Climate Change & Survival.

[Toddy]

I am not sceptical about Climate Change, I am sceptical about us being unable to deal with change.

Humanity is incredibly adaptable.
It would be really good if we could adapt our habits and behaviour quickly enough to mitigate the climate change we have caused, but I cannot see that happening.

I said,
"But changing realities takes time unless you actually want to live in a disaster.

Most folks will quietly get on board with managing to be more aware of multiple issues, habits, resources, etc., but to claim that life will implode and society will fall when all evidences show that regardless of the upheaval, be it disease, natural disaster, war, drought, etc., that society re-establishes itself. Trade re-establishes, law and order re-establish, and life goes on."

That's not scepticism, that's history.

 

[Lean'n'mean]

all evidences show that regardless of the upheaval, be it disease, natural disaster, war, drought, etc., that society re-establishes itself. Trade re-establishes, law and order re-establish, and life goes on."

Weather permitting.

 

[ManFriday4]

We are already living in a disaster. In the UK, it might seem difficult to see that mainly because all we are dealing with is heat & heavy rain. But in the US, Canada & and Australia, they are living with bushfires, heat domes, droughts & repeted supercharged over moistured hurricanes/ tropical storms off the Pacific, Atlantic & Carribean.



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[ManFriday4]

Weather permitting.

Rising sea levels could lead to the shutdown of most seaports & coastal cities, which would collapse global trade.

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[Lean'n'mean]

When we first moved here back in '93, the farmers used to sow their cereal & rape seed in what was then, the mild & mellow month of september. But since around 2003, september has steadily become an extension of august & now they sow in november to be sure there is sufficient humidity to germinate the seeds & keep the seedlings alive. That is adaption of sorts. For the time being, there is just sufficient rainful to see the crops to maturity, even though each successive year, the stems grow a little shorter. There will come a time though, prehaps even in my lifetime, when the whole region here in Western France will have to abandon arable farming. At the moment, most of France is still in a state of drought.
More pain on the way next week.

 

[stonepark]

If there was ever a type of thread where group think led to mass suicide, this has to be it.

All driven by idiocy where people believe those who base their data on a combination of the increasing urban heat island events surrounding nearly all official thermometers and computer models which cannot predict the past, the present so why would they be able to predict the future, yet they are touted as all knowing, yet are so simplified they only contain Total Solar irradience, ignoring all the other energy inputs to the planet.

CO2 is not a pollutant or controller of the planets temperature, the SUN controls the temperature, always has done, always will do.

We are walking into - blindfolded by bad (I hesitate to use the word) science - the next cycle of the planets cooling as this interglacial comes to an end.

Enjoy what we have got whilst you can as at the end of every interglacial, planetary temperatures drop an average 10C no matter the CO2 level.

 

[Wander]

...the SUN controls the temperature, always has done, always will do.

Seriously?
Whilst I am in full agreement that some posters on this thread should be taking Sertraline twice a day, you are displaying a pretty woeful knowledge of how the climate works.
So bad, in fact, I'm left dumbfounded and really can't think of anything to say to you in response.

 

[ManFriday4]

When we first moved here back in '93, the farmers used to sow their cereal & rape seed in what was then, the mild & mellow month of september. But since around 2003, september has steadily become an extension of august & now they sow in november to be sure there is sufficient humidity to germinate the seeds & keep the seedlings alive. That is adaption of sorts. For the time being, there is just sufficient rainful to see the crops to maturity, even though each successive year, the stems grow a little shorter. There will come a time though, prehaps even in my lifetime, when the whole region here in Western France will have to abandon arable farming. At the moment, most of France is still in a state of drought.
More pain on the way next week.

For people on the frontline of climate change, in the region within Km of the 45th parallel, this is terrifying. You have seen your rivers dry up and temperatures above 40°C. It must be really hard to hear other people just bluntly deny that anything is happening, have their own ideas about the role of greenhouse gasses, and how the climate works when it isn't broken.

I no longer dispute or even bother engaging with people who refuse to even understand science or are selective about science. After all, if science is a myth, just eat Hemlock it won't kill you.

We use science all the time in bushcraft. Water purification is science, fire is science & cooking is science.

As someone who assesses risk from climate change. My advice is to move north if you can and find people who are looking at climate change survival.

ClimateSafe Villages

I'm now a proud member of #ClimateSafeVillages! Here's to a future of living in harmony with our planet, learning from each other, and building a sustainable community. #EcoCommunity #SustainableFuture

www.climatesafevillages.org

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[ManFriday4]

Seriously?
Whilst I am in full agreement that some posters on this thread should be taking Sertraline twice a day, you are displaying a pretty woeful knowledge of how the climate works.
So bad, in fact, I'm left dumbfounded and really can't think of anything to say to you in response.

I saw that comment too.

I have no response. Its not possible to debate with science denial



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[ManFriday4]

The Panama Canal, a vital passageway that moves 6 % of the world's maritime commerce, will extend transit restrictions due to drought-induced low water levels. Canal authorities first announced restrictions this year, creating a backlog of vessels waiting to cross.25 Aug 2023

Panama Canal announces prolonged transit restrictions due to drought

Low water levels have created a backlog of cargo vessels in one of the world’s key maritime shipping passageways.

www.aljazeera.com

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[Toddy]

Weather permitting.

Even then.
King William's 'lean years', for instance.
Adaptability is one of humanities greatest advantages.

 

[Toddy]

I saw that comment too.

I have no response. Its not possible to debate with science denial



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This is not science denial. I can, using science, clearly show the climate changes of the past, and the concomitant changes in the biomass of the planet. I can even show you how much oxygen was available. How the changes in sea temperature related to the changes in the varves.

I'm an archaeologist.....the evidences of past climatic change are literally encased in stone.....yet still we are here, and still our world 'lives'.
Add in a healthy dose of social history and again, still humanity and it's societies survive.

Humanity is just another creature that altered it's environment to suit itself....now it's not suiting us so well, so we'll slowly change it again.

I'm not de-crying climate change, or our role in it. I do decry hysteria and the arrogance of those who go out of their way to make life harder for others just so that they can scream their message though.

We know. We know there's a problem.

If they come up with solutions that folks can actually attain and they might listen to them.

 

[ManFriday4]

This is not science denial. I can, using science, clearly show the climate changes of the past, and the concomitant changes in the biomass of the planet. I can even show you how much oxygen was available. How the changes in sea temperature related to the changes in the varves.

I'm an archaeologist.....the evidences of past climatic change are literally encased in stone.....yet still we are here, and still our world 'lives'.
Add in a healthy dose of social history and again, still humanity and it's societies survive.

Humanity is just another creature that altered it's environment to suit itself....now it's not suiting us so well, so we'll slowly change it again.

I'm not de-crying climate change, or our role in it. I do decry hysteria and the arrogance of those who go out of their way to make life harder for others just so that they can scream their message though.

We know. We know there's a problem.

If they come up with solutions that folks can actually attain and they might listen to them.

I beg to differ.

When someone tells me CO2 has nothing to do with climate, its a fundamental misunderstanding of what makes this planet habitable. If it wasn't for the greenhouse effect- CO2 in the atmosphere (pre industrial levels of around 180 parts per million (ppm) ) this planet would be an uninhabitable rock covered in ice.

With all due respect to your profession as an archaeologist, archeology only really covers up to a couple of 100,000 years of Hominid history. Prior to that we have geology and ice cores.

Paleo climate data comes from ice cores where CO2 & CH4 is trapped in ice taken from Antarctica & Greenland. (Some data also comes from coal, crude oil,deep sea sediment cores and geology cores). We know that the climate has changed before. We know that the earth has been ice-free before, but more than a million years ago and very likely before the 1st hominids made tools.

The notion that the only thing to govern earth's climate is proximity to the sun is deeply flawed because if there was no CO2 in the atmosphere, there would be no atmospheric green house to create the niche climate which has allowed humans to flourish and industrial civilisation.

As for solutions? The process of burning oil and coal has released gigatons of CO2. The bacterio-geological processes to make coal and oil took.several billion years of laying down the dead plants and animals and compressing them to form these deposits. There is no technological solution to recapture the CO2 released and believing we can would be attempting to break the laws of physics.

It's grim I know. I completely get why people switch off from the doom. I do too, it's called burying your head in the sand. I have children and their future is grim, but they completely get it, we talk about it alot and they thank me for the honesty. I encourage them to live well and be good people.


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[Lean'n'mean]

Even then.
King William's 'lean years', for instance.
Adaptability is one of humanities greatest advantages.

Your vision of the world appears to be very local. There are considerable differences between the past & the possible future. The scale of the human population & the lack of natural enviroments to act as a buffer when crops fail to name just 2. Sure, humanity can deal with temporary setbacks but our whole civilsation is based on one thing, reliable food production. It isn't hard to imagine the consequences of a generalised crop failure, say across the northern hemisphere. We 'survived' the pandemic because food production continued but had there been a bad cereal harvest in 2019, the world would be a very different place to what it is today. Future problems linked to the weather are likely to be more permanent than in the past, more widespread & more devastating because people can't eat concrete.

 

[Toddy]

@ManFriday4, I think you're cherry picking, and stirring.

Archaeology is concerned with humanity, and humanity has successfully weathered everything from ice age to much warmer background temperatures than we have now.
When the Romans came here the average UK temperature was at least 2˚C warmer than is now. What is now sub marginal land was then actively used arable land. The evidences are all around us.

There are three major cycles that affect the Earth and it's climate.
We know this, that's science.
We know that there are changes caused by humanity since the cusp of industrialisation that led not only to an enormous pollution, but to an enormous population growth.....a population that wants all the advances of the western ...or far eastern too these days......world.

Changing that is not 'climate change action', it's social action, it's political action, and unless the ranting actually comes up with practical application that people can live with, it's not going to change quickly.

The irony....the double standards....a friend posted a photo on another forum of a recent race meeting.



The irony is that all those cyclists (and mind all those bikes are industrial productions) still didn't save as much fuel as the racers burned.....for sport.
Yeah, that really encourages the average housewife to cycle to the supermarket, doesn't it ?

Thing is though, little by little we can move mountains, make islands, create farmland.....maybe little by little we can clean up the mess we've made, stop making more. I don't worry about the future, I know humanity is adaptable and capable.

 

[Toddy]

Your vision of the world appears to be very local. There are considerable differences between the past & the possible future. The scale of the human population & the lack of natural enviroments to act as a buffer when crops fail to name just 2. Sure, humanity can deal with temporary setbacks but our whole civilsation is based on one thing, reliable food production. It isn't hard to imagine the consequences of a generalised crop failure, say across the northern hemisphere. We 'survived' the pandemic because food production continued but had there been a bad cereal harvest in 2019, the world would be a very different place to what it is today. Future problems linked to the weather are likely to be more permanent than in the past, more widespread & more devastating because people can't eat concrete.

My 'local' is the UK and the western edges of Europe.
Europe can feed itself. It's just cheaper to import than it is to grow here, for the present.

The heartlands of industrialisation. Thing is though, while we sit here and say that things have to change, much of the rest of the world is still trying to claw it's way up to our basic living standards.....and all the while their populations grow.

I think that's more the issue that's the elephant in the room.

 

[Lean'n'mean]

.

Humanity is just another creature that altered it's environment to suit itself....now it's not suiting us so well, so we'll slowly change it again.

Looking back in evolution, it is hard to see another species which transformed the planet to suit it's needs. Termite hills & rabbit burrows can't really be compared to man's planetary alterations. Even the weather is partially man made now.

 

[Toddy]

Thing is though; that change is no longer suiting our needs, so we change again. Hopefully

 

[Broch]

I'm going to break my resolution not to get sucked in . But, I see things slightly differently. We will not halt the warming, it's a damped oscillation that we have given a kick to; it will level out and drop again in the future with or without our help, just not fast enough to stop some serious issues.

We need to address the real problem instead of fiddling. The real issue is that we have put up (literally in some cases) steel and concrete boundaries around our countries. In the past, when there were severe climatic changes and far lower population, man just moved, we were semi nomadic. Yes, people died before and during the migrations, and there would have been skirmishes as tribes met, but man was free to move away from the problem. That is no longer the case and we'll have water wars, food wars, territory wars. We need to be planning for solutions to these problems IMO.

The world will not come to an end; as Toddy says man will adapt - we just may not like the new reality. I suspect, life on earth in general, for all other surviving species, will be far better

 

[ManFriday4]

"I think you're cherry picking, and stirring."

At this point I realise that there is little point in continuing to have a conversation. I have given you the best, most up to date peer reviewed data. What you do with it is of course your business.

Just on the point about cherry picking. The study on climate was specifically looking at the Mediterranean, not Northern Europe.

Public Email

le.utah.gov

Accusing someone of cherry picking and sturring is just a method of pushing them out of the conversation.

Congratulations, good luck with the extreme heat.