Cold winter approaching?

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EdS

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
one advantage of my place is I don't need to stack wood - just wander out and cut / colelct logs and branches form the fallen seasoned dead trees in the woods.

i've found it easier to leave the wood where it is than cuting and try and make room for it. JUst cut a week or two's worth at a time
 

Tiley

Life Member
Oct 19, 2006
2,364
375
60
Gloucestershire
I never know quite what to believe. Yes, it has been an excellent year for fruit and it's all come quite early; there are still a huge number of blackberries available and the rowans are groaning under the weight of fruit - but does that mean we're going to have a brutal winter? I'm not so sure. I'd like to believe the weather lore/old wive's tales about nature predicting what's going to happen but the cynic within scoffs at it. Equally, weather forecasters don't always get it right: a few years ago, they predicted a really scorching summer that never materialised; I wonder if their predictions this time around might be similarly flawed.

Personally, I hope I'm wrong: I love winter - the harder, the better. So, I really hope that these forecasts prove to be right. Build up the log pile and bring it on!
 

Retired Member southey

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jun 4, 2006
11,098
13
your house!
I always believe the predictions from the gas companies, they spend millions of extra gas to cope with the added demand of lower temps, they predict up to two months in advance to ensure there is enough in the system you the colder seasons, when it comes down to money they aren't going to trust a wonky system(they don't use the met office systems and models)
 

Qwerty

Settler
Mar 20, 2011
624
14
Ireland
www.instagram.com
Here's a photo that will warm the cockles of your heart

Christmas Day 2010

Ireland-and-UK-from-space-on-Christmas-Day-2010.-Image-MODIS.jpg


They are certainly forecating an interesting winter, but this is just crystal ball gazing at the moment

A long range weather forecaster is predicting an early start to winter 2011-2012 for many regions of the United Kingdom and Ireland. James Madden of Exacta Weather says heavy snowfalls are likely in places as soon as late October and early November.

Last week, UK-based Positive Weather Solutions also predicted that the winter months will be colder than average everywhere and that some regions will experience significantly colder than average temperatures between December and March.

The agency, which has a relatively high success rate in its long range weather predictions, has also given a 36% chance of the Ireland and Britain experiencing a White Christmas. This prediction in reflected in the latest odds from William Hill Bookmakers who have given shortened odds of snow falling on Christmas Day.

The bookmaker have also given odds of 16/1 that the lowest recorded temperature in England will be beaten (-26.1C, Jan 10 1982, Shropshire), and even odds of 100/1 that Big Ben Fails to chime due to being frozen solid and that the Thames will freeze over between Westminster Bridge and Tower Bridge.

The chilly long range forecasts also follow the coolest summer since 1986 in many parts of Ireland and since 1962 in parts of the southwest. The highest temperature recorded this summer was 25.5°C at Oak Park, Co. Carlow on the 3rd of June.

Meanwhile, commenting on the autumn and winter months in his updated seasonal forecast (2 September), James Madden stated that the UK and Ireland can expect a cooler than average theme to continue as we head into autumn. He is predicting a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and winter.

“Although some places further South may see some spells of settled weather at times, the general theme for autumn as a whole looks largely wet and very windy with dominant grey skies. It will be generally unsettled and turn progressively colder with an early start to winter, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland”, he said.

Madden’s Winter Forecast

“As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.”

“The most important factor within our weather forecasting calculations is solar activity and other major natural factors that it influences. Radiant energy from the sun is the primary influence on both the earth’s ocean and atmosphere.”

“Low solar activity and ocean behaviour alter atmospheric circulation and block jet stream patterns that create enhanced moisture in terms of snowfall. The UK and Ireland is hit by prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions, as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop. Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air over the UK.”

“Coupled with other in depth factors such as recent volcanic activity and changes to the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift that we consider, this does not bode well for the severity of the UK and Northern European winter of winter 2011-12. Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas we expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. We have particular concerns as to the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy.”
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/atmosphere/cold/forecaster-predicts-early-winter-snowfall-for-ireland-and-britain/36161.html
 

salad

Full Member
Sep 24, 2008
1,779
134
51
In the Mountains
Well its my first winter living over here in the Alps, I have been told by locals that we will have snow on the ground from oct to march, I have got my winter tyres they will go on in a few weeks, I have got me the missus and the little un some warm down coats and I cant wait to u.se them :) However that said we are still geting days of 27 degrees here at the moment but you can see very clearly nature getting ready to turn fast
 

maadmaan10

New Member
Sep 15, 2011
3
0
Aldershot
You're not wrong matey! Have noticed it the past week in Hampshire/Surrey too.

There is a "weather site" which has been incredibly accurate in the past.......
http://[URL="www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html"]www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html[/URL]

Makes VERY interesting reading - and I'm going camping for 4 days at end of October in lovely damp Wales!!
 

mrcharly

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Jan 25, 2011
3,257
44
North Yorkshire, UK
Order your winter tyres now! Leave it until December and you won't get them until May!

For cars or bicycles?

I've found a shop online selling the bike tyres at 29.99 - and 10% off that if the order is over £100. Anyone want to do a group buy with me? I want studded tyres this winter, got sick of crashing on the ice last year.
 

IanM

Nomad
Oct 11, 2004
380
0
UK
This should cause a few deaths:
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/republic-of-ireland/irish-government-tells-households-to-buy-barbecues-to-beat-winter-freeze-16046808.html

Householders in the Republic of Ireland have been told to deal with freezing weather by buying a barbecue.

An Irish government department reviewed the situation that arose in the past two winters and concluded that every home should have "some barbecue trays" on hand in case they're snowed in.

In conjures up an image of shivering families hunched over a smoking fire in their gardens, cooking sausages while surrounded by blankets, snow and ice.

The Republic's department of the rnvironment confirmed that it was expecting families to use barbecues for cooking if their gas or electricity was cut off.
 

santaman2000

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jan 15, 2011
16,909
1,114
67
Florida
I've got to ask; I understand how ice could bring down electric lines but just how does cold shut off underground gas lines? That's why I got the gas package when I had my house here built; hurricanes don't interrupt gas supplies. It's hard to see how cold would either.
 

Retired Member southey

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jun 4, 2006
11,098
13
your house!
I would guess the majority of homes out in the cuds have bottle gas delivered, like Scotland, no trucks out delivering due to snow, means no gas ater a few days\weeks,
 

Martti

Full Member
Mar 12, 2011
919
18
Finland
MTV3's meteorologist Pekka Pouta is predicting that Finland will see her first minus temperatures during next Sunday. This is quite normal for this time of the year, but I will hope that we will receive a winter like previous ones, so I do not have to stare at the blank ground in the dark during rest of the year. First snow will probably fall within a month, I think.
http://www.mtv3.fi/uutiset/kotimaa.shtml/2011/09/1391574/mittari-putoaa-pakkasella-sunnuntaiyona (in Finnish)
 

santaman2000

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jan 15, 2011
16,909
1,114
67
Florida
I would guess the majority of homes out in the cuds have bottle gas delivered, like Scotland, no trucks out delivering due to snow, means no gas ater a few days\weeks,

Thanks. I'd forgotten the bottle sizes there. The rural areas here also have to have their gas delivered; but they usually have their own tank (500 gallon) and a tanker truck fills it (or partially fills to suit the customer's order) every month or so depending on usage. So a rural homeowner here would start with a month or more's supply.
 

Qwerty

Settler
Mar 20, 2011
624
14
Ireland
www.instagram.com

What else do you expect from an overpaid, under worked, civil servant desk-jokey? Although I am not aware of any statistics to say that more people die in the winter from barbequing in the snow/cold than in the summer/rain? I would have thought it's more of a rubbish and ill conceived government paper than a recipe for disaster though? I've grilled in the snow quite a few times in the past and lived to tell the tail ;)
 

nickliv

Settler
Oct 2, 2009
755
0
Aberdeenshire
Already looking for winter tyres, although finding Nokian WR A3's in 215/55/R17 is like looking for rocking horse poo.
…and Continental don't seem to do the ExtremeWinterContacts in the uk :(

Have you tried Camskill (Alternatively, pick up some smaller diameter wheels, off another car in the range then youll get a better choice of tyres, you'll not knacker your wheels with the salt, and its easier to change them over again come spring.
 

treefrog

Full Member
Aug 4, 2008
650
35
South Yorkshire
Have you tried Camskill (Alternatively, pick up some smaller diameter wheels, off another car in the range then youll get a better choice of tyres, you'll not knacker your wheels with the salt, and its easier to change them over again come spring.

It's difficult to get the right wheels (Subaru Outback - 5x100, 17x7JJ and 48 offset) so i managed to get another set of 4 second hand original equipment alloys off Ebay for £100. :)
Pneus-online and lovetyres both do Conti wintercontacts 830P's and Nokian WR A3's, but don't have the stock yet. Camskill are a bit light on range too.
Having used Conti and Nokian in Norway for the past 6 winters i wouldn't fit any thing else.

(I have found http://www.reifen.com/en that has a good range of winter tyres, just need to brace myself for the €4.95 per tyre delivery)
 
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