Climate Change & Survival.
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“I don’t think ‘science’ has quite predicted that society will collapse in 20 years” - Society - that’s was the what OP was about at the start. Prepping.
The climate is as you say royally screwed due to man made climate change. I’m not labouring away trying to argue against that, or those that don’t believe it. You’ve given it good go but nothing was ever settled on a forum debate!
"I think you're cherry picking, and stirring."
At this point I realise that there is little point in continuing to have a conversation. I have given you the best, most up to date peer reviewed data. What you do with it is of course your business.
Just on the point about cherry picking. The study on climate was specifically looking at the Mediterranean, not Northern Europe.
Public Email
le.utah.gov
Accusing someone of cherry picking and sturring is just a method of pushing them out of the conversation.
Congratulations, good luck with the extreme heat.
Not the intent, truly.
The cherry picking comment was to the limited range, while we know with many, many geological and archaeological evidences that change is normal. I'm not disputing that this change is exacerbated by humanity's actions, but the change is normal for the Earth.
The three cycles that Milankovitch wrote about are clearly explained here
Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in Earth's Climate - NASA Science
Small cyclical variations in the shape of Earth's orbit, its wobble and the angle its axis is tilted play key roles in influencing Earth's climate over timespans of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years.
climate.nasa.gov
Thing is though, the regular Milankovich cycles would normally have us in a cooling period.....ice ages.....not a happy time for Northern Europe......and instead we're warming.
Hmmmm.
I do dispute that Humanity will not adapt. I believe we and our descendants will adapt, though I do think that Broch has a very valid point.
After all, if the Ice Age did come on hard, would Britons be the ones trying to get to Africa/ Middle East instead of the present situation ?
Who knows ? but I doubt it's going to happen in our lifetimes, or our children's/g.children's.
What I do know is that the Earth is presently in an interglacial, but in 100,000 years from now there'll be 23% more sunlight hitting the Earth simply because of it's position in the solar system.
Will humanity as we know it be around in 100,000 years ? Personally I think some version of us will. The apes are remarkably tenacious, and adaptable.
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June was glorious, July was wet. August was a cool mixed bag.
I am fair skinned, with freckles. I got sunburnt in June, but nothing since. I don't look tanned and my freckles have not joined up.
In June we pulled the fans down out of the loft. Then they were underfoot through July until I got fed up with them and we put them back up. Haven't even had trouble sleeping because it was too warm since June.
Today was a lovely start to September though
Maybe we'll get an Indian summer yet 
I'm not predicting 20 years or more, at at no point in any of my comments have I done so.
What is well established by peer reviewed science is tha 5°C is where humans will likely go extinct. I know people are talking about adaptation. We need to adapt to now. People in Scotland say they haven't had heatwaves, but have had a few hot days. We'll interestingly Scotland is viewed as a good location for climate safe villages because it is currently far enough north of the 45th parallel which today is the climate frontline. This is why Italy issued sun guidelines: advising people to stay out of the Sun between 11:00 -18:00.
I don't know any climate scientist predicting 20 years.
I think the rising sealevels are likely to be more of an issue for many. Not just low lying island folks, but cities on major estuaries or coastlines.....so London, the Netherlands, etc.,
The geology of the UK and the prevalent tidal actions will literally see the country near cut in half from the Yorkshire (Holderness) coast inwards. Thing is though, all that soil has to go somewhere, and it appears to be drifting southwards and Norfolk's catching a lot of it...unfortunately Norfolk, Cambridge and the like are low lying and likely to flood if sealevels rise much.
The old adage about what can't change dies seems more and more relevant.
The geology of the UK and the prevalent tidal actions will literally see the country near cut in half from the Yorkshire (Holderness) coast inwards. Thing is though, all that soil has to go somewhere, and it appears to be drifting southwards and Norfolk's catching a lot of it...unfortunately Norfolk, Cambridge and the like are low lying and likely to flood if sealevels rise much.
The old adage about what can't change dies seems more and more relevant.
Milankovich cycles cannot counter the heating caused by the additional CO2 & CH4.
However this year, 2024 & 2025 the Milankovich cycle which takes us closer to the sun along with the super El Nino which is already causing flooding in Guadalajara,Mexico is pushing the global temperature to 1.5-1.85°C which will cause tipping points to be crossed and slow feedbacks to start.
It will be easier to move towards 3°C than back to 1.5°C.
None of this is good news, none of this is pleasurable.
However this year, 2024 & 2025 the Milankovich cycle which takes us closer to the sun along with the super El Nino which is already causing flooding in Guadalajara,Mexico is pushing the global temperature to 1.5-1.85°C which will cause tipping points to be crossed and slow feedbacks to start.
It will be easier to move towards 3°C than back to 1.5°C.
None of this is good news, none of this is pleasurable.
That was the OP. That was what I was commenting on, in the post you quoted.
Anyway I thought you were done with this thread?
I was, but your comment made sense, and now Toddy has clarified his comment.That was the OP. That was what I was commenting on, in the post you quoted.
Anyway I thought you were done with this thread?
Rest assured I am not happy about our predicament.
Really?
Did you not hear on the news about the weather in southern Europe and the problems they were having? Are you not aware of the heat crisis taking place in Asia?
Big thought for you: the climate is bigger than just your back yard.
I suspect Tengu was just joking about the weather she experienced in Scotland this summer. I'm sure she is more than aware of the seriousness of the issue.
Hopefully.
Though there is a good number of people who think because where they live it's been raining, or because it's been a cooler Summer (so far - next week the forecast is for temperatures up to 30C in the south east) than previous years, that the whole climate change thing is utter nonsense.
Mind you, there are also people out there who buy Ed Sheeran and Adele music. Just goes to show - people can't be trusted.
Though there is a good number of people who think because where they live it's been raining, or because it's been a cooler Summer (so far - next week the forecast is for temperatures up to 30C in the south east) than previous years, that the whole climate change thing is utter nonsense.
Mind you, there are also people out there who buy Ed Sheeran and Adele music. Just goes to show - people can't be trusted.
It's very easy to look at the weather in Britain now and mistake weather for climate.
Just to emphasise what @Wander is saying the drought in France is deepening and affecting their grain harvest, and this is not just their grain, but grain across the world is being impacted.
The problem with this attitude is that if you are only looking at your immediate locality as your barometer or don't even believe that climate change is real then when the seriousness of the situation hits, you are not prepared for it.
I have been an observer of many prepper & bushcrafters channels for years and there are very few who really grasp what climate change is and the existential threat it poses.
Pet prepper subjects seem to be nuclear war (MAD), EMP, solar winds (Carrington Event), cost of living crisis, migrants, climate lockdowns & pandemic/Anti mask/ Anti vax. I have only watched about 3 or 4 who talk about Climate change..
Ray Mears admits we will struggle to survive climate change
"The question is our survival. That's what's at stake. ' Mears also called for more wild camping sites to help build resilience in the young as he claimed we are living in the most 'dangerous period of our time'" from the daily mail, which I don't read.
interestingly what Mears possibly doesnt realise is that a lot of veteran activists from the 1990 lived in protest camps. Spending a few nights under canvas can not prepare you for living on protest camps, in tree houses- sometimes all through the winter..
"The question of our survival is what is at stake"
amazing that this might be the greatest existential threat we face and people would rather believe conspiracy theories.
I know we have had drastic climate change in the far distant past, and even minor fluctuations in more recent times. But in those far flung ancient days , I wonder how much coal was being burnt and how many cars and planes were pumping carbon pollution into the atmosphere?
Most of the changes in climate in the past took many thousands of years.
We have, as humans, made major changes in a few hundred. Its the rate of change to our world that is problematic.
We are now undoubtedly in a runaway situation. Anything we do now, (such as heat pumps, ulez ,electric cars, etc,) has come far too late, and unless these measures are taken world wide, of very little use.
Look at how many millions of trees have burnt in Canada this year alone, pumping carbon into the atmosphere.
Trees are the air purifiers of our planet. Take them out of the equation, and we have serious trouble. We can never plant enough new ones to make up for those destroyed, many of which are many years old. The huge canopy just one tree, cleaning far more than a dozen newly planted whips.
The ocean is warming exostentialy, and we are now seeing sharks and jellyfish in numbers that we have never seen before on our shores.
The signs are there for those who have their eyes open. Sadly it's head in the sand for too many,...Untill it's too late. Remember Noah? He was scoffed at, but when push came to shove, people were begging for him to help when things could no longer be denied.
We all have a duty , unto 7 generations, to look after our planet. Most people seem to have forgotten that.
We happily keep consuming stuff we don't need, throwing it away washing synthetic clothing, and clogging up our beautiful ocean with micro plastics and plastic bottles and toothbrushes that we then happily eat with our fish and chips.
Good luck those who don't think we have a problem, or that we will solve it with a nuclearpower station or electric car. Just wondering what your great grandkids will think of the majority of today's attitudes..(if the darlings even exist!) When they are all trying to cram onto a small Scottish island to try and escape the last heatwave before the plastic coated water runs out.
A bit extreme? Possibly, but maybe not. Can't rule anything out.
Mankind is a selfish animal.
Most of the changes in climate in the past took many thousands of years.
We have, as humans, made major changes in a few hundred. Its the rate of change to our world that is problematic.
We are now undoubtedly in a runaway situation. Anything we do now, (such as heat pumps, ulez ,electric cars, etc,) has come far too late, and unless these measures are taken world wide, of very little use.
Look at how many millions of trees have burnt in Canada this year alone, pumping carbon into the atmosphere.
Trees are the air purifiers of our planet. Take them out of the equation, and we have serious trouble. We can never plant enough new ones to make up for those destroyed, many of which are many years old. The huge canopy just one tree, cleaning far more than a dozen newly planted whips.
The ocean is warming exostentialy, and we are now seeing sharks and jellyfish in numbers that we have never seen before on our shores.
The signs are there for those who have their eyes open. Sadly it's head in the sand for too many,...Untill it's too late. Remember Noah? He was scoffed at, but when push came to shove, people were begging for him to help when things could no longer be denied.
We all have a duty , unto 7 generations, to look after our planet. Most people seem to have forgotten that.
We happily keep consuming stuff we don't need, throwing it away washing synthetic clothing, and clogging up our beautiful ocean with micro plastics and plastic bottles and toothbrushes that we then happily eat with our fish and chips.
Good luck those who don't think we have a problem, or that we will solve it with a nuclearpower station or electric car. Just wondering what your great grandkids will think of the majority of today's attitudes..(if the darlings even exist!) When they are all trying to cram onto a small Scottish island to try and escape the last heatwave before the plastic coated water runs out.
A bit extreme? Possibly, but maybe not. Can't rule anything out.
Mankind is a selfish animal.
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Mankind is an adaptable animal.
Here we sit, every one of us on this forum, using plastics, using electronics made the other side of the world from minerals mined in Africa, Australia, South America, in our comfortable powered homes, with food in the fridge, clothes in the wardrobes, etc.,.....and would any of us give this up ?
And, if we won't/can't/don't how can we expect those folks in the more slowly 'developing' world to do so ?
I don't think we can. So, instead of trying to backtrack humanity into somekind of rural misery.....living on the land without using modern fuel powered machinery is damned hard work.....how about we think how to live sustainably ? and live without needing to despoil other lands ?
Right enough, there's India, just blasted off another rocket, yet more than half it's burgeoning population don't even have decent toilets
Or the F1 racing burning enough fuel to supply a town in a race...each car uses 110L per race. My car tank holds 37L and that lasts me over a month.
Too many examples to quote
The old adage about the poor being always with us, rankles in the light of modern potentials.
Here we sit, every one of us on this forum, using plastics, using electronics made the other side of the world from minerals mined in Africa, Australia, South America, in our comfortable powered homes, with food in the fridge, clothes in the wardrobes, etc.,.....and would any of us give this up ?
And, if we won't/can't/don't how can we expect those folks in the more slowly 'developing' world to do so ?
I don't think we can. So, instead of trying to backtrack humanity into somekind of rural misery.....living on the land without using modern fuel powered machinery is damned hard work.....how about we think how to live sustainably ? and live without needing to despoil other lands ?
Right enough, there's India, just blasted off another rocket, yet more than half it's burgeoning population don't even have decent toilets
Or the F1 racing burning enough fuel to supply a town in a race...each car uses 110L per race. My car tank holds 37L and that lasts me over a month.
Too many examples to quote
The old adage about the poor being always with us, rankles in the light of modern potentials.
Sigh ... just look at the amount of coal Chine burns. Almost nothing we do has any effect in comparison to that.
Mankind is an adaptable animal.
Here we sit, every one of us on this forum, using plastics, using electronics made the other side of the world from minerals mined in Africa, Australia, South America, in our comfortable powered homes, with food in the fridge, clothes in the wardrobes, etc.,.....and would any of us give this up ?
And, if we won't/can't/don't how can we expect those folks in the more slowly 'developing' world to do so ?
I don't think we can. So, instead of trying to backtrack humanity into somekind of rural misery.....living on the land without using modern fuel powered machinery is damned hard work.....how about we think how to live sustainably ? and live without needing to despoil other lands ?
Right enough, there's India, just blasted off another rocket, yet more than half it's burgeoning population don't even have decent toilets
Or the F1 racing burning enough fuel to supply a town in a race...each car uses 110L per race. My car tank holds 37L and that lasts me over a month.
Too many examples to quote
The old adage about the poor being always with us, rankles in the light of modern potentials.
That's all very true, but instead of just saying there is nothing I as one person can do in the face of this looming disaster, we all need to think about our footprint and try to do our best to minimise it. At least we can say we did our best.
But what is our best?
I have a reusable cup and water bottle on me whenever I go out. If I get a takeaway cuppa, I produce my cup, and ask for it to be filled instead of a plastic coated paper cup that gets thrown away, and even if it's "recyclable" costs more recourses to do so.
I'm reducing my waste, my main bin is less than a quarter full, and hasn't been out for collection for two months. Nor has my paper and plastic bins been out for 3 weeks, still only half full, and no glass to be recycled either as I reuse most of it anyway.
I don't have TV, or computer, but plenty of books and crafts to learn and make things.
So electronic gadgets are my phone, radio, electric kettle, cooker washing machine and fridge freezer. Oh, and heat pump heating system, along with a multifuel stove for when it needs supplementation such as extreme cold, or power cuts.
I've sold my beloved motorbike.
(Yes, tears were shed) I now car share with a friend for journeys, or pay them if I realy need to go somewhere. I've spent much less than my insurance alone this year on travel.
I still have £150 of government money in my electricity account.
I have a productive veg garden that gives me hours of pleasure and connection to nature, aswell as food all summer long, and part of the winter too. Meat is consumed once a month, and is locally produced.
I haven't been to a large supermarket for nearly a year. I don't need to.
I shop for clothes and other needs in charity shops. Linnen tops, wool sweaters and blankets, that I could never afford new. Plus I'm not ordering off amazon or whatever, racking up more costs and pollution in manufacture and transport. (Yesterday, two glass clip top le parfet jars for half new cost.)
My walk into town gives me enough blackberries for tea tonight. Enough elder berries for elderberry syrup, which I make listening to the radio instead of watching TV.
I buy honey from local producers, not the cheap sugar adulterated supermarket stuff.
It costs more, but as I'm saving elsewhere, I can afford it.
Presents are charity shop bargains, preloved, or hand made. So is my furniture, (apart from my bed and mattress, bought 5 yrs ago, first new furniture in over 30 yrs)
I haven't gone backwards. I'm thriving, and loving being the sort of person who walks their talk, and is relatively self reliant in comparison to many.
It's a challenge for sure, and it's not always easy, but it realy brings home what you realy need to be comfortable. We have gotten too used to pushing a button for instant gratification or need that we no longer are aware what we are doing or even think about it.
We don't have to go back to medievil times to be comfortable and sustainable. If we all changed as much as we could, rather than making token gestures with our recycling bins and electric cars, much more could be done to live sustainable lives.
Trouble is, we are too busy making money to have these home comforts, we are either too tired and just want to slump in front of a TV or box set, or have no time to make, and do things that would have been normal, even back in the 70's, we have no time to live sustainable lives. Catch 22.
Work to live, not live to work. It can be done.
My new wool rug, is a fleece that would have been thrown away. I rescued two, and they are now soaking in a tin bath in the garden to clean them, and i shall be weaving it on a peg loom, which any half handy chap could knock up in a few hours. Saving them from landfill, and producing something worthwhile into the bargain.
I'm doing my best, and keep looking for more ways to improve. So I'm not being holier than thou, as I'm sure many are doing a lot of what I do too, at least, I'd hope so!
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