Climate Change & Survival.

[Toddy]

Well, we have tried lobbying, that's failed.

We have tried COP (lots of them), that's failed.

We will pass 1.5°C next year due to our proximity to the sun Milankovich cycle & super El Nino.

You are spot on saying that it needs political /policy action. We have climate deniers running the country..

If you look at what Hansen says. Things are not optimistic.

Like I have already said there's little we can do but plan for civilisation collapse?


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I have no believe whatsoever that we have to plan for civilisation collapse. Time and time and time again, civilisation, society re-establishes itself.

I think frustrated preppers and the like are driving gloom and doom, almost itching for a disaster to happen, instead of looking for practical solutions to our over use of planetary resources.

The sensible preppers are too busy to be bothered with the gloom and doom scenarios.

 

[Wander]

In complete fairness, Toddy, I think you are over-doing the Panglossian approach to this, in the same way Man Friday is over-doing the doom and gloom scenario.
Both are starting to look just as risible.
The sensible approach is somewhere in between the two.

 

[Woody girl]

We can farm within a wide range of niches, with the potential for a very wide range of species. At present we choose to use only a few of them, and we choose to grow where we can use machinery.
The old caschrom (foot plough) worked enough small patches of land that the highlands were full of people and well fed people at that.
Now nothing grows there but grouse moors....
Repeat right across much of Europe.

Farming is no longer what it was, its big business since the ww2, about making money, rather than providing food in a sustainable way. Many farms are selling up at a crazy rate, as due to big business requirements rules etc they can't make smaller farms pay anymore. Disrupted
Weather patterns are playing havoc with crops, .farms are loosing money, and having to give up. A lot of British wheat is below standard this year due to the rain in the past few months instead of sun.
With less grain from Ukraine, this is going to be a problem in the near future, with bread prices going up yet again.
This will be blamed on inflation.

 

[Toddy]

In complete fairness, Toddy, I think you are over-doing the Panglossian approach to this, in the same way Man Friday is over-doing the doom and gloom scenario.
Both are starting to look just as risible.
The sensible approach is somewhere in between the two.

I vehemently disagree with screaming hyperbole. So all those, and mind the poster actually said he was a Doomer and was part of a Doomer group....it's almost akin to those daft lassies who egged each other on to believe that they could survive on sunlight alone.....who claim that the world and humanity are doomed really need to go and do something practical instead of living under a black cloud.

I do not deny climate change is exacerbated by human behaviour. But the other side of that is that if human behaviour can change things, then we will change again.

I don't believe that it's too far gone, I do not believe that society and humanity is about to implode, and I have little patience for those who pick only the bits that back up their focused vision of gloom. It's a big world, it's a huge topic, and humanity is incredibly adaptable.

Why isn't the thread full of information about the ways in which we are adapting. The Dutch farming research for instance.

New tech boosts Dutch drive for sustainable farming

In the Netherlands, experiments are underway to ensure future food supply and cut carbon emissions.

www.bbc.co.uk

They're not denying climate change any more than I am, but instead of giving up and giving in to gloom and doom, they're doing something about it. Something very practical about it too.


M

 

[Pattree]

Like I have already said there's little we can do but plan for civilisation collapse?

I’ve heard this statement from all sorts of groups, spiritual, militaristic, political and philosophical and it concerns me. I cannot help thinking that some who say it are hoping that it happens without thinking through the sequence by which it might happen. Young people who are saying this will be old and vulnerable by even the most pessimistic and wholly unmitigated calculations. It isn’t happening next year and it may not happen at all. Change isn’t collapse.

Neither are they looking at societies where civilisation HAS broken down. It isn’t the workers or peasants who survive!

I do think that in a world in which most of us make only the smallest of contributions to decisions that affect us deeply, it is inevitable that we feel frustrated and helpless. That is very understandable. Perhaps “the end of civilisation” is seen as some sort of banner threatening an anarchic revenge.

 

[ManFriday4]

but instead of giving up and giving in to gloom and doom, they're doing something about it. Something very practical about it too.

Who said I had given up?

Please quote to me where i say its too late, & I have given up.

We talk collapse. There is a large community of scientists, ecologists, activists & a few preppers who are talking about collapse of civilisation because if we don't there will be no justice in how it happens.

I have for at least a decade been watching what British preppers have been putting out and its primarily conspiracy theories about 5g, WEF, Davos, the UN, pandemic conspiracies, mask wearing, "climate lockdowns", LTNs, ULEZ & Migrants. Mostly denying heatwaves & drought but they are talking about the cost of living crisis. PreppersUK on Twitter (X) has nothing to say about severe heat.

Climate change obviously can be as important as some of us think it is.

 

[Pattree]

Who said I had given up?

You did.

Well, we have tried lobbying, that's failed.

We have tried COP (lots of them), that's failed.

How quickly did you expect to have an effect where you hold a minority view? I believe that we have to work hard and long to change world opinion.

 

[Toddy]

Who said I had given up?

Please quote to me where i say its too late, & I have given up.

We talk collapse. There is a large community of scientists, ecologists, activists & a few preppers who are talking about collapse of civilisation because if we don't there will be no justice in how it happens.

I have for at least a decade been watching what British preppers have been putting out and its primarily conspiracy theories about 5g, WEF, Davos, the UN, pandemic conspiracies, mask wearing, "climate lockdowns", LTNs, ULEZ & Migrants. Mostly denying heatwaves & drought but they are talking about the cost of living crisis. PreppersUK on Twitter (X) has nothing to say about severe heat.

Climate change obviously can be as important as some of us think it is.

You do know that social media is a very biased court ? that it is like self fulfilling prophecies and driven by 'likes' and requote /requote/requote, pick and choose bon mots ?

Your giving up is the Doom you seem to want to invite.

Doomer - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I prefer the quote about hard times not lasting while hard people do.....though here we'd say hardy people do.

I am sitting here with a cuppa....tea grown in Scotland and I know that I have so much work to do this afternoon to deal with the glut of fruits from my small garden.
The sugar I'm going to use is from British Sugar. They freely admit they had issues with the crop last year because of drought, so they found ways to mitigate that, and knowing there are ways to mitigate that they'll be more proactive in the future. It's all very do-able, it is not all gloom and 'doom'.

News post

www.britishsugar.co.uk

More and more we're learning, we're changing and we are making provision for the future.
Tea isn't native here, but with care, I can grow it, and it will thrive.
I think that's true of a lot of things, and people.

M

 

[HillBill]

1stly currently there is approximately 420ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, but today's global temperature of 1.2° C above 1850 doe not represent those emissions the climate is in catch up. I posted Dr. James E Hansens peer reviewed paper on Glaobal Warming in the Pipeline for Earth earlier, but here is the link.

We are in a relative Co2 famine. 420ppm is only 0.04% of our atmosphere. Plants thrive at 800 to 1200pm, almost doubling yields than current levels. Commercial greenhouses pump Co2 into them for this reason. As a result of increased Co2 and warmth, crop yields are rising and world famine deaths are falling. If C02 levels fall to 150ppm, crops can no longer support agriculture, at 100ppm plant life begins to die.

Fx9tL9fXgAEIXyi by Mark Hill, on Flickr



Using 1850 as a start point for global warming is also a misleading start point as we were only just coming out of the little ice age at that point. It was supposed to get warmer. It will get warmer still. I see the Milankovitch cycle get mentioned, but not the Bray and Eddy solar cycles which are the current climate drivers.

F1wwJ7DX0AEg7oi by Mark Hill, on Flickr

 

[ManFriday4]

There's a difference between changing direction and giving up.

I have been an activist since the 1980s. We actually won the Battle For The Tees in the late 1990s. By sheer numbers and making road building uneconomical. The Tories secretly shelved the road building program because protests were doubling the price of roads.

The Battle For The Trees wast about trees, it was about emissions. Very few people outside scientists & academics had heard of James E Hansen then. I knew about him because I had recently finished a dissertation on climatic variation impacts on rice & other grains.

We actually can't outdo climate change on economic disruption. (Just for the record I think JSO obstructing orking class people dies not help the cause). Environmental activists have a long history of supporting labour groups. We helped the Liverpool Docker in the late 1990s with their protests, we helped the Vestas workers on the Isle of White.

COP conferences are dominated by fossil fuel lobbyists.

Did you know that ExxonMobil scientists knew about Climate change in the 1970s?


“I think this new study is the smoking gun, the proof, because it shows the degree of understanding … this really deep, really sophisticated, really skillful understanding that was obscured by what came next,” Oreskes said. “It proves a point I’ve argued for years that ExxonMobil scientists knew about this problem to a shockingly fine degree as far back as the 1980s, but company spokesmen denied, challenged, and obscured this science, starting in the late 1980s/early 1990s.”

Exxon scientists predicted global warming with ‘shocking skill and accuracy,’ Harvard researchers say

In the study, scientists showed how the multinational energy giant worked to cloud the issue.

news.harvard.edu

Possibly the Best conspiracy theory which is actually true is that the industry, not country which has done the most damage, has also spent al lot of its profits and subsidies on misinformation.

There are Gigatones od CO2 in the atmosphere. There is no technology or nature which can remove them without breaking the laws of physics.

When I say there is nothing we can do about our predicament, and as @Toddy says, "we have Milankovich cycles, but we are warming".

There is also another problem to our predicament: "Aerosol Masking" this is to do with particulates in the atmosphere and their ability to cool the earth. Remember how there were news stories about how it was possible to see the Himalayas from Delhi during the Covid 19 lockdown? This was historically accurate, the introduction of the internal combustion engine to cities already over crowded creates smog.

We actually know that loss of aerosol masking raises global temperatures, because it happened during the pandemic lock downs.

COVID-19 lockdowns temporarily raised global temperatures, research shows: Reductions in aerosol emissions had slight warming impact, study finds

The lockdowns and reduced societal activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic affected emissions of pollutants in ways that slightly warmed the planet for several months last year, according to new research. The counterintuitive finding highlights the influence of airborne particles, or aerosols...

www.sciencedaily.com

It's a rock and a hard place.

Human survival, as the entire biosphere has to go through rapid abrupt climate change, is dependent on skill, luck (chance), working together & nature restoration on a massive scale & no guarantee of rescue or survival.

Is that giving up?





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[Wander]

Man Friday, what is it you are trying to achieve with these posts?
That's a genuine question.
What is it you are wanting from readers of this thread/forum?

 

[Kepis]

Did you know that ExxonMobil scientists knew about Climate change in the 1970s?


“.... “It proves a point I’ve argued for years that ExxonMobil scientists knew about this problem to a shockingly fine degree as far back as the 1980s, .....

So was it the 1970's or the 1980's you seem unsure?

 

[ManFriday4]

Man Friday, what is it you are trying to achieve with these posts?
That's a genuine question.
What is it you are wanting from readers of this thread/forum?

Everyone has a right to know about the predicament they & the planet are in..

The media are not telling the truth about the climate change we are currently experiencing.

If humans are going to survive, our governments are not going to help us & it seems from Youtube that very few survival influences are too.

Social media is a tough court? Yeah look at Qanon, social media is where anti science discussions happen in bubbles of consensus.

Peer reviewed science is generally Conservative because nobody wants to be Dr Doom.. but a few scientists, mostly retired are telling it how it is and the hazard data is backing them up, as it happens.

Of course people dispute science & have their own theories, publish a paper for peer review?

Like I say if we want to survive it's a bit of a casino. Now you know what we are facing, take it or leave it.

 

[ManFriday4]

So was it the 1970's or the 1980's you seem unsure?

And that's really important?

 

[Kepis]

And that's really important?

It is if you expect people to take you seriously, contradicting yourself in the same post doesn't really help you or your cause.

 

[ManFriday4]

It is is you expect people to take you seriously, contradicting yourself in the same post doesn't really hep you or your cause.

You have the information, that's all that matters, you can't say no one told you. Good luck.

 

[Wander]

Man Friday - OK, so your motivation is to inform so people can take appropriate action.
Yup, fair enough.
Have you done that yet?
How's it going for you? Has it gone how you thought it would?
Because, whilst I am not entirely on your side, neither am I entirely against it. I think I lie somewhere between yourself and Toddy. Roughly in the middle.
But I tell you what I have noticed, how you have started to alienate people.
That, surely, can't be what you want. I'm (kind of, again - no where near as extreme as you) on your side, and even I am thinking, 'you're losing me'. A forum like this (Bushcraft) is pretty much on your side (yeah, there's one or two who aren't, but essentially you're preaching to the choir), but you seem to be alienating them.
Are you aware of that effect you are having and, if so, how does that influence you actions?

 

[Kepis]

You have the information, that's all that matters, you can't say no one told you. Good luck.

 

[ManFriday4]

Man Friday - OK, so your motivation is to inform so people can take appropriate action.
Yup, fair enough.
Have you done that yet?
How's it going for you? Has it gone how you thought it would?
Because, whilst I am not entirely on your side, neither am I entirely against it. I think I lie somewhere between yourself and Toddy. Roughly in the middle.
But I tell you what I have noticed, how you have started to alienate people.
That, surely, can't be what you want. I'm (kind of, again - no where near as extreme as you) on your side, and even I am thinking, 'you're losing me'. A forum like this (Bushcraft) is pretty much on your side (yeah, there's one or two who aren't, but essentially you're preaching to the choir), but you seem to be alienating them.
Are you aware of that effect you are having and, if so, how does that influence you actions?

I'm not really interested in sides. I'm interested in how social media bushcraft influences are either in complete climate denial, & in many ways quite misleading.

Last year was cooler than this year, & the heatwave of 1976 was cooler still.

It's possible that we have a narrow margin of survival, but that's only possible with massive rewilding & cooperation.

It's interesting that we are bushcrafers and possibly even trackkers. Anyone noticed the lack of insects, missing from windscreens? Because it is remarkable. Its related to the industrial civilisation.

People who deny science and want to dispute climate change will likely to feel alienated by my opinions, climate science & the changes taking place in Earth's climate right now, I can't possibly speculate why.

I get why people think that civilisation collapse might not be terminal, and that is correct, the last 12000 years plus indicates humans have had civilisations which have flourished and declined over and over again.

One of the reasons the term "6th mass extinction" is what is happening now & people are disputing me getting a date wrong. Or being triggered by a precocious teenager in a red anorak.

I have put data here that is relevant to our current predicament, it's not my opinion, it's peer reviewed science. Most of bushcraft is science based.

You have the data, the OP asked a question. He wea boo'd off, and possibly felt a little shocked.

 

[Wander]

OK then.
Sure.
So you are going to continue to spam this thread. I get it.

You have the data...

Yup, thanks for the data.
You've done your bit.
Bye.