The Covid19 Thread

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SaraR

Full Member
Mar 25, 2017
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Ceredigion
I have to admit that I have had no problems getting deliveries. So, it might be area specific ? The pharmacy delivers too. I didn't sign up for milk delivery but there are now three services in this area. All dairy, eggs, and root veg.
It's been really difficult for us and others here to get deliveries or click&collect, especially in the beginning, but I see the various vans whizzing past most days so they're clearly very busy. We've managed to get 4 slots so far in total. Luckily for us, we had a well stocked cupboard and a butcher ca 10 miles away do frequent deliveries and sell flour, bread and root veg too. Life got a lot easier once we found out about them, as we can get some food reliably.
 

C_Claycomb

Moderator staff
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Oct 6, 2003
7,395
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I’m just not seeing the large numbers for real. Just inflated ones. I’m not buying the hype.
How do you know they are inflated? Why would they be inflated? Everywhere else in the world the governments have tended to count cases in ways that make the numbers appear lower than they must be in fact. Did Sundog's case get recorded? I know the people I know who have had the full suite of symptoms were not counted as they were not tested and didn't go to hospital. It was only after they passed the first peak here in England that fuller numbers came out, and they were higher than what was described as we were going through the peak.

Of course, I guess all those conclusions depend on believing SOME news. My dad has watched bits of news from the US, watched full speeches by various public figures, then seen the networks crop the clips down, present them out of context and edited in a way calculated to inflame opinion, so I suppose it isn't unreasonable to be skeptical of the news in the US. I feel very sorry for you with such poor quality reporting.

Maybe you should look at non-US news services? They are much less interested in your local politics one way or the other and don't care so much about US opinion.

Where I live I haven't seen lots of sick people with my own eyes. I think that very few people will have done. I don't see a lot of people that I can identify as having flu in normal years. How would you see them?
 

Corso

Full Member
Aug 13, 2007
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none
No idea how it works in the US but we only have to look at our own data to know reporting is complex - The ONS say it themselves in their reporting but noone seems to have run with it.

Yes there are diagnosed deaths where Covid is the only fatal condition but it takes a Dr's tick in a death certificate to put them in the dies of covid catagory when often it should have just been they died of X but we got a postive result of covid at the time too. I've seen it first hand.

There is a big difference between dying of something and dying with something but when the death certificate has 2-4 different fatal conditions registered that person satistically dies 4 times when it comes to analytics.

Last year my grandfather died at 99 years old of 6 different fatal conditions as far at the ONS are concerned, I'm reliable informed it was only once and it was of old age, he was damned he was geting THAT birthday card, she doesn't even sign it any more...
 
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santaman2000

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jan 15, 2011
16,909
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Florida
Then you need to shop at more consistent shops, stick to what you know, and look with your eyes not your hands.
It's pretty easy but some people simply won't think of anyone else. But I sincerely hope you get the best onion lol
It’s not the shops that change. It’s the brand names themselves. I have to use mt hands to pick the item up to thread the small print on the labels (the ingredients list) My daughter’s celiac and a single bite containing as little as 20 ppm can leave her debilitated for days and even after she recovers the damage to her intestines is permanent.

Fresh fruit and produce is a necessity and has to be felt to check properly. That will never change.
 
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santaman2000

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jan 15, 2011
16,909
1,114
67
Florida
How do you know they are inflated? Why would they be inflated? Everywhere else in the world the governments have tended to count cases in ways that make the numbers appear lower than they must be in fact. Did Sundog's case get recorded? I know the people I know who have had the full suite of symptoms were not counted as they were not tested and didn't go to hospital. It was only after they passed the first peak here in England that fuller numbers came out, and they were higher than what was described as we were going through the peak.

Of course, I guess all those conclusions depend on believing SOME news. My dad has watched bits of news from the US, watched full speeches by various public figures, then seen the networks crop the clips down, present them out of context and edited in a way calculated to inflame opinion, so I suppose it isn't unreasonable to be skeptical of the news in the US. I feel very sorry for you with such poor quality reporting.

Maybe you should look at non-US news services? ?.......
How do I know? I thought I made it clear that I don’t KNOW.” Rather that I don’t buy it. Why not? Well as I said further upthread the very reporting criteria is suspect. Anyone being admitted to a hospital is tested. If they test positive and die they’re death is generally reported as a “Covid death” even though they were admitted with something else. (I just don’t buy it when gastric torsion gets listed as a “Covid death.” Also as I stated upthread the hospitals have a financial incentive to up their Covid count as most federal resources are being allotted to the areas and institutions with the highest count.

regarding non US news sources, I have done and still do watch and/or read others (generally the ones most readily available here are BBC and The Guardian) Neither impresses me as being unbiased or having particularly “quality” reporting.
 

santaman2000

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jan 15, 2011
16,909
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Florida
There's an easy way to check.

Somewhere there will be month by month statistics for deaths in an area.
Find them and compare the figures for the last three years, do an average, with this year.

There is nothing else just now that will cause any huge variation in those figure apart from Covid-19.

The R number, the number of other people that an infected person can infect, is the fair way of seeing whether the numbers are on the increase or not.
Asymptomatic infected people are a huge issue with this disease.

M
I suppose that depends on how you define Covid deaths. Even without people actually dying directly from the irus deaths are going up because of it. Suicides are up due to restrictions, job loss, and related depression. Likewise with families trapped at home domestic violence has seen a significant uptick.
 

santaman2000

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jan 15, 2011
16,909
1,114
67
Florida
No idea how it works in the US but we only have to look at our own data to know reporting is complex - The ONS say it themselves in their reporting but noone seems to have run with it.

Yes there are diagnosed deaths where Covid is the only fatal condition but it takes a Dr's tick in a death certificate to put them in the dies of covid catagory when often it should have just been they died of X but we got a postive result of covid at the time too. I've seen it first hand.

There is a big difference between dying of something and dying with something but when the death certificate has 2-4 different fatal conditions registered that person satistically dies 4 times when it comes to analytics.

Last year my grandfather died at 99 years old of 6 different fatal conditions as far at the ONS are concerned, I'm reliable informed it was only once and it was of old age, he was damned he was geting THAT birthday card, she doesn't even sign it any more...
^^^^^^^This!^^^^^^
 

Toddy

Mod
Mod
Jan 21, 2005
38,990
4,639
S. Lanarkshire
You have significant numbers of suicides and domestic 'murders' ? significant compared to the numbers of deaths by Covid-19 ?
A quick look online finds that suicides and murders are recorded as such and apparantly account for hundreds in the USA, rather than the thousands dying of the disease.
I'm not familiar with your local Registrars, so I don't know where to look for your immediate locality's figures. I know that where I live our figures are very low both for infection and deaths, but less than ten miles away, both north and south of us, it's a different story.

Anyway, this is the kind of news we see about the USA's pandemic.


 

santaman2000

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jan 15, 2011
16,909
1,114
67
Florida
You have significant numbers of suicides and domestic 'murders' ? significant compared to the numbers of deaths by Covid-19 ?
A quick look online finds that suicides and murders are recorded as such and apparantly account for hundreds in the USA, rather than the thousands dying of the disease.
I'm not familiar with your local Registrars, so I don't know where to look for your immediate locality's figures. I know that where I live our figures are very low both for infection and deaths, but less than ten miles away, both north and south of us, it's a different story.

Anyway, this is the kind of news we see about the USA's pandemic.


I think you misunderstood what I meant. No, suicides aren’t being recorded as Covid deaths. My point was about your earlier comment regarding checking total deaths now vs the last three years. The uptick in suicides will contribute to a rise. So will deaths from neglect at nursing homes now that family aren’t allowed to visit and check up on the quality of care their loved ones are getting. My comment about how broadly we define Covid deaths (meaning we here on the forum; not the official registers) was that in a roundabout way I suppose I do consider some of those to Covid related deaths. Regarding the domestic violence I haven’t read anything about it rising to fatal levels yet but just the trends of both that and the suicides are indicators that the restrictions might be as much a problem as a help.

Oh. Food for thought, the official statistical records classify BOTH suicide and murder in the same category: homicide (deliberately taking a human life—-whether it’s your own or someone else’s is irrelevant to that stat) In fact over 63% of all homicides in the US are suicide. Now do you see why I don’t buy into the hype?
 
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Toddy

Mod
Mod
Jan 21, 2005
38,990
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S. Lanarkshire
You cavilling about hundreds compared to many thousands.
I know you're not stupid, but I do think you are being wilfully blind to the realities of the numbers of coronavirus deaths.

It's not just the deaths though, it already showing a worrying rise in the number of recovered people who are going to have to live, lifelong, with side effects, like the fibrosis in their lungs.
The fewer people who catch this one, the better.

I do fully take on board that economic issues are enormous and the damage done is profound, and that the UK response has been a hodgepodge mess,
Now we're hoping that the ease of lockdown and the idiotic numbers of people brazenly gathering for illegal raves, beach parties, etc., doesn't kick start the whole sorry thing off again.

Best of luck with it all, I hope you and your family stay safe :)

M
 

Corso

Full Member
Aug 13, 2007
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It's not just the deaths though, it already showing a worrying rise in the number of recovered people who are going to have to live, lifelong, with side effects, like the fibrosis in their lungs.

It's too early to tell about long term sequelae but the few CT series (multiple repeat CT's over a long period) I have seen at work show patients lungs recovering over a period of months and that seems to be true in the early data


Temporal CT changes
Four stages on CT have been described

  • early/initial stage (0-4 days): normal CT or GGO only
    • up to half of patients have normal CT scans within two days of symptom onset
  • progressive stage (5-8 days): increased GGO and crazy paving appearance
  • peak stage (9-13 days): consolidation
  • absorption stage (>14 days): with an improvement in the disease course, "fibrous stripes" appear and the abnormalities resolve at one month and beyond
 
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Paul_B

Bushcrafter through and through
Jul 14, 2008
6,201
1,569
Cumbria
Domestic violence is wrong but it's not deaths except in the most extreme same less common cases. So unless the other issues become as deadly than COVID then it's not as much of a problem. As said, hundred to the thousands.

Let COVID run free and keep our freedoms. It'll kill off the elderly quicker than neglect. It's a balancing act. If COVID was capable of Spanish flu levels of death your economy and mental health would be worse effected by having low levels of restrictions. It's not but the principal is the same, it needs restrictions to dream with it and truce deaths.

Having said that, despite America's situation it's no Brazil. Despite Bolsonaro taking cues from America
 

Toddy

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Mod
Jan 21, 2005
38,990
4,639
S. Lanarkshire
It's too early to tell about long term sequelae but the few CT series (multiple repeat CT's over a long period) I have seen at work show patients lungs recovering over a period of months and that seems to be true in the early data


Temporal CT changes
Four stages on CT have been described

  • early/initial stage (0-4 days): normal CT or GGO only
    • up to half of patients have normal CT scans within two days of symptom onset
  • progressive stage (5-8 days): increased GGO and crazy paving appearance
  • peak stage (9-13 days): consolidation
  • absorption stage (>14 days): with an improvement in the disease course, "fibrous stripes" appear and the abnormalities resolve at one month and beyond

This is one of the articles that I read re the long term issues with fibrosis.
I know that some people do resolve, but on the whole, scar tissue is scar tissue. My son's lymph system still has dozens of tumour scars from cancer over ten years ago. Most with cover 19 will be clear of the fibrosis (not quite sure if that's the right word for this stage ? ) within six weeks, but it's becoming apparent that that's not happening with many.
 

Corso

Full Member
Aug 13, 2007
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This is one of the articles that I read re the long term issues with fibrosis.
I know that some people do resolve, but on the whole, scar tissue is scar tissue. My son's lymph system still has dozens of tumour scars from cancer over ten years ago. Most with cover 19 will be clear of the fibrosis (not quite sure if that's the right word for this stage ? ) within six weeks, but it's becoming apparent that that's not happening with many.

Its too early I don't think anything in that article is more than 'could' at the moment

We regularly see Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis which is thought to be from viral infection - its mosly harmless and often the patient lives normally.

Fibrosis is just the medical term for thickening and scarring of connective tissue it doesn't nessisarily mean the organ becomes compomised, the body is very resiliant and often compensates

With C19 there will be degrees of damage and this will vary depending on comorbidites, general health of the patient and unfortunatly treatment given, it will take a long time to realy work out whats best.

Puting somone on a ventalator was reserved for the realy worst cases and it in itself can cause long term damage under any circumstances, is this what we are being warned of now? Quite possibly

I try and steer away from Media generated articles and go look for the original papers. I've worked in Oncology long enough to know what they post up is half right at best most of the time.
 

Toddy

Mod
Mod
Jan 21, 2005
38,990
4,639
S. Lanarkshire
Generally I agree with you on media articles, but I didn't read this one as inflammatory (no pun intended :) )

I think the age demographic has a lot to do with a full recovery too.
That the fibrosis is being noted in younger people was/ is the concern and it does compromise lung function even if the body does finally compensate somewhat.
I know two people who have severe lung issues, one has IPF and the other COPD and neither has ever had any remission or improvement, though the second friend 'manages' his disease with medication and a breathing regime.
Both are pretty miserable to thole, that some might end up enduring it after catching Covid-19 is just another reason for folks to be even more careful I reckon, especially if they're already not in the best of health.

I think you're right and, "With C19 there will be degrees of damage and this will vary depending on comorbidites, general health of the patient and unfortunatly treatment given, it will take a long time to realy work out whats best."

M
 

Broch

Life Member
Jan 18, 2009
8,098
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Mid Wales
www.mont-hmg.co.uk
Just seen the shameful fighting on the beaches in Wales. Appalling.

Not just in Wales TBH; I am totally disgusted with the behaviour of a very large group of society - not just the fighting but the risk those crowds are putting on society in general and the front line professionals especially.

It makes me embarrassed to be human :(
 

Broch

Life Member
Jan 18, 2009
8,098
7,877
Mid Wales
www.mont-hmg.co.uk
Domestic violence is wrong but it's not deaths except in the most extreme same less common cases. So unless the other issues become as deadly than COVID then it's not as much of a problem. As said, hundred to the thousands.

Let COVID run free and keep our freedoms. It'll kill off the elderly quicker than neglect. It's a balancing act. If COVID was capable of Spanish flu levels of death your economy and mental health would be worse effected by having low levels of restrictions. It's not but the principal is the same, it needs restrictions to dream with it and truce deaths.

Having said that, despite America's situation it's no Brazil. Despite Bolsonaro taking cues from America

I confess, I'm having a bit of difficulty understanding your post (I appreciate that's probably me) but are you saying you think the virus is a good thing? a kind of natural geriatric genocide? Because it's not just old people that would have died of neglect that are dying is it.

I may have completely got the wrong end of the stick; if so apologies :)
 
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