Climate Change & Survival.

[Deleted member 56522]

TED talk on what a small scale nuclear war some way from the UK would do to the world.

As I said, he agrees, it is not the blast that kills ... it is the potential impact on climate due to cooling. Moreover, the same people who say "nothing can stop global warming" ... are the same people who say "even a small nuclear war will cause mass cooling of the climate. It doesn't take a genius to work out they are exaggerating in some way.

Looking at climate, it is clear we are overdue for a flip from the current balmy interglacial to a frigid and desert like glacial period. And, so there is a chance that a nuclear war, and the "nuclear winter" that it causes, could trigger the flip into the next ice-age. (The irony is that rising CO2 may be preventing the flip!)

However, because no one knows what causes these flips - because they went nuts about warming and started denying that the climate will flip into the next ice-age at some point & stopped research - it's possible a nuclear war, kills a lot of people in cities, dramatically reduces crop yields for a few years (but there's far few people, and most farmland is intact, so not quite the problem it seems) and then we go back to normal. Only for a few hundred years later, the climate to flip into the ice-age, for some as yet not understood reason, and only then kill most people (just as the world recovers from the nuclear war!)

 

[Coach]

You're totally nuts. Nuclear weapons might make a very big bang, but they only kill large numbers when aimed at a city. There just aren't enough to hit every small town or village.

In contrast, a new ice-age not only makes all the north uninhabitable, it also turns most food growing areas into deserts. And, even if you happen to be in one of the few areas where it isn't too cold nor too dry ... the whole planet goes into a form of "CO2 desert" where plant growth all but stops throughout the globe. Indeed, given the trend toward falling CO2 and longer ice-ages, this may literally be the last dance of life on earth before the globe goes into a perpetual snowball, where the only life on earth are a few sulphur eating bacteria at the bottom of the sea.

So your thinking is that anyone who is more frightened by the very real prospect of global nuclear annihilation as opposed to the theoretical possibility of a future weather event is " totally nuts"?? Great contribution to the debate.
Correct me if I'm wrong but mankind did exist in and survive the last ice age didnt he?? Survived and subsequently prospered I believe.
Still, you carry on worrying about the weather and leave the worrying about Putin to the rest of us and we'll agree to differ. Have a good day and dont forget to pack your thermal long johns.

 

[Deleted member 56522]

So your thinking is that anyone who is more frightened by the very real prospect of global nuclear annihilation as opposed to the theoretical possibility of a future weather event is " totally nuts"?? Great contribution to the debate.

Yes, billions of people will easily survive a total nuclear war (when we exclude possibility of flip to ice-age).

Correct me if I'm wrong but mankind did exist in and survive the last ice age didnt he?? Survived and subsequently prospered I believe.

The conditions were so dire that most species of hominid went extinct. The problem for modern humans, is that we rely on farming, and farming will be particularly hard hit. If you are a bushman of the Kalahari, a pygmy in the Congo jungle, an Alaskan Inuit, ... and many other groups who can survive without modern farming, you could probably do quite well, albeit you have to migrate toward the equator.

But if you're a civil servant, banker, teacher, etc., living in little Uddington, then you are probably going to die.

Still, you carry on worrying about the weather and leave the worrying about Putin to the rest of us and we'll agree to differ. Have a good day and dont forget to pack your thermal long johns.

The average chance of dying from warm weather in the hottest years in the UK is 0.003%, the chance of dying from covid was 0.1 to 0.2%. The average chance of dying from the next ice-age during a normal lifetime is about 5%. Personally, if a nuclear war didn't risk starting the next ice-age, I'd take the risk of a nuclear war over the next ice-age.

Because, when the next ice-age starts, the first thing that is likely to happen is a global war. And, even if you are one of the smart people who saw it coming and moved to somewhere that can sustain life during the ice-age ... it will soon be invaded by hoards of armed people determined to take it over for themselves.

 

[Coach]

Yes, billions of people will easily survive a total nuclear war (when we exclude possibility of flip to ice-age).

The conditions were so dire that most species of hominid went extinct. The problem for modern humans, is that we rely on farming, and farming will be particularly hard hit. If you are a bushman of the Kalahari, a pygmy in the Congo jungle, an Alaskan Inuit, ... and many other groups who can survive without modern farming, you could probably do quite well, albeit you have to migrate toward the equator.

But if you're a civil servant, banker, teacher, etc., living in little Uddington, then you are probably going to die.

The average chance of dying from warm weather in the hottest years in the UK is 0.003%, the chance of dying from covid was 0.1 to 0.2%. The average chance of dying from the next ice-age during a normal lifetime is about 5%. Personally, if a nuclear war didn't risk starting the next ice-age, I'd take the risk of a nuclear war over the next ice-age.

Because, when the next ice-age starts, the first thing that is likely to happen is a global war. And, even if you are one of the smart people who saw it coming and moved to somewhere that can sustain life during the ice-age ... it will soon be invaded by hoards of armed people determined to take it over for themselves.

Tara then.

 

[Deleted member 56522]

Tara then.

See you on the other side.

 

[Coach]

See you on the other side.

Forgive me but I'll take a raincheck on that.

 

[Deleted member 56522]

Forgive me but I'll take a raincheck on that.

I think you mean a snowcheck

 

[Corso]

If russian nuclear capabilities are anything like their conventional tactics they only have to worry about themselves

 

[Hammock_man]

Corso sir, Thanking like that is like saying "its ok cos he is only *issing in his half of the water tank".
I do think there is a real possibility of them cooking off one their special weapons on the launch pad. Still would not stop them from trying again and again.

 

[Suffolkrafter]

its ok cos he is only *issing in his half of the water tank

I get the feeling that everyone #isses in all halves of everyone's water tanks these days.

 

[Lean'n'mean]

31°C today & over 40°C forecast for saturday. Whenever the temperature exceeds 35°C any wish I may have for survival evaporates.

 

[Scottieoutdoors]

I am skeptical of anything thats written in the media because of the way its written... I like to apply common sense to most things I do in life... driving a vehicle requires burning a product to produce the necessary energy for propulsion, it then emits a waste product (exhaust) which is unpleasant to breathe... that suggests to me its not a good thing...it doesn't take a genius to understand the processes involved to get the original fuel to the fuel pump aren't good for the world either. But, again, Shell and the giant energy corps have been sitting on green technology for decades now, seeing how long they can keep riding the black gold gravy train... now its all about electric and "green energy" even being pushed by Shell.. and I'm supposed to swallow that?

I've known a lot of people who have switched to electric and they sit there with 0 miles on the clock and do this "starting from now, I'm amazing and green"...as if plugging into the socket taps into some pool of unlimited damage free energy, and as if the cars creation itself did not cost environmental chits ... I also know many people who have bought electric cars for purely financial decisions with their businesses, maybe its a good thing, maybe they're inadvertently helping, but it's not being done for the right reasons and that concerns me.

I just don't buy it, or rather I just don't buy the solutions. A few exceptions would be solar solutions with panels for energy and photovoltaic tubes for hot water.. but most of these are a money based decisions, houses with them are a little higher priced, money in the bank is worth zilch, might as well "invest" it into solar doofers and watch money being clawed back.

I also noticed Greta on page 1. So what's the agenda then, are we honestly going to say some completely random girl from Sweden with no qualifications in the matter managed to get elevated to the position of global voice of the people? As some mentioned on here, you've been fighting the cause since before she was born, why weren't you put into that position? You probably knew more about the topic... but somehow she's there in front of millions? And whilst I appreciate the "if you were her dad" comment about the meme, if I was her dad, I'd be skeptical about launching a teenage girl with aspergers to the fore front of the world peddaling some topic she has an interest in, but no actual qualifications...or maybe I wouldn't? Maybe it'd be a fun wave to ride, book deal, TV deals, travelling the world...

 

[ManFriday4]

This year, the Earth & humans experienced 5 of the hottest days in 150,000 years- Bill McKibben.

I think the best paper which clearly explains what is happening with the climate & aerosol masking. Which is based on current emissions of 420ppm CO2, taking into account slow feedbacks is Dr James E Hansen et al, Global Warming in the Pipeline for Earth.

"Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era -- including "slow" feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases -- supports this ECS and implies that CO2 was about 300 ppm in the Pliocene and 400 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, thus exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming including slow feedbacks for today's human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (4.1 W/m2) is 10°C, reduced to 8°C by today's aerosols."

[2212.04474] Global warming in the pipeline

Peer reviewed.

5°C is not survivable.

Here is a nice little video from Paul Beckwith Oceanographer & Climatologist.

So what does this actually mean for us now?

Alot. Increased climatic temperature means the atmosphere can hold more moisture which means that storms can be more ferocious, rainstorms are becoming pluvial which means they are heavier and cause catastrophic damage to the landscape- mudslides, flash flooding & severe erosion.

Increased heat combined with increased humidity can lead to fatal consequences for humans. These are known as wet-bulb temperatures, these are deadly combinations in which the human body sweating ceases to cool which can lead to heatstroke & death for humans and animals.

We are now beyond the point at which people can be sceptical of the science. It is basically outright denial. You can believe what you like,but wet ulb temperatures are real.

My blog post about severe heat has 2 °C & °F wet bulb tables which can be downloaded and printed for future reference.

Why Severe Heat is More Dangerous than Severe Cold.

This is the Pyrocene, the Age of Burning . The Age of Fire The Northern Boreal Forests are on fire, there are wildfire across southern Europ...

climateriskresearch.blogspot.com

People like me are nicknamed Doomers or Collapse aware. We are used to taking flack from climate deniers. We aren't preppers in the traditional sense, we lack the paranoia about nuclear war, climate change IMHO is more deadly than MAD.


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[ManFriday4]

Anthropogenic global warming & climate change is accelerating & worsening. The UK has experienced these disasters recently, & so has the rest of Europe. Here in Australia we are experiencing unprecedented floods. Science predicts that society could collapse within the next 20 years, & todays youth may not survive climate change. This is a climate emergency, & yet life for most people goes on as if nothing is happening.

Are any of you preparing for the coming disasters? What are your preparations?
Keith.

In just over 18 months, so much has changed. I wonder how many people are looking back at these posts & comments after we have had temperatures of 40°C in the UK, severe heatwaves, and wet-bulb temperatures of 31-35°C.

"40°C heatwave may have killed 1000 people in England and Wales"

40°C heatwave may have killed 1000 people in England and Wales

First estimate of extreme heat's impact suggests more than half of the deaths are expected to have been for people aged 85 and older

www.newscientist.com

Who could have foreseen that the Boreal Forests would burn the way they are and that this would become known as the Pyrocene?

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[ManFriday4]

I don’t think ‘science’ has quite predicted that society will collapse in 20 years. It will very certainly be different… The current war may give some focus to our oil and gas based world economy and the effects it has on climate and climate change.

I’m taking practical steps now to reduce my own carbon footprint but I’m not prepping for 20 years time.

I beg to disagree with you. Scientist like James E Hansen predicted climate collapse in the 1980s when he worked in NASA Jet propulsion lab.

The earth temperature will reach 1.5°C in the next 2 years, accelerated by the El Nino. It was expected that thos wouldn't happen for at least 10 years or before 2030.

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[ManFriday4]

Still, lets play on while the ship sinks eh?

Actually what denial & this rudness is, is rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic to the highest point of the sinking ship and looking away from the part of the ship that is under water.

They are all on the same boat as the rest of us.

Us doomers (I speak for myself only) have been paddling in the water while piping up the band. The thing about the collapse aware is we see it coming, survival?

Put it this way, the 45th parallel is the frontline, anything south of that is in the death zone. Everyone south of that will be heading north for refuge from the heat. The frontline will move slowly north.

The heat will kill us 1st.

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[ManFriday4]

I guarantee you'll look back on that post in 25 years and laugh

In 2 years from now we will be at 1.5°C or possibly closer to 2°C above pre industrial levels (1850). Due to the Super El Nino.

You might think you could look back at these comments 25 years from now and laugh, but I doubt it. You see 1.5-2°C is catastrophic. Most rivers, lakes & oceans will be devoid of life due to excessive warming which in turn depletes Oxygen- fish drown. Agriculture & our ability to grow grain at scale is likely to collapse.

Paul Beckwith explains why we should expect global warming to skyrocket in the next 1.5 years, it is once again based on a peer reviewed paper by James E Hansen

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[ManFriday4]

I dont buy the solutions..

And you are right not to trust them.

Photovoltaics, wind & nuclear are not solutions. They are primarily ways to keep capitalism going and make money from the crisis.

They do not remove CO2 from the atmosphere, in fact they require fossil fuels to be manufactured.



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[ManFriday4]

I see much speculation on the return to an Ice Age. Year on year Arctic & Antarctic sea ice have been declining.

Milankovich cycles used to govern earth's ice age cycles.

Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in Earth's Climate – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

Small cyclical variations in the shape of Earth's orbit, its wobble and the angle its axis is tilted play key roles in influencing Earth's climate over timespans of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years.

climate.nasa.gov

BUT, and this is important, the amount of warming caused by current CO2 of 420ppm in the atmosphere overrides the effect of the Milankovich cycles we are not heading for another ice age, we are heading into and ice free earth.

The notion that we can adapt is a fallacy. This is "abrupt & irreversible climate change". It would break the laws of physics to believe that we can recapture the CO2 in the atmosphere. The idea that it is plant food has no basis in science. Yes plants do absorb CO2, but not in the significant quantities required to halt or reverse climate change.

Climate change normally happens over geologic time- a couple of million years. Humans are affecting the climate over 300 years from the burning of coal & oil.

We cannot adapt because nature, upon which we depend is unable to adapt in 300 years. Because adaptation through natural selection also takes place over geologic. Time.



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[ManFriday4]

I don't think it's denial. I think it's a hearty dose of scepticism.

What can't change dies.
That's reality that has proven itself since the dinosaurs or before.

But changing realities takes time unless you actually want to live in a disaster.

Most folks will quietly get on board with managing to be more aware of multiple issues, habits, resources, etc., but to claim that life will implode and society will fall when all evidences show that regardless of the upheaval, be it disease, natural disaster, war, drought, etc., that society re-establishes itself. Trade re-establishes, law and order re-establish, and life goes on.

I wish this optimism agreed with the science. But unfortunately James E Hansens assessment based on today's emissions does not agree.

The Boreal forests across Canada & Russia are on fire, they are the world's largest carbon sink. The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (not the gulf stream)) is being disrupted by excessive global heating.

Grain, rice and corn, global cereal harvests are suffering under climate change. National governments are banning grain exports & stockpiling ahead of a looming global famine.

The problem is compound multi event disasters occurring one after another or all at once.

There is nothing healthy about being sceptical about Climate change.

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