National Risk Register/National Resilience Update - Nothing new to us.

[HorseGuy]

If it went in for years there would be soooooooo many talks at your local community hall on how to work around it.

Little businesses would spring up maybe making shoes out of old tyres (as in the poorer African countries.)

Lamps from bottles, shed illuminators made out of plastic drinks bottles etc etc.

When you have to, you usually can.

Indeed! I don't doubt that for a second. When push comes to shove never underestimate the power and ingenuity of the human spirit and what some people are capable of when required.

Still, given a choice between having a pair of rough, handmade shoes constructed from pieces of car tyre and old fabric sewn together or having a spare pair of brand new waterproof Altberg boots I know which option I would prefer.

 

[GeraldTheBonsai]

If it went in for years there would be soooooooo many talks at your local community hall on how to work around it.

Little businesses would spring up maybe making shoes out of old tyres (as in the poorer African countries.)

Lamps from bottles, shed illuminators made out of plastic drinks bottles etc etc.

When you have to, you usually can.

True. But.
How many people today have the knowledge to build / make the most basic of things, let alone the tools to do it?

 

[Pattree]

True. But.
How many people today have the knowledge to build / make the most basic of things, let alone the tools to do it?

Nearly all of us. We’d share tools, knowledge and stuff. It’s happened in the lifetime of many of us here.

 

[ONE]

True. But.
How many people today have the knowledge to build / make the most basic of things, let alone the tools to do it?

A surprisingly large number. If you think more along the lines of a reversion to early industrialisation, rather than going all the way back to being hunter gatherers, a lot of the skills & technologies are still out there.

 

[GeraldTheBonsai]

I would argue that you are looking at this scenario from the perspective of someone who is able to manage these challenges, such as someone who is familiar with bushcraft, prepping, DIY or general real world problem solving. My suspicion is that the vast majority of the urban population wouldn't have a clue what to do in the event of even a minor outage of some sort, let alone a prolonged outage.

Consider how many people in big cities are totally dependant on our Just In Time logistics networks.

 

[Pattree]

I believe that you are seriously underestimating peoples abilities to overcome.

In there of a major system failure we wouldn’t go back to some sort of amiss Marple era. We would ALL be Modern people with modern understanding of what is possible.

Those who understand the fundamentals of communications and information handling would be every bit as useful as gardeners and carpenters.

Have you ever flown over Brum in daylight and seen all those houses stretching into the distance? Do you really think that a Bushcrafters knowledge would be more useful in that environment that the collected brains of those people? Multiply the houses by an average of four - that’s a LOT of brains. They also have large scale organisational skills. In fact that is probably the most dangerous aspect: The development of gang/tribal cultures. It happened during the blitz in London.

A big knife and a hammock are not the solution to a societal breakdown.
There simply aren’t enough trees to swing from.

 

[HorseGuy]

My suspicion is that the vast majority of the urban population wouldn't have a clue what to do in the event of even a minor outage of some sort, let alone a prolonged outage.

I believe that you are seriously underestimating peoples abilities to overcome.

Despite being polar opposite I think there's some truth to both of these comments and the reality would lie somewhere inbetween these two extremes.

My guess is that if there were prolonged power outages and shortages of essential products and services a huge portion of the population would be totally lost and would struggle to adapt even with help and instruction from other people. These people could easily find themselves in considerable and even potentially life threatening trouble as a result of their inability for self-survival. However I do also think that there would also be a sufficiently large enough portion of the population who would know how to cope or would at least be quick enough to learn from others and adapt to a basic skill level so that they would be more or less be alright.

 

[GeraldTheBonsai]

Unfortunately I have a somewhat jaundiced view of people in general and the masses in particular. However, let's agree to differ.

What i do think will happen is that those among us who have these skills and knowledge will very rapidly be in demand.

 

[ONE]

will very rapidly be in demand.

Yes. And I'm not sure that's a good thing!

 

[slowworm]

What i do think will happen is that those among us who have these skills and knowledge will very rapidly be in demand.

Tethered to someone who lost their sight looking at the meteor shower?

 

[Falstaff]

Cannot remember where, but came across a pair of those truck tyre sandals and they were bloody good, and comfortable.
Wish I could remember where, it was probably either Nepal or Barbados, but I might be completely wrong.

 

[Woody girl]

Cannot remember where, but came across a pair of those truck tyre sandals and they were bloody good, and comfortable.
Wish I could remember where, it was probably either Nepal or Barbados, but I might be completely wrong.

How good are they in the snow?

 

[TLM]

How good are they in the snow?

Well, one uses winter tires for a start ...

But they would still be quite bad, frozen toes you know ...

 

[Woody girl]

Gatwick presently without water after power cut at water treatment plant. It can happen anywhere any time. Store some water!

 

[Nice65]

Picked this out of an email from a friend who’s running NEB showings in her area. There’s serious opposition to companies and the government making people aware.

“There is a serious question… about why the public hasn’t been made aware of this assessment,”he said.

https://www.farminguk.com/news/uk-food-supply-at-risk-of-catastrophic-failure-by-2030-report-warns_68225.html?link_id=2&can_id=9f4208928aed069745d71af625613e8c&source=email-an-invitation-to-preview

 

[GreyCat]

True. But.
How many people today have the knowledge to build / make the most basic of things, let alone the tools to do it?

Some would- probably a higher proportion in older generations who grew up without electronic everything and with practical classes in school.

Tools: how many people can use hand tools (i.e. tools that do not need electricity to operate), even tradespeople? Can they sharpen their hand saws or chisels or do they just use cheap disposables? Do they have sharpening kit? Can they replace the motor on their electric drill (and do they have a spare motor to hand)? If supply chains become patchy and electricity is periodic, then those sort of considerations matter.

At a basic level we are already seeing this with some types of new electric cars being out of use for 6 months if a part fails, because the parts take that long to arrive. Whereas an older car type with a good supply chain may be easier to fix and parts are available. How many people (outside of this forum) consider spare parts availability when buying a car?

There has been an increase in craft activities such as making clothes and using sewing machines which is welcome, but a lot of modern crafts are quite "instant result" level, make something in a day. There would be a steep learning curve!

There's also the proportion of the population who live by their phone, do everything on it and order in food. Live one day to the next without really thinking. Totally reliant on the modern life infrastructure.

Allotments: they would quickly become a target for theft of food. Already is an issue in some places.

Despite being polar opposite I think there's some truth to both of these comments and the reality would lie somewhere inbetween these two extremes.

My guess is that if there were prolonged power outages and shortages of essential products and services a huge portion of the population would be totally lost and would struggle to adapt even with help and instruction from other people. These people could easily find themselves in considerable and even potentially life threatening trouble as a result of their inability for self-survival. However I do also think that there would also be a sufficiently large enough portion of the population who would know how to cope or would at least be quick enough to learn from others and adapt to a basic skill level so that they would be more or less be alright.

I think this is about right.

GC

 

[HorseGuy]

Tools: how many people can use hand tools (i.e. tools that do not need electricity to operate), even tradespeople? Can they sharpen their hand saws or chisels or do they just use cheap disposables? Do they have sharpening kit? Can they replace the motor on their electric drill (and do they have a spare motor to hand)? If supply chains become patchy and electricity is periodic, then those sort of considerations matter.

We have plenty of battery and mains powered tools for obvious reasons of convenience (actually it's my girlfriend who owns most of the power tools ). I also have hand powered versions of all of the important tools. For example I have an old fashioned hand drill with a hand crank handle you turn to spin the drill. It's a proper 1970's one because they have a solid, good quality cast construction unlike cheaply made modern hand drills which are manufactured from pieces of pressed sheet metal and feel like they would fall apart after five minutes of hard use.

I also have a range of Silky hand saws. These can't be sharpened by hand but the blades seem to last almost forever. I also have a spare replacement blade for each one just in case one day they do ever wear out or get broken.

At a basic level we are already seeing this with some types of new electric cars being out of use for 6 months if a part fails, because the parts take that long to arrive. Whereas an older car type with a good supply chain may be easier to fix and parts are available. How many people (outside of this forum) consider spare parts availability when buying a car?

I always consider how easy a car is to repair and the availability of spare parts for it. I would not want to own a car which is not common and easy to work on. At the moment I'm considering buying a Mazda MX5 (yeah yeah hairdressers car I know ) because they're so reliable and there are loads of them around so parts are plentiful. Mechanics love them too because they're very simple and straight forward to work on. This even applies to the newest current generation which is a rarity for modern cars which mostly tend to be overly complex and a pig to work on.

Another thing which I have done this year for the first time is pre-buy all of the fluids and spare parts needed to service my car. It isn't actually due for a service for a while but I have a feeling that in a few months time when it is due there's a risk the price of the parts and oil might be much higher. Even if I'm wrong and the prices stay the same there's no harm done by buying them all a few months early. I would only have to buy them sooner or later anyway and this way I don't need to worry about a future risk of availability issues or price rises caused by war in the Middle East.

 

[Woody girl]

Well, on friday I found a pattern for a nightdress and pj's. I also found some nice cotton material both from the charity shop. I shall be sewing my own nightwear(albeit a bit shorter than the patter states) from now on. I'd had a lift into tesco in town the other day. The price and quality of materials was abysmal. £22for just a pair of pj's bottoms, and £16 for a matching top. That's £38 for cheap shoddy nightwear.
Not a chance!
Sewing, darning and patching skills should be something we teach our youngsters right now. Never too young. I was taught to sew a button on by age 4. By the time I was old enough for brownies age 6 or 7, I aced the sewing on a button test, and could make a plaited cord, knit a scarf and make a cotton duster by hemming a square of material. I made my own drawstring bag for my pumps and sports kit aged 5.. all hand sewn. I'm not a good sewer by any standards, but I can hold my own on a simple pattern. I don't know many parents who teach their kids these basic skills any more. If you have little ones or grandkids, get teaching!
I also made a small simple table aged 7 in school basic woodwork class, to hold my dolls tea parties on. Very proud of it at the time.kids can handle simple tools quite a lot younger than we give them credit for.

 

[GeraldTheBonsai]

After following this thread, I've started (re)watching Survivors - the series from the 70's. It's complete on the internet archive site.

 

[HorseGuy]

Well, on friday I found a pattern for a nightdress and pj's. I also found some nice cotton material both from the charity shop. I shall be sewing my own nightwear(albeit a bit shorter than the patter states) from now on. I'd had a lift into tesco in town the other day. The price and quality of materials was abysmal. £22for just a pair of pj's bottoms, and £16 for a matching top. That's £38 for cheap shoddy nightwear.
Not a chance!
Sewing, darning and patching skills should be something we teach our youngsters right now. Never too young. I was taught to sew a button on by age 4. By the time I was old enough for brownies age 6 or 7, I aced the sewing on a button test, and could make a plaited cord, knit a scarf and make a cotton duster by hemming a square of material. I made my own drawstring bag for my pumps and sports kit aged 5.. all hand sewn. I'm not a good sewer by any standards, but I can hold my own on a simple pattern. I don't know many parents who teach their kids these basic skills any more. If you have little ones or grandkids, get teaching!
I also made a small simple table aged 7 in school basic woodwork class, to hold my dolls tea parties on. Very proud of it at the time.kids can handle simple tools quite a lot younger than we give them credit for.

I think they should teach basic 'life skills' as a specific subject at school. Nothing complicated just a few simple things like being able to sew on a button or how to repair a rip in clothes. Other useful things which could be included are basic odd jobs like how to change a light bulb, rewire a plug, descale a kettle, replace the washer on a dripping tap and of course, how to tie a few basic knots. You know the type of things I mean. That would certainly be far more useful than some of the nonsense they seem to teach kids at school these days.