The Covid19 Thread

C_Claycomb

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Broch, you are not alone. I am afraid I couldn't work out what Paul was saying either. Maybe trying to fit a lot of thoughts into a short post typed on a small device?
 

Corso

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I confess, I'm having a bit of difficulty understanding your post (I appreciate that's probably me) but are you saying you think the virus is a good thing? a kind of natural geriatric genocide? Because it's not just old people that would have died of neglect that are dying is it.

I may have completely got the wrong end of the stick; if so apologies :)

I think he's aguing for the current lockdown/social distancing policy rather than agaist it

It has bought some time and has allowed medics to find out whats the best of a bunch of care ideas but the 2nd wave is enevitable
 

MrEd

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It's too early to tell about long term sequelae but the few CT series (multiple repeat CT's over a long period) I have seen at work show patients lungs recovering over a period of months and that seems to be true in the early data


Temporal CT changes
Four stages on CT have been described

  • early/initial stage (0-4 days): normal CT or GGO only
    • up to half of patients have normal CT scans within two days of symptom onset
  • progressive stage (5-8 days): increased GGO and crazy paving appearance
  • peak stage (9-13 days): consolidation
  • absorption stage (>14 days): with an improvement in the disease course, "fibrous stripes" appear and the abnormalities resolve at one month and beyond

This is an interesting point, we are following up all our patients and doing serial cheat xrays and ct’s - seeing a good number with early fibrotic changes
 
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santaman2000

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Domestic violence is wrong but it's not deaths except in the most extreme same less common cases. So unless the other issues become as deadly than COVID then it's not as much of a problem. As said, hundred to the thousands.

Let COVID run free and keep our freedoms. It'll kill off the elderly quicker than neglect. It's a balancing act. If COVID was capable of Spanish flu levels of death your economy and mental health would be worse effected by having low levels of restrictions. It's not but the principal is the same, it needs restrictions to dream with it and truce deaths.

Having said that, despite America's situation it's no Brazil. Despite Bolsonaro taking cues from America
Ummm. These are not “LOW” levels of restrictions. And people seem to be forgetting the fact that we were told early on that so er are later near.y EVERYBODY is going to be infected. All the restrictions were supposed to be just to slow it to a rate that wouldn’t overwhelm hospitals capacity. Except for the major urban enclaves in the northeast And on the west coast they simply haven’t been overwhelmed.

The reality for the end of this is one of two scenarios:
1) Enough people get it that we develop herd immunity (this outcome is questionable but possible)
2) An effective vaccine is developed (despite al the rosy suggestions that one is possible in 6 to 8 months the reality is that vaccines normal take 6 to 20 years to develop—-we can’t wait that long to go back to living real lives)

And all tht is before we take up the question of the legality of the restrictions. The 1st Amendment specifically protects the right of the people to peaceably assemble. Quarantining the sick and infectious would likely stand up to a judicial test. Preemptive banning of assembly likely won’t. It hasn’t been tested yet as they all hoped it would be over BEFORE any suits were filed and made their way through the system. Given the likelihood that this is going to be the normal for at least the next year, possibly several years (unless the herd immunity hope pans out) that premise goes out the window.
 
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santaman2000

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This is one of the articles that I read re the long term issues with fibrosis.
I know that some people do resolve, but on the whole, scar tissue is scar tissue. My son's lymph system still has dozens of tumour scars from cancer over ten years ago. Most with cover 19 will be clear of the fibrosis (not quite sure if that's the right word for this stage ? ) within six weeks, but it's becoming apparent that that's not happening with many.
Never believe CNN (the Clinton News Network)
 

santaman2000

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I think he's aguing for the current lockdown/social distancing policy rather than agaist it

It has bought some time and has allowed medics to find out whats the best of a bunch of care ideas but the 2nd wave is enevitable
.....
That was my understanding of Paul’s post also.
 

santaman2000

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.....Now we're hoping that the ease of lockdown and the idiotic numbers of people brazenly gathering for illegal raves, beach parties, etc., doesn't kick start the whole sorry thing off again.

Best of luck with it all, I hope you and your family stay safe :)

M
I think you’re missing the point that even with restrictions the whole thing is going to kick off again. See my post regarding either immunity or vaccine. (Post 904)
 

Toddy

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Only if other folks don't adhere to either isolation or social distancing.

Our numbers of infections, hospitalisations and deaths are falling. NZ has none, our Highlands have contained it, and that's being repeated everywhere where social distancing is maintained.

I see your own state is reacting.....

"On Friday, Florida broke its own daily record for new infections, reporting 8,942 new cases. The previous record was 5,508, reported on Wednesday. The state now has a total of 122,960 recorded cases and 3,366 deaths.

Earlier, Florida's governor said there was no plan to continue reopening step-by-step. "We are where we are. I didn't say we were going to go on to the next phase," Ron DeSantis told reporters."

 

santaman2000

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Only if other folks don't adhere to either isolation or social distancing.

Our numbers of infections, hospitalisations and deaths are falling. NZ has none, our Highlands have contained it, and that's being repeated everywhere where social distancing is maintained.

I see your own state is reacting.....

"On Friday, Florida broke its own daily record for new infections, reporting 8,942 new cases. The previous record was 5,508, reported on Wednesday. The state now has a total of 122,960 recorded cases and 3,366 deaths.

Earlier, Florida's governor said there was no plan to continue reopening step-by-step. "We are where we are. I didn't say we were going to go on to the next phase," Ron DeSantis told reporters."

New Zealand is an exception. Not only are they an island nation but a small one at that. It’s relatively easy for them to shut their borders completely. That said, they’ll eventually be infected as well.

As to Florida’s “reactions” they’ll also be useless in the end. The virus is going to make it’s way into every household in the world. Nothing will stop that other than the two possibilities already mentioned. The other reality is that increased testing automatically means more reported cases. Your link is to a BBC article. Another of the old guard media with the same leftward leaningl biases as CNN.

The even sadder reality is that once this virus is finished another will take its place. Nature isn’t going to be cheated.
 
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santaman2000

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Only if other folks don't adhere to either isolation or social distancing.

Our numbers of infections, hospitalisations and deaths are falling. NZ has none, our Highlands have contained it, and that's being repeated everywhere where social distancing is maintained.

I see your own state is reacting.....

"On Friday, Florida broke its own daily record for new infections, reporting 8,942 new cases. The previous record was 5,508, reported on Wednesday. The state now has a total of 122,960 recorded cases and 3,366 deaths.

Earlier, Florida's governor said there was no plan to continue reopening step-by-step. "We are where we are. I didn't say we were going to go on to the next phase," Ron DeSantis told reporters."

Addition to say: despite what the article says, Texas has NOT ordered bars (or any other businesses) to reclose since this wave. In words of the Governor, “...we are where we are.” Those businesses which have opened will remain open for now. Including bars.
 
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C_Claycomb

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Regarding the BBC. If you talk to a British Conservative, they tend to say the BBC is Liberal/Labour leaning. If you talk to Labour, they tend to say that it is a Conservative mouth piece. That suggests they might not have bias so much as reporting things that will annoy both groups at some point.

Compared to American Conservatives, almost everyone in the UK are more liberal and left leaning. That does not make us liars.

Not sure what it means when one assumes a news service is not to be trusted because it doesn't side sufficiently with the political party one likes. Whatever, it isn't good. The US media seems so partisan that you have to watch several from opposing sides and figure out the average middle ground for yourself.
 
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C_Claycomb

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The last that I heard, there was serious doubt that herd immunity would work. Has this changed in the last 2-3 weeks? If long lasting herd immunity cannot be achieved by mass infection, like seasonal flu or the cold, some form of restrictions may well be the new normal.
 

Toddy

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Reply to Santaman2000..at reduced levels of customers.

NZ was on the ball, and stopped the infection transmission really quickly and really effectively.

We weren't but we're getting there.

If enough folks do isolate effectively and stop the transmission, then hotspots can be dealt with.

America, north and south sounds like a nightmare scenario. Like India and Africa.

BBC ? it's pretty mainstream. It's considered reliable and accountable for it's news.
Left wing here is not held with the same raging opprobium view that seems so prevalent across the pond. It's just part of the spectrum.
 
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Corso

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The last that I heard, there was serious doubt that herd immunity would work. Has this changed in the last 2-3 weeks? If long lasting herd immunity cannot be achieved by mass infection, like seasonal flu or the cold, some form of restrictions may well be the new normal.

The main worrry about atempting herd immunity in a population is the mortaility rate in the high risk group - that's why said groups needed to be shielded early - not an easy achievement particularly when as a government you were asking your key voting population to suffer when everyone else would have been allowed to carry on as normal...

Mutation is the main reason herd immunity would not work and we don't know yet if that'll happen - we have yet had news of anyone reinfected but it's too early to tell - this would impact both herd immunity and a vaxcine though.
 
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santaman2000

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Regarding the BBC. If you talk to a British Conservative, they tend to say the BBC is Liberal/Labour leaning. If you talk to Labour, they tend to say that it is a Conservative mouth piece. That suggests they might not have bias so much as reporting things that will annoy both groups at some point.

Compared to American Conservatives, almost everyone in the UK are more liberal and left leaning. That does not make us liars.

Not sure what it means when one assumes a news service is not to be trusted because it doesn't side sufficiently with the political party one likes. Whatever, it isn't good. The US media seems so partisan that you have to watch several from opposing sides and figure out the average middle ground for yourself.

Actually I believe NO news media should trusted. As you hint, some are left leaning and others are right leaning. Absolutely NONE are unbiased. This isn’t something new however. At least as far back as the 1800s a common saying was, “Don’t believe anything you hear and only half what you read.” And yes you’re correct that most Americans view most British people as far left liberal leaning.

The last that I heard, there was serious doubt that herd immunity would work. Has this changed in the last 2-3 weeks? If long lasting herd immunity cannot be achieved by mass infection, like seasonal flu or the cold, some form of restrictions may well be the new normal.
The last I heard it was also questionable about herd immunity (although Corso’s comment above gives me at least some hope) That leaves us with the vaccine option or as you say, restrictions being the “new normal.” That last scenario is completely unacceptable. People are already rebelling. If anyone tries to make restrictions permanent it will get very, very ugly.
 

santaman2000

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Reply to Santaman2000..at reduced levels of customers.

NZ was on the ball, and stopped the infection transmission really quickly and really effectively.

We weren't but we're getting there.

If enough folks do isolate effectively and stop the transmission, then hotspots can be dealt with.

America, north and south sounds like a nightmare scenario. Like India and Africa.

BBC ? it's pretty mainstream. It's considered reliable and accountable for it's news.
Left wing here is not held with the same raging opprobium view that seems so prevalent across the pond. It's just part of the spectrum.
NZ was on the ball? It was (and is for now) lucky. They are exceedingly small and already semi ioslated by their very nature. They also have a compliant population that accepts government dictates without much fuss. That said, they WILL be infected sooner or later. There’s absolutely nothing that will stop it.

BBC is far from mainstream. It’s just more difficult to understand that through the lens of a generally left leaning society. Even BBC America (their North American division) is left leaning despite it being mostly a commercial venture vying for viewers (and profit) the same as other media.
 
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TLM

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Strict Stalinist communists are some of the least liberal people on the planet I have never been able to figure out how that meaning creep happened. Like the concept of leftist intellectual, they are strict adherends to a very rigid old thought exercise, there is just no room for any intellectual activity within communist framework. When you see "democratic" in a country's name you know it is not. :rolleyes:;):p
 
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santaman2000

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Strict Stalinist communists are some of the least liberal people on the planet I have never been able to figure out how that meaning creep happened. Like the concept of leftist intellectual, they are strict adherends to a very rigid old thought exercise, there is just no room for any intellectual activity within communist framework. When you see "democratic" in a country's name you know it is not. :rolleyes:;):p
Yeah. Shifting meanings don’t make realistic dialog easy. On either side of the engagement.
 

santaman2000

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Strict Stalinist communists are some of the least liberal people on the planet I have never been able to figure out how that meaning creep happened. Like the concept of leftist intellectual, they are strict adherends to a very rigid old thought exercise, there is just no room for any intellectual activity within communist framework. When you see "democratic" in a country's name you know it is not. :rolleyes:;):p
Despite that I miss Voice of Moscow. It was an old short wave station that usually had fairly reliable news without too much imbellishment. It went off the air shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union. I suppose the downward trend of short wave in general probably also contributed to its demise.
 

TLM

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They were very good at reporting anything they thought was wrong with "capitalism", factually fairly good reporting actually, the comments were hilarious though.

What I miss are the question and answer sessions on Radio Yerevan.
 
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