Winter Moot 2020 - 17 - 23rd Feb

[Nomad64]

Just curious, has anyone had the idea of making a map of the problem areas? A somewhat revolutionary idea, I know, but it might even be helpful.

It can actually be slightly automated, if water height at one point in a valley is known on a digital topographic map it can fairly easily be "spread" with the same height. Does not solve all the problems but some.

If you really were that curious and taken the trouble to click on the third link on my earlier post you would have seen that the good folks at NRW have provided various tools including very detailed real time mapping of flooded areas and river levels.

https://naturalresources.wales/flooding/check-flood-warnings/?lang=en

I’m sure someone from Scandinavia could probably do a far better job (heavens you guys seem to have more than enough time on your hands) but that’s what we knuckle-draggers are working with for now!

Apologies if the above sounds snappy I have spent most of the morning getting cold and wet dealing with fallen trees, soggy livestock and ensuring that the runoff from the fields above us passes safely round (rather than through) my house. I then did the rounds checking for storm damage and blocked culverts for elderly and absent neighbours.

It’s pretty grim around here but having seen how much worse things were in South Wales, I naively thought that it might be worth flagging up to those headed to the Moot that this is now regarded as a major incident by the emergency services and the current advice is not to travel. I wasn’t expecting floods of gratitude (can you see what I did there!), but I’m not currently in the mood for inane smart-@rse comments from someone who should probably be paying close attention to the current warnings and/or pointless advice from a thousand miles away.

The sun has put in a fleeting appearance and hopefully things will start easing up downstream but a lot of people in the area are going to have a miserable next few weeks drying out and repairing homes, schools and businesses.

FWIW, the forecast is for further heavy rain on Thursday which will be falling on already saturated ground.

I hope those travelling to the Moot arrive and get home safely and have a great time.

Edit: to add correct NRW link and screenshot of flood warnings in place for Merthyr Mawr at 16.00 on 16 Feb

 

[Woody girl]

That sounds pretty grim.
Yes there are serious problems all over the country. Despite amber warning we have got off fairly lightly here. Though there is flooding down the road and the river is still rising with the run off from the high ground on the moors. More rain and snow predicted for the next few days.
Hope things straighten out for you Nomad 64 And good on you for checking on the neighbours when you have so much to do yourself.

Sorry wrong name! Duh me sorry.
Nomad 64. Have edited to the right name.

 

[tim_n]

It's not a moan. We're using the same sources. Nothing seems to be flagged for the bit we need access to at the moment. The site is very sandy so water isn't usually much of an issue. I'm more worried that the bridges will be shut which will cause significant problems down the M4 as one bridge is already shut.

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[Broch]

Mmm...

This was Merthyr Mawr this afternoon

 

[tim_n]

Looks fine for kayaks! Sadly not bringing mine and have four of us.

But that helps immensely in planning. Can you keep us updated as to whether it's still that damp?

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[SurvivORR Bushcraft]

Everyone needs to just be responsible for themselves! If it is like today, then we turn around and rethink! I’m selfishly hoping the water recedes but we all have to be prepared for the worse! If we can do anything to help the local community whilst we are there I will be more than happy to lend a hand


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[tim_n]

View is it's receeding and will be gone by tomorrow. Keep an eye on the Facebook bushmoot page and Tony et al will let us know if there's an issue.

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[TLM]

Apologies if the above sounds snappy I have spent most of the morning getting cold and wet dealing with fallen trees, soggy livestock and ensuring that the runoff from the fields above us passes safely round (rather than through) my house. I then did the rounds checking for storm damage and blocked culverts for elderly and absent neighbours.

In that situation one does have a right to be snappy.

I did look at the maps and found them somewhat confusing and fairly hard to use without a mouse or touchpad. Worked somewhat better on a laptop. On some maps the warning signs do not scale meaning they do cover any usefull info underneath. I coul not find a real time flood map based on the real time water height measurements. I could not find real time road closures or flooding.

If I were driving around and could only use phone or tablet life would not be easy.

Our floods are apparently different from yours, large floodplanes and water covering tens to hundreds of sqkm. Smaller ones do exist but usually no fast flows.

OK, try to stay afloat.

 

[tim_n]

Estate says the water is receeding, the road is open and they're doing a walk round to check the trees so nothing to worry about. Update will be at about 8am.

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[Nomad64]

That sounds pretty grim.
Yes there are serious problems all over the country. Despite amber warning we have got off fairly lightly here. Though there is flooding down the road and the river is still rising with the run off from the high ground on the moors. More rain and snow predicted for the next few days.
Hope things straighten out for you Nice 65. And good on you for checking on the neighbours when you have so much to do yourself.

I assume you were referring to Grumpy64 rather than Nice65 (what a difference a year makes! ).

Not meaning to go full Cap’n Quint but currently it’s a bit difficult to square people getting excited about their holiday in an area where homes, schools, livelihoods are getting trashed. Hopefully things will look better in the morning.

TBH, we have had it easy - we are nearly 1000’ above the Wye Valley and once the water has gone through our yard, it heads down off to add to other peoples woes. It is normally not a problem but a slightly blocked culvert and completely saturated aquifers means that springs are erupting everywhere and the flow is a bit closer to the house than normal.

All easing off for us now but there have been a succession of record high waters at various points along the Wye today which have caused flooding in towns and villages further down the valley but the geography of the S Wales valleys makes things much worse there.

Edit: For anyone heading to the Moot from the north - this is what the A470 the main N-S route looked like earlier today at Builth Wells near the Royal Welsh Showground.

 

[John Fenna]

Hmmm - I will be leaving home about 9am - if the report at 8am is good!
I am not on facebook so hope that someone posts here!

 

[tim_n]

I'll try to remember Mr Fenna!

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[Tony]

Road is open, water all cleared so all good.
The little bridge before you turn into the estate is blocked off but the main routes in from Bridgend side are all good

 

[tim_n]

Cheers Tony!

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[Bishop]

Kicking off from Llanelli at 10am, blue sky and sunshine

 

[Diamond Dave]

Have fun everyone ...

 

[Woody girl]

Your all mad as a box of frogs. !
I hope you all enjoy yourselves. Stay safe and... I was going to say warm and dry.... but I doubt it!

 

[Hammock_man]

If anyone is interested, Kim and I made it home tried but safe. Her ear is still very painful but she now has access to high strength pain killers. Sorry we did not get to say farewell to every one .........anyway roll on summer Moot.

 

[Bishop]

Your all mad as a box of frogs. !

Winter Moot advanced fire lighting class

 

[Woody girl]

Winter Moot advanced fire lighting class
View attachment 57374

I am jealous because I couldn't come
I'm sure you all had a great time and the weather would certainly have tested your skills. Even if I'd have booked is would never have made it to the train station let alone the moot itself as the buses to the train station were not running.
Must admit to preferring it to be relatively warm and dry when out camping as I don't do well in damp conditions nowadays.
Let's see all your photos then guys so we wimpy stay in the warm and dry fair weather bushcrafters can drool.