National Risk Register/National Resilience Update - Nothing new to us.

[HorseGuy]

Most of the veterans I know will need some much larger kit and will fail the most basic fitness tests. I generalise obviously, some are still pretty fit, but if they are looking to recruit those whom are now in there 40/50’s they’ll struggle to get many ‘ready to go’. Most folk, myself included struggle to keep the level fitness required to do proper soldiering.

I've never been in the army so this is only my amateur and probably completely wrong impression of how war in Ukraine is currently being fought.

It seems to me that the majority of the soldiers now are conscripted older men in their 40's and 50's with only basic training and are poorly equipped. It also seems to me that their main purpose is to find enemy locations when they get shot at and to draw drone fire away from the other 10% of soldiers which make up the highly trained and well equipped special forces who are doing more important work elsewhere.

 

[Sooty22]

I've never been in the army so this is only my amateur and probably completely wrong impression of how war in is Ukraine currently being fought.

It seems to me that the majority of the soldiers now are conscripted older men in their 40's and 50's with only basic training and are poorly equipped. It also seems to me that their main purpose is to find enemy locations when they get shot at and to draw drone fire away from the other 10% of soldiers which make up the highly trained and well equipped special forces portion who are doing more important work elsewhere.

Ι think the war in Ukraine has turned into a WW1-type trench warfare style stalemate along the 'front', due to both sides having developed equipment that allows defending an area very effectively from infantry, so they just resort to endless onslaught of attack upon attack that keep getting repelled or won for a bit and at extreme cost, or just bombing each other with missiles and larger drones. Small FPV drones are lethal, as bad as the machine gun and gas attacks were in WW1.
Not sure what the 'panzer' equivalent will be in the future, which will overcome all that and start a new 'blitzkrieg', but it scares me.

 

[TeeDee]

Ι think the war in Ukraine has turned into a WW1-type trench warfare style stalemate along the 'front', due to both sides having developed equipment that allows defending an area very effectively from infantry, so they just resort to endless onslaught of attack upon attack that keep getting repelled or won for a bit and at extreme cost, or just bombing each other with missiles and larger drones. Small FPV drones are lethal, as bad as the machine gun and gas attacks were in WW1.
Not sure what the 'panzer' equivalent will be in the future, which will overcome all that and start a new 'blitzkrieg', but it scares me.

Drone warfare is the new Sniper of the battlefield.

 

[Sooty22]

https://www.engine-specs.net/honda-small-engines Useful reference site? Honda made/have made previously an amazing number of different small engines and over a hundred variants. I tried to use a spreadsheet to see if there was any obvious parts crossovers. There probably is, but I couldn't see it.

The trick is to keep periodically running them, and have lots of spare filters and oil. Once serviced, 2nd hand should be ok. I don't know anything about these portable power supplies but think there is a lot to be said for them.

Unfortunately generators of all types, large and small, are of great interest to criminals. Like the calls of deer and owls, they can recognise the sound of one from a distance, and tuck this knowledge away for the future. Being inquisitive types, they also like going exploring and noting potential future foraging spots. Favourite foraging areas are remote places like farms and country housing, who are used to being resilient, preferably with easy access to the rear.
Then, when market demand or a potential relocation arises, they go foraging.

Exactly the sort of areas where it is reported that in major incident priorities, the Govt have already mapped out as being harder to restore and low population density.

Gennies are superb. If you get something that looks in good nick externally, is a decent make (Honda, Hyundai etc), test it and it runs fine, then it will start again no bother when you need it. To test it, if it's a 2kW gennie, take a 2kW kettle and do a couple of boils; a kettle uses exactly what it says on the label without surge currents on startup, so it's pretty safe to try.

I have a Stanley 2kW suitcase one, it was half the price of a Honda at the time I got it in 2016, not a fancy brand and have seriously abused it. Done several oil changes and run it for probably well over 200h, some of them with cement mixers or charging battery banks at 2kW draw. But it starts quickly and always runs great. Make sure you always do the oil changes at the correct interval. If you will be storing it for a long time, drain it of fuel, then run it till it cuts off from lack of fuel. Remove the sparkplug and crank it a few times with a teaspoon of oil in the cylinder, then replace the plug. And keep your petrol in a jerry can in good condition and with 'fuel preservative' in it, which will keep it fine for 5 years no bother.

 

[HorseGuy]

Drone warfare is the new Sniper of the battlefield.

Drones appear to be far more accurate and deadly than a sniper. Once they have you in their sights the chances of escape seems to be vanishingly small. I don't like watching footage of soldiers dying but I have seen a few of those drone videos in the news where it chases people around for a few seconds before finally zooming in for the kill.

I couldn't help wonder how effective a kids one-handed rounders bat would be against these small drones? The short 18" rounders bats are small and light enough to be fast and nimble. It probably wouldn't work but you might get one last chance for a lucky close quarters swing when the drone comes in for that final kill shot.

 

[GeraldTheBonsai]

Back in 2017, the Future Of Life Institute release a short spoof video called Slaughterbots. It suggested that, in the future, you could have swarms of small drones that used facial recognition to hunt down people. The drones were fitted with small amounts of explosives and blew up when close to the target. At the time, it was just sci-fi.....

Its on YouTube somewhere.

found it -

 

[Falstaff]

Sure it's been done by now, Ukraine are suggesting it has, and released a video purporting to show it killing. But this might be propaganda to put the wind up the Russians.

 

[Woody girl]

Oh ,but if you go and buy a rounders bat nowadays, you get arrested by a cop jumping on your back and radioing for back up, then you get arrested by six burley law ossifers, for carrying an offensive weapon, after taking about twenty steps out in to the street, even if its still in its packaging, and you keep telling the aforementioned terrified people that you are off to play in the park with your mates.

 

[TeeDee]

Drones appear to be far more accurate and deadly than a sniper. Once they have you in their sights the chances of escape seems to be vanishingly small. I don't like watching footage of soldiers dying but I have seen a few of those drone videos in the news where it chases people around for a few seconds before finally zooming in for the kill.

I couldn't help wonder how effective a kids one-handed rounders bat would be against these small drones? The short 18" rounders bats are small and light enough to be fast and nimble. It probably wouldn't work but you might get one last chance for a lucky close quarters swing when the drone comes in for that final kill shot.

I wasn't talking in terms of lethality. Although there are similarities.

More in terms of area denial over a large area , creating a sense of systemic fear knowing that they are deployed , for relatively small investment of manpower ,( sniper and spotter ) and drone ( seemingly cheap as micro chips ) , and also as an intelligence asset capable of ISR.


Rounders bat ?!??
Er... No...

Trying to play swingball with high speed fpov C4 isn't going to end well.
But I'm happy to watch it if you want to give it the best of British.

 

[Woody girl]

I wasn't talking in terms of lethality. Although there are similarities.

More in terms of area denial over a large area , creating a sense of systemic fear knowing that they are deployed , for relatively small investment of manpower ,( sniper and spotter ) and drone ( seemingly cheap as micro chips ) , and also as an intelligence asset capable of ISR.


Rounders bat ?!??
Er... No...

Trying to play swingball with high speed fpov C4 isn't going to end well.
But I'm happy to watch it if you want to give it the best of British.

A pea shooter might be a better long range counter measure!

 

[HorseGuy]

I wasn't talking in terms of lethality. Although there are similarities.

More in terms of area denial over a large area , creating a sense of systemic fear knowing that they are deployed , for relatively small investment of manpower ,( sniper and spotter ) and drone ( seemingly cheap as micro chips ) , and also as an intelligence asset capable of ISR.

Yeah that makes sense.

Trying to play swingball with high speed fpov C4 isn't going to end well.
But I'm happy to watch it if you want to give it the best of British.

Oh come on old boy that just ain't cricket.

 

[Chris]

Rounders bat ?!??
Er... No...

Trying to play swingball with high speed fpov C4 isn't going to end well.
But I'm happy to watch it if you want to give it the best of British.

Indeed. It’s worth noting that the FPV drones often have a contact trigger which crudely is two pieces of wire which touch when it hits something, completing a circuit and detonating the payload.

Hitting it with a bat would still set off a charge within arm’s distance, which is plenty close enough to turn one into mist. The drones often don’t directly hit the person they are aiming for but detonate on the ground or objects next to the person they’re targeting and the area of effect is similar to a grenade in that anyone within a few metres of it is going to be killed. The humble shotgun has made a comeback on the battlefield for counter-drone purposes.

 

[HorseGuy]

Indeed. It’s worth noting that the FPV drones often have a contact trigger which crudely is two pieces of wire which touch when it hits something, completing a circuit and detonating the payload.

Hitting it with a bat would still set off a charge within arm’s distance, which is plenty close enough to turn one into mist. The drones often don’t directly hit the person they are aiming for but detonate on the ground or objects next to the person they’re targeting and the area of effect is similar to a grenade in that anyone within a few metres of it is going to be killed. The humble shotgun has made a comeback on the battlefield for counter-drone purposes.

I did wonder about that but had no idea how stable C4 or whatever explosive they use would be under impact from a bat. It was a silly idea but you never know.

I could see how a shotgun could be quite effective against small FPV drones though.

 

[TeeDee]

I don't think any of the footage I've seen ( it's come up on feeds and I'll admit I'm moderately interested as its a new form of warfare ,) would suggest a shotgun or anything else ( small scale , portable , inexpensive )!would be overly effective.

Mostly the attacks seem to be at great speed , manoeuvrability targeting individual soldiers or light vehicles armed with just their primary weapons - assault rifles , not shotguns.

Even if armed with a shotgun one would I think be facing a challenge..

What it has shown is how a new innovation is being applied at relatively low cost to be effective ( leaving politics out of it ) , I can't think of another theatre of war where drones have been used in such numbers.

But I suspect we will consider this to be the start of it's usage.

Although a terrible movie ( but watchable.. ) there is a scene in ' Angel has fallen ' where a collective hivemind swarm of drones target the president.
I wouldn't be surprised if someone at DARPA is thinking upon all things drone warfare, A.i
and singular swarm thinking.

Think how terrifying/effective (!depending what end your on ) dozens of drones controlled by A.I ( lightening fast speed ) acting as one would be.


[ My , this tin foil hat is getting toasty... ]
.

 

[Sooty22]

Back in 2017, the Future Of Life Institute release a short spoof video called Slaughterbots. It suggested that, in the future, you could have swarms of small drones that used facial recognition to hunt down people. The drones were fitted with small amounts of explosives and blew up when close to the target. At the time, it was just sci-fi.....

Its on YouTube somewhere.

found it -

I did wonder about that but had no idea how stable C4 or whatever explosive they use would be under impact from a bat. It was a silly idea but you never know.

I could see how a shotgun could be quite effective against small FPV drones though.

C4 is actually very stable. So stable in fact that you cannot make it go off without a detonator, and it just burns harmlessly if you set it on fire, albeit with some very noxious fumes.

A shotgun is as effective as the person who uses it. I bet a good shooter with the right shot size would take out a good number of FPV drones, with a single drone not standing a chance, assuming they had a good capacity mag and could reload fast enough.

 

[GeraldTheBonsai]

A shotgun is as effective as the person who uses it. I bet a good shooter with the right shot size would take out a good number of FPV drones, with a single drone not standing a chance, assuming they had a good capacity mag and could reload fast enough.

I have my doubts that a shotgun would take out a fast FPV drone unless you were a very good shot with good reflexes. A small drone can hit around 80mph. If it was coming straight at you, you've got a couple of seconds to notice it, prep, aim and take it out. Obviously, if you knew there were drones about, that would help. Above a couple of hundred feet, you can barely hear them. If it was to dive at you, again, you only have less than a couple of seconds to acquire and engage.

 

[Chris]

I don't think any of the footage I've seen ( it's come up on feeds and I'll admit I'm moderately interested as its a new form of warfare ,) would suggest a shotgun or anything else ( small scale , portable , inexpensive )!would be overly effective.

Mostly the attacks seem to be at great speed , manoeuvrability targeting individual soldiers or light vehicles armed with just their primary weapons - assault rifles , not shotguns.

Even if armed with a shotgun one would I think be facing a challenge..

What it has shown is how a new innovation is being applied at relatively low cost to be effective ( leaving politics out of it ) , I can't think of another theatre of war where drones have been used in such numbers.

But I suspect we will consider this to be the start of it's usage.

Although a terrible movie ( but watchable.. ) there is a scene in ' Angel has fallen ' where a collective hivemind swarm of drones target the president.
I wouldn't be surprised if someone at DARPA is thinking upon all things drone warfare, A.i
and singular swarm thinking.

Think how terrifying/effective (!depending what end your on ) dozens of drones controlled by A.I ( lightening fast speed ) acting as one would be.


[ My , this tin foil hat is getting toasty... ]
.

They’ve proved relatively effective thus far, compared with other tools readily available.

Ukraine’s Shotgun Doctrine: A Blueprint for the FPV Battlefield – Defense Tech for Ukraine

The philosophy of Ukraine’s shotgun deployment as a counter method against FPV drones. An analysis of what works, what does not, and future tactical

defensetechforukraine.org

As with everything in war, the best approach is a layered system of which a shotgun is just one tool.

Edit: there are quite a few YT videos of both sides using shotguns effectively against drones on the battlefield if it is of interest.

 

[HorseGuy]

I wouldn't be surprised if someone at DARPA is thinking upon all things drone warfare, A.i
and singular swarm thinking.

Think how terrifying/effective (!depending what end your on ) dozens of drones controlled by A.I ( lightening fast speed ) acting as one would be.


[ My , this tin foil hat is getting toasty... ]

We know the technology to make drones already exists.
We know the technology to make advanced AI control of drones already exists.

So it's not a giant leap that the technology which could allow the necessary 'hive-mind' style of communication between AI's is already being developed. Even if we haven't seen it used on the battlefield yet it's likely it probably it exists in some developmental form or other in military labs around the world already. It's such an obvious next logical step the military industrial complex must surely be working on it already.

 

[GeraldTheBonsai]

So it's not a giant leap that the technology which could allow the necessary 'hive-mind' style of communication between AI's is already being developed. Even if we haven't seen it used on the battlefield yet it's likely it probably it exists in some developmental form or other in military labs around the world already. It's such an obvious next logical step the military industrial complex must surely be working on it already.

Been done and demonstrated. ETH Zurich. Was called SwarmMind. Used NFC to communicate between a group of drones that passed data to each other - when one crashed into the environment, the others knew about it and learnt to avoid the obstacle. The principle is called decentralised learning and execution.
Also shield.ai hivemind ai enabled drones.

 

[GreyCat]

Maybe there should be incentives to get folks to take up clay pigeon shooting. As that is perhaps the only thing anywhere useful......

GC