It's a very interesting debate Abbe. Talking to Niall Ferguson, he has pointed out that every empire from the Egyptians to the Ottomans has collapsed, mostly rather spectacularly. However, the British Empire never collapsed. On the contrary, Britain has remained a great world power. The question is, is this a modern phenomenon? Can we assume that recent empires will be safeguarded against collapse by their structure? Or is it a freak case, helped by the position in the two world wars and the growth of the USA, that Britain has escaped the fate of other empires, and we can thus assume it will not happen again?
The economy of the US is in a truly awful state. At one point, the defence budget alone was greater than their net export revenue. The national debt is 7 trillion dollars and is growing at 1.6billion
every day. The industry due to the capitalist economy is all about progression and effectivly hedonism (such very low fuel costs, very poor fuel economy and a rapidly growing internal flight business, this last being shared by the UK). Sooner rather than later aircraft will have to be powered by hydrogen or electric motors. This, obviously enough, will have a
huge impact on the daily life of a US citizen - even disregarding human transport, world sources of goods will disappear, along with military capabilities and foods (perishables don't take kindly to month long boat trips).
People say China is the next big thing. It could be - but it depends how quickly a global change in resources takes effect. The Chinese industry is of course growing very fast - but if it tops out too soon they will be going nowhere fast. In addition to this, there are other developing nations such as India and Brazil who want a slice of the action - it seems to be a trend to emulate the Western nations, such as the UK, US, France, Germany, etc. - but the world simply cannot support these nations.
The loss of a US presence would impact the world politically to a great extent.
The US dominate the G8, the UN Security council, the UN, the World Trade Organisation, you name it, to the point of totalitarianism. Whether this is good or bad is up to you, but their removal would cause untold upheavals. Not to mention the semi-UN 'peacekeeping' - no more troops in S. Korea, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc etc. Not that these are entirely US troops (with the exception of Korea) - but they are there for operations started in majority by that same country.
Take the G8 for example. This was set up by the US in the early 70s, (rumoured to be a post-Vietnam backlash and indication of taking the oil crisis seriously, although none of that can be proved), started as the G6. It became 7 when Canada joined soon after (I think 1976). Russia was not a member until after the Cold War, in 1991 - that is, at the demise of the Soviet Union, and has recently been prevented from meeting by the USA. It is well known to be the 8 richest countries in the world - this is true, given total GDP. But take into account debt (which should be a top priority to pay off - there's no excuse if you're the richest country in the world
), and GDP per capita, and it all changes. You must use GDP per capita because it's that that gives you an idea of the actual income - there is no use having a lot of money if it is stretched between many people - Russia is the 10th richest country in the world but not per capita - and you go to Russia you will understand. Many experts consider Russia to be an LEDC now. Per capita, the richest countries are:
1. Luxembourg $54053.46 per person
2. Norway $37533.66 per person
3. Bermuda $35882.03 per person
4. San Marino $32978.98 per person
5. Hong Kong $31071.64 per person
6. Denmark $30886.36 per person
7. Austria $30006.98 per person
8. Iceland $29520.42 per person
9. Canada $29491.31 per person
10. Cayman Islands $29464.30 per person
These countries, unlikely though they seem, are those that can and will last. They are also those that can make a difference to the world, as it's they who have money and to spare. For example, Norway is the world's largest aid donor per capita in the world. They also have an enormous fund to safeguard their income when oil runs out (oil represents the majority part of their exports).
However the thing to watch is interdependency. Everyone relies on each other, no matter how much you disbelieve it. Countries that make a lot of money through banking and consumer electronics (Hong Kong, anyone?) will suffer a huge amount if the US empire collapses - after all, there are more PCs in the US than in the next 7 greatest countries combined.
I really could go on all day. And I'd quite like to
But I sense that very few people will even read this far, so I'd better stop and let others have their own say
Chris
