Quiz show condumdrum

[firecrest]

Firecrest - It isn't statistics as there is no evidence or data. This is maths, as it's pure theory. If someone has data sets that they can send me with the supporting detail then I can look at it statistically. The problem with theory is that I could prove that I was 100% right or 100% wrong.

I'm going to create some data today via a game with the kids - it won't be a massive set but it will be data.

Me? Pedantic? LOL!

As a Lean Six Sigma consultant, I have a motto: "In God I trust - everyone else fetches data!"

Do the game, its fun!

 

[morch]

It was discussed on the radio yesterday, all about Probability if i remember correctly

Dave

 

[Seagull]

Why, it would surely be easier on the mind, to take the view that you actually need a goat?...wunnit?

Ceeg

 

[sam_acw]

Along the lines of "Give a man a car and he can drive to work, give a man a goat and it can eat everything in his garden for life"

 

[Tripitaka]

OK, I concede.

Having played the "game" with kids and created a data set that I am happy with, I acknowledge that it is better to change.

I ran the scenario 20 times for each choice - same door or different door.

If I stayed with the same door, I won only 8 times out of 20. If I changed, I won 15 times out of 20. I still don't entirely understand why but I'm happy the answer is correct.

Stay with the door - 40% chance of success.
Change doors - 75% chance of success.

I'm happy now I have data.

 

[firecrest]

OK, I concede.

Having played the "game" with kids and created a data set that I am happy with, I acknowledge that it is better to change.

I ran the scenario 20 times for each choice - same door or different door.

If I stayed with the same door, I won only 8 times out of 20. If I changed, I won 15 times out of 20. I still don't entirely understand why but I'm happy the answer is correct.

Stay with the door - 40% chance of success.
Change doors - 75% chance of success.

I'm happy now I have data.

I expect if you work in statistics, compiling data will be something that makes you happy

 

[gilly0802]

one of murphys laws:

if there is a 50:50 chance of something, then you will pick the wrong one 90% of the time

 

[Tripitaka]

I expect if you work in statistics, compiling data will be something that makes you happy

Not so much happy, as satisfied. People make assumptions and back them up with the craziest theories passed off as truth; one example is being able to show something in print. Just because it's in a book, doesn't make it right.

Evidence is much harder to come by though.

I'm a Lean Six Sigma consultant so proving things using evidence is a culture for me.