Crisis or no crisis?

[Paul_B]

So there's been a lot of threads that range from prepping to almost panic mode, well let's not go that far but they do seem pessimistic.

So a simple question, is there a big looming crisis worse than experienced in a generation? Or are people conflating a few issues into one big crisis that needs a lot of planning for?

My view is there's an inflation issue and we've had a drought that the UK isn't set up to cope with. Add in housing stock designed to keep us warm not cool. On their own they're not that serious. Together they're still not serous for many but very serious for those without reserves behind them. Reserves of money, resources or skills/ knowledge. If you've little resources and money then inflation alone is a crisis you can't prepare for. Drought isn't something you could prepare for neither. Not if you're living hand to mouth.

That leaves those with money, reserves, etc to prep as much as they want to. However it sounds to me like some are having fun with this.

Whatever the case I reckon there's a sociology research project in the study of UK based prepping. As to the level of crisis I think it's high for lower income and less for average and above average incomes..

What's your take on it?

 

[gra_farmer]

I have been, a farmer in my youth and have watched the changing trends in the export and imports over the years in relation to farming and skill sets.

Our tradable commodity is education in this country, or was.....I think this is not quite the fact anymore.

I am an originator of a few of the threads you mentioned, and I have both been on the ground struggling and an influencer for policy in both the UK and Europe.

Now I help to keep water sources clean and plentiful, but times are changing, with mainly a number of actions started decades ago, finally heading towards their final goal. I saw right through the Brexit misinformation to what it is now, and I am concerned.

So being prepared and not needing to action anything, is the best course to go. For example, stocking up on food, we as a family did this in light of Brexit, and it was valued when COVID hit, our COVID stock has been topped up for whatever happens next.....?

 

[TeeDee]

On a global scale longer term the main upheaval will be the ongoing change in world order importance from the West given up financial and trade strength to the East as the Belt and Road initiative increases and many countries start to seek an alternative to the over bloated use of the Dollar being the reserve currency keeping an over indulgent lifestyle afloat.

Search YT for

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio​

Inflation from the Covid bail outs and payments , also the tail end of the GFC.

Proxy wars created for < insert reason > creating destabilization in various supply and logistic chains. More countries now experiencing small scale wars & conflicts as opposed to the fairly mundane status quo of the Cold War.

More concern and pressure to address deal with Climate change through differing methods - some with greater joined up thinking than others.

More locally - throw in not just the Pension bomb but also the Rental bomb and all the issues thrown in on the housing market.

Lack of Energy sovereignty and a looming energy crunch for everyone. All whilst a Green agenda is being heavily pushed/supported.

 

[Robbi]

On a global scale longer term the main upheaval will be the ongoing change in world order importance from the West given up financial and trade strength to the East as the Belt and Road initiative increases and many countries start to seek an alternative to the over bloated use of the Dollar being the reserve currency keeping an over indulgent lifestyle afloat.

Search YT for

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio​

Inflation from the Covid bail outs and payments , also the tail end of the GFC.

Proxy wars created for < insert reason > creating destabilization in various supply and logistic chains. More countries now experiencing small scale wars & conflicts as opposed to the fairly mundane status quo of the Cold War.

More concern and pressure to address deal with Climate change through differing methods - some with greater joined up thinking than others.

More locally - throw in not just the Pension bomb but also the Rental bomb and all the issues thrown in on the housing market.

Lack of Energy sovereignty and a looming energy crunch for everyone. All whilst a Green agenda is being heavily pushed/supported.

I think you missed food security

 

[TeeDee]

I think you missed food security

Maybe - maybe not - We managed to grow a lot more in the past then we do now. I think a big thing is we don't eat in the most sensible way anymore , we don't eat seasonally , we expect every type of food globally available all year around to be in our Supermarkets and damn the cost to the planet.

 

[Robbi]

Globally... That's the issue... Lack of imports of basic foodstuffs will be a major problem

 

[C_Claycomb]

I have seen multiple sources expressing concern about fertilizer availability. Some came from Russia, some uses natural gas.

 

[campfreddie]

I have considered 'prepping' and 'preppers' to be those who prep for a catastrophic event (war, massive earthquake, asteroid impact, zombie apocalypse, etc). But now it's seems to get used by people simply stocking up for shortages of cooking oil and toilet rolls. Like alot of things the press seems to be doing this - staycation now means something different post-covid.

Not convinced there'll be a catasrophic event caused by inflation, brexit, ukraine or even climate change in the forseeable, but there may be a long slow slide in the state of society in the UK, US and elsewhere.

As always the poor will suffer most while the more well off will simply be more uncomfortable over the coming years. But nothing worse than how we were in the 1970s say. But social media has done a good job of making most people fearful for the future.

 

[TLM]

If a large transformer is blown up by a freak lightning that could cause quite a crisis for a fairly large area. Depending on a lot of things maybe for weeks. On the more remote areas one does not have to be a paranoiac to get some preparations done.

 

[TeeDee]

As always the poor will suffer most while the more well off will simply be more uncomfortable over the coming years. But nothing worse than how we were in the 1970s say. But social media has done a good job of making most people fearful for the future.

This.
We will all shuffle down the social ladder somewhat.

 

[gra_farmer]

Maybe - maybe not - We managed to grow a lot more in the past then we do now. I think a big thing is we don't eat in the most sensible way anymore , we don't eat seasonally , we expect every type of food globally available all year around to be in our Supermarkets and damn the cost to the planet.

That's correct, the main concern is the average age for a farmer now is mid 50s. Being a former farmer myself, I know how hard it can be, and really you need to be brought up in the sector to stay in it.

Hobby farming is brilliant, as bringing in new people to the sector, but having worked with a number of them, their goals are unrealistic and often give up after a few years.

I have worked in the land based sector (one way or another) for 32 years, and been in farming from birth, as farming in the our family has been ongoing for the last 250 years.

 

[Scottieoutdoors]

One thing I've noticed is peoples inability to adapt their mindset...

How many times have we heard the old folks talking about back in their day xyz, you could do this/that/the other etc... Well times changed and their likes had to change..

Honestly I'm so bored of Brexit as a topic (I understand it being brought up here), but either people talking about how it was prior and how it is now or peoe pretending that everything is going to be perfect bow without any work...

Yeh, a trip abroad we had in April was a bit more of a pain in the bum, our city has a lot less taxi drivers (covid also put paid to that), hospitality industry has been hit hard with staff and various other negatives happened (that impact me), but if people just move on from it then in time it'll just be a historical event and nothing more abd we can work as a country to make the best of the new direction.. I mean surely the argument that it was looking back that brought the whole about us a fair one? So why continue to do so?


We will adapt to a new way and that'll be that..

I personally think that stocking up isn't going to help you a great deal other than overcoming things like a toilet paper shortage... Those who are focusing on water storage and energy etc might find a bit of extra during especially harder snippets of a month..

Either way, it's all assumptions based on what we've read from either side of the argument..

@gra_farmer
Average age mid 50's, is that up or down?

Contrary to the above which probably smacks of "times change, deal with it" I do think farming is one industry in the UK that gets it tough! In other parts of the world I've seem small farms struggle whilst corporations buy up everyone and destroy the land by over farming.. all to the point where a small farm which would have been thriving financially is now no longer sustainable because of the pricing and costs.

 

[Toddy]

The 'back in their day' is often a pragmatic regret....like the baby and the bathwater.

The adage about history repeating itself because no one listens, has more than an element of truth about it.

Thing is though, we can only live in the now. That the now has to have a weather eye on the future is just sensible.

Change for changes sake is often engineered to suit someone else's bankbook, much of the hype is bloated.
Look for the agenda behind the propaganda we were taught in school. Do they do that now ? or does some App tell folks how to think ?

Me ? I'm an optimist, and history does teach that social order is the norm. War, plague, uprisings, natural disasters, society resolves itself.
Individuals though, they often suffer horrendously.

I think the aim is to not be part of the problem......

 

[Buckshot]

Bear in mind too we are in uncharted territory for many.
Lots of people have never experienced interest rates above a few %.
Lots have never lived through a recession.
still more, although alive, weren't old enough to appreciate what was happening.
It's only oldies, like me, who remember those things and interest rates in the late teens!
People having to work 2 or 3 jobs just to pay the bills!
it was scary in those days, it will be scary again but, we will get through it.

 

[Woody girl]

Also, back in the 70's, a lot more people remembered living through the privations of the war, so we're able to adapt to things much more easily, when things were tricky.
Nowadays, we are used to a pretty cushy life, in comparison to even the most comfortably off 40 or 50 years ago. Times have changed so much, to the point where, no being able to have a hot shower every day is shocking to them. I do know people like this.
But we do have it so much better, at least most do. Double glazing, and home insulation , for one thing, which us older sorts can remember not having.
Energy rationing will have to happen. Possibly a three or four day week for industry.
Food will be in shorter supply, poorer quality, and more expensive, as the drought summer has damaged crops.
It's a perfect storm with certain people in charge of the country , fiddling while Rome burns.
Strap in, and hang on for a rough ride.
If you havnt been making any sort of preparations then I think you will have a real problem.
I don't mean full on zombie apocalypse type thing, though, it might be it comes to that.
Beef up home security.
Make sure you have alternatives for cooking, and heating, and a decent stack of tins and basics to eat.
Warm clothing, bedding, and hot water bottles, and you'll be OK.
That in my opinion is the minimal preparation . If one can do more, then great.
So many of us are now so reliant on central heating and electric for everything, it will be tough for many, including round my way, all the oap bungalows, and a lot of the housing association houses , being all electric. I worry for them.

 

[Paul_B]

Bear in mind too we are in uncharted territory for many.
Lots of people have never experienced interest rates above a few %.
Lots have never lived through a recession.
still more, although alive, weren't old enough to appreciate what was happening.
It's only oldies, like me, who remember those things and interest rates in the late teens!
People having to work 2 or 3 jobs just to pay the bills!
it was scary in those days, it will be scary again but, we will get through it.

Recessions in the UK- 2020, 2008/2009, 1990/1991 and the 1980 one. People have lived through recessions just probably got on with it. Probably without panic buying except in the last one.

 

[TLM]

On last count I am about 68 years old, I can well remember how we lived at the cottage at about early 1900 style. No problem, I can do that again, not that I am overly fond of it but can do. I have water and wood for burning, so food remains about the only problem. If society breaks down to the level where food transport ceases, we have a lot of other problems too. I can hunt and fish here but producing carbohydrates requires advance planning that normally would not be possible in a crisis. Off we go to ketosis ... that must have been fairly common a few thousand years ago so must reactivate those genes.

Anyway, even a thought exercise helps if/when ****.

 

[Scottieoutdoors]

Take each day as it comes...
I do believe in that and also looking at the future but the future can change and always does I notice, even in the smallest ways.

Yesterday I had my day planned out, had done most if not all of what I needed to do immediacy and the plan was to drive a start on jobs I had for later in the week... Great plan yeh? Reduce the weight of the week's work by getting ahead...
Checked my banking app and couldn't see one of the accounts... shock horror... wife checked hers, same thing... phoned the bank and hey presto we'd missed some letter about our bank profile and so they'd effectively blocked the account...nothing in nothing out.. so then had to spend a couple hours sorting that **** out, after which was told it'll probably take 48 working hours to get back up and sorted... naturally they can block everything with the snap of the fingers, to unblock will take possibly until Monday afternoon...!! In the mean time I have to pay various bills with other money, then I'll have to move stuff around to account for that etc etc.. so went from a lower work load to an even bigger one...

But hey...life goes on...not much one can do about it other than waste a good few hours b******g and moaning to some poor sod down the end of the phone whi can't do anything about anything anyway.. ..

I think the big scare amongst folk and the media is that life in its most decadent average Joe form, won't be able to continue... I dare say the rest of us will find an inconvenient blip in aspects of our lives perhaps more so in the financial part of our lives, but I'm optimistic we'll all soldier on.

I think I've said it before, the people that will struggle the most are likely those that live the more materialistic lives..or those that truly throw a wobbly when something doesn't go right...

 

[Danceswithhelicopters]

The previous poster poses an interesting phenomenon we now live with.

What "money" do we actually possess. Its now nearly all electronic and when something comes along to disturb the system you have what exactly?

You could tell the window cleaner you have 100K in the bank but he doesn't care... He just wants his £12 in cash at the door.

If your banking, or the means to connect to it, breaks down then what next when the bills come in?

A passing involvement with what is called a Black Start (look it up... Very real and after the Flu was number 2 on the Emergencies Planning panic world) revealed that if banking crashed at Tesco through communications or central failure they would just close the doors until it was sorted.

It was an eye opener to what would happen to society in 24/48 hours if access to a major supermarket was denied to the public purely due to electronic systems shutting.

Imaging Covid 19 shopping stupidity to a factor of 10.

 

[Paul_B]

All nuclear power stations have often gas powered or diesel powered electricity generation for backup reasons if the reactor had to be shutdown. Often these have a sizeable capability in their own right. Gas is preferable because it's got a fast start power generation. They use a fair bit of power even when not producing themselves. People really don't have a clue about what goes on behind the scenes of modern life.