I saw this today.
Olle Karlström, investigator at the Swedish Medical Products Agency and Infection Doctor at Karolinska Hospital (the leading Medical research hospital in Sweden), gives us a snapshot of the Corona virus and how we should think together to help prevent the spread of infection.
He writes: The disease symptoms are mild to the absolute majority. The fact that the spread of SARS-CoV-2 goes so fast means that the majority of those infected should have mild symptoms, and now we know that is the case. The figures on the "number of infected" and the number of deaths reported daily on the news are very misleading. In Wuhan, where it all started, it can be assumed that a very large part of the population (11 million) is infected, not 80,000 as stated in news; only those with more severe symptoms have been tested. Maybe 3-4 million have been infected there, rather. On the other hand, the number of deceased people is quite accurate.
Wuhan is a densely populated metropolis, and my impression is that generational living is common in China i.e. Grandmother/Grandfather lives with children and grandchildren. An effective way for rapid dissemination to the risk groups, ie the elderly.
This is confirmed by what we have seen so far at Karolinska Hospital, where I work at the infection clinic half my working time. Initially, people with respiratory symptoms who came home from risk areas (especially Italy) were invited to test themselves. Of the approximately 250 people who have tested positive, almost all have had common cold symptoms, or symptoms of mild flu. Of these, virtually none have had to be admitted for medical reasons in connection with testing, and of those sent home for quarantine, virtually no one has had to seek care later because of more severe symptoms.
Our Swedish data taken from Ground Zero shows that the disease symptoms are very mild for the absolute majority. The vast majority of those who have suffered from severe illness, and have died, in China and Italy, are old (80+) and usually have some underlying medical problems.
It is therefore important to understand that in the coming year a large proportion of the Swedish population will have received the infection, most without having labeled it nothing other than as a common cold. There is no way to prevent this. A small proportion will have severe illness, and by and large it will be for the elderly and the sick. Children have not been affected by severe illness, although they have certainly become highly infected abroad in China and Italy.
Stay home if you're sick. All the calls and measures that are being made now have a single purpose: to make the spread (which will happen) go at a slower pace so that the small proportion of people who become seriously ill can be cared for in a good way in health care, and not come in too large a number at the same time.
Many are now afraid to become infected themselves after seeing images from Italy and stay at home for this reason. It's understandable, but wrongly thought out. We should keep going to work but go home when we feel a cold coming on. Children should, at least for now, go to school but be home when they are poorly. Then you should also not go to work/the store and infect people there when someone is sick at home. This is a show of solidarity for the elderly, for the aforementioned reasons. Grandparents should not take care of the sick children.
In Italy, the spread has certainly been going on for much longer than stated, and dissemination took place early (without realizing it) even among healthcare professionals and in hospitals. The measures now being taken in Italy are likely to have little impact on the future.
What is the most effective way to prevent infection right now?
Don't be at work and school if you are feeling unwell. Stay at home and watch Netflix. If you feel sick, do not meet or invite friends into your home and don’t just pop to the shops. Wait two days after you feel well before returning to work or sending children to school. Wash your hands when you come to work, before you eat and when you come home from work. Use common sense.
You should not avoid going to work, meeting friends and living as usual as long as you do not have any symptoms. Grandchildren can say hello to Grandma via Skype rather than meeting indoors. Take the chance to start cycling and go to work - that's the top for more reasons.
It is important to understand that the advanced protective equipment now used at the infection clinics is designed to prevent infection from reaching the ward and other patients, not to protect the staff as such. We will be infected as much as others. At the shops, on the bus or other places where we pick up our colds.
Please note that the healthcare system is now changing its sampling recommendations. We will only take samples for medical reasons. That is, just as we usually take samples for respiratory tract infection, when taking a position to treat for pneumonia and when hospitalized.
What exactly is Covid-19?
The Coronavirus (CoV) family has long been present in humans. There are a number of different strains and Coronavirus constitutes a proportion of the viruses that give us common cold. More recently, three new Corona strains have taken to humans from the animal kingdom, a virus to which we have no immunity.
In 2002, there was a minor epidemic with Corona where the disease was named SARS (Severe Acute Respitatory Syndrome) in China but also Canada had a number of cases. This virus, called SARS-CoV, caused severe symptoms in a large proportion of those who became ill, and mortality was high. The virus died out - a virus that causes such severe symptoms is rarely spread effectively in the population (you do not go around and transmit it in the form of common cold).
2012 came the next coronavirus, originating in Saudi Arabia. The source of infection was camels. This virus causes pronounced airway disease, and human-to-human infection has been sparse, and no actual outbreaks have occurred. The disease condition was called MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) and the virus is called MERS-CoV.
Now we have the third virus here, where the virus is called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and the disease "COVID-19" (COrona VIral Disease). The spread is completely different, and the picture has become very scary, with images of chaos in China and Italy. The links with the previous two viruses has of course increased concern. However, the clinical picture is quite different for the absolute majority than for the other two, usually with symptoms such as normal upper respiratory tract infection, but where a small proportion, especially the elderly, have pronounced lung effects.
(except the missus of course) so I think I can be very confident of not currently carrying the infection. Anyway, that doesn't change the logic of my proposal; if I sought to get it I would know when I became potentially infectious.
