450 2) and I'm re-reading it (for the third time) at the moment.

The book explains:

• the benefits of the greenhouse effect, and compares Earth's greenhouse with the runaway greenhouse of Venus,
• the different greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O, CH4, CFC-11, CFC12 etc.), their origins, effects and interactions, volcanic and other dust, water vapour,
• the history of research into the greenhouse efffect, from the late 17th Century to recent times, including direct observations of gases (ground level sampling, balloon sampling, trapped bubbles), measurements of IR absorption from space, computer modelling of the climate,
• possible scenarios for the future.

At times reassuring, at times frightening, always interesting and written in a clear, understandable way even for the layman that I am.

I hope I'll be able to find a "Hothouse Earth revisited" to bring his observations up to date.

Keith.

 

[leon-1]

Keith did it mention lead in the atmosphere, how efficient it is in comparison to CO2 for instance, at destroying parts of our atmosphere :shock:.

 

[gb]

just found this
http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=10931

quite an interesting read.

 

[leon-1]

Cheers gb, I am still reading it with a level head, if this guy is right then where are the rest of the reports?????

Could be interesting to see if any could be found, bearing in mind the guy claims they have been published and if they have been published who's buried them????

 

[gb]

hi leon-1, ive heard this before, but not alot. i''l have a look for other reports at some point.
i think it is similar to the scenario in the book Gary was talking about, so maybe more than one person thinks the same.

cheers gb

 

[tenbears10]

just found this
http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=10931

quite an interesting read.

Good link gb and it is interesting but I'm sure with a bit of searching I could find you a well written post like that which explains how Elvis is alive and well living in small town america. I'm not being daft just trying to illustrate that this guys post is nothing without evidence. He doesn't even provide the full articles from which he quotes. He does a good job of explaining the process which we have already discussed that could result in the switching off of the Gulf Stream but it is merely an opinion as to when it will happen.

Bill

 

[gb]

lol he doesnt give alot of evidence i suppose,could have given some links or something.
I dont believe or dis-believe what he is saying, but he does mention the fact that the last time the gulf stream slowed was around 1300 which preceeded a mini ice age and a period of other cliamtic changes across the world.

you never know.................