Open question - Financial

[HorseGuy]

This short video shows us what the eight richest and most successful traders in the world are doing themselves right now.

Spoiler - They are dumping stocks and shares as fast as they can and many of them are loading up on gold by the truck load. These are some of the best connected people in the world each with long track records of getting out of the markets early just before a crash happens. I wonder what they know that we don't?

 

[Chris]

By the highly unbiased 'GoldSilver' channel on YouTube, no less.

 

[HorseGuy]

By the highly unbiased 'GoldSilver' channel on YouTube, no less.

This is true and I fully understand your skepticism.

Yet no matter who is reporting the information the fact still remains that the most successful traders of our generation are all dumping stock and shares like it's going out of fashion. This should probably tell you something. Maybe it might be worth checking to see if these claims are really true and that the guy in the gold video is not telling lies?

It's up to you of course. But if I were holding my wealth in pensions and investments that are linked to the stock markets I would certainly feel very nervous right now knowing that Warren Buffet has suddenly sold all his shares. Just a thought.

 

[Paul_B]

This is true and I fully understand your skepticism.

Yet no matter who is reporting the information the fact still remains that the most successful traders of our generation are all dumping stock and shares like it's going out of fashion. This should probably tell you something. Maybe it might be worth checking to see if these claims are really true and that the guy in the gold video is not telling lies?

It's up to you of course. But if I were holding my wealth in pensions and investments that are linked to the stock markets I would certainly feel very nervous right now knowing that Warren Buffet has suddenly sold all his shares. Just a thought.

I think the point is that they are not doing that and even the biggest traders are only a fraction of the whole stock markets. Then again when the tariffs came in, so called Liberations Day, the stocks tanked a bit then after Trump put a delay on the tariffs they went straight back up to preetty much normal.

Than on top of that there are hedge funds. They are not short selling anything I think. These are the guys who know what is going on as they make their liviing from predicting the future.

Of course the very cynical part of me says that if you want to find out about cattle farming, you don't go to a vegan. If you want to find out about the stock market you don't go to a gold and silver youtube channel.

BTW as always there are shares that do well when others do bad. Right now the defence sector is booming. Rolls Royce is one of those businesses that they say have a long way to go up yet. That is because they are at the centre of defence and nuclear. Both right now are in a big growth spell. Put your money into Rolls Royce, Babcocks, BAE Systems, Leonardo, etc. I would bet on them going up still.

 

[HorseGuy]

BTW as always there are shares that do well when others do bad. Right now the defence sector is booming. Rolls Royce is one of those businesses that they say have a long way to go up yet. That is because they are at the centre of defence and nuclear. Both right now are in a big growth spell. Put your money into Rolls Royce, Babcocks, BAE Systems, Leonardo, etc. I would bet on them going up still.

Yes I agree that defense stocks still have a high chance of continuing to do well over the next few years. In fact I personally considered making a large bet on them myself right before Russia invaded Ukraine. It was obvious to a blind man what was coming next and I was certain that a small fortune could be made. Many hours that night were spent wrestling with my thoughts before I finally decided not to invest in defense stocks despite the obvious profits that were there for the taking.

So what stopped me pulling the trigger (no pun intended)? The knowledge that my wealth would be used to murder and maim god knows how many thousands of people. That was not something which I wanted weighing on my conscience. So now here we are three years later knowing that I would have made many thousands of pounds without so much as lifting a finger and I am still absolutely sure that it was the right decision. There is no blood on my hands and I sleep easy at night knowing that I chose not to invest in any defense stocks right before they shot up to the moon (no pun intended again). It was the definitely the right thing to do.

I’m not a religious person and I have no idea if the big guy upstairs exists or not but if he does I’m sure he would agree with me on this one. Who wants to stand at the pearly gates one day and have explain why you were willing to murder and maim thousands of people that you’ve never met just to make a few easy quid? Not me that’s for sure.

 

[Wayne]

Just a reminder to stay clear of getting too political.

 

[Paul_B]

Deleted a long reply to HG after going back and seeing Wayne's post.

To remove the political I will summarise as simply saying Boycott, Divestment and Sanction is about picking your hypocrisy over what you deny and accept. Defence companies are not isolated from the rest of the economy but intergral. You simply cannot live in this modern day without some defence sector entanglement in your life.

I do of course commend the idea behind it. Who would not want a war and violence free world???

 

[HorseGuy]

Just a reminder to stay clear of getting too political.

Apologies. I will refrain from ever mentioning the subjects of either politics or religion again.

My brain is a rather blunt and clumsy instrument unsuited to the subtleties required of a public forum. My intention was to describe a previous thought pattern which led me away from investing in defence stocks despite the prospect of earning profits that would have measured somewhere in the hundreds of thousands of pounds.

Another point worth adding to my previous post though is that if I had gone ahead with those defence stock bets three years ago I would have already dollar cost averaged out of those positions by now taking profits all the way. I still think that due to the likelihood of continued escalation of war for the foreseeable future defence stocks still have a way to run. But the general risk of wide scale market instability makes the risk/reward ratio of holding onto any stocks of any kind just to unpredictable to be worth the gamble for the moment.

For me I am happy to take my chips off the table and consolidate what I already have in real physical assets. My gut is telling me it is better to be safe rather than taking unnecessary risks trying to chase more profits for the time being. For now I will spend time working and enjoying outside life in the countryside learning new skills and gaining real life experience. I think the profits to be made out here will far outweigh any potential profits that could be made in the stock markets. Just not in monetary terms.

 

[HorseGuy]

Deleted a long reply to HG after going back and seeing Wayne's post.

To remove the political I will summarise as simply saying Boycott, Divestment and Sanction is about picking your hypocrisy over what you deny and accept. Defence companies are not isolated from the rest of the economy but intergral. You simply cannot live in this modern day without some defence sector entanglement in your life.

I do of course commend the idea behind it. Who would not want a war and violence free world???

Yes I agree with your points. You are quite right.

I am a hypocrite too as I once invested in uranium. For what it's worth I did loose on those so I guess that was the karma for lying to myself and pretending that it was morally ok because uranium is used in power generation as well. Serves me right really. Lesson learned.

As a side note. While I always sing the praises of holding real physical metals over ETF paper promises uranium is one metal where I would rather pick the latter instead.

 

[Falstaff]

As a side note. While I always sing the praises of holding real physical metals over ETF paper promises uranium is one metal where I would rather pick the latter instead.

That's what the shed at the bottom of the garden is for......

 

[Chris]

That's what the shed at the bottom of the garden is for......

"Oh this? This is just my pruning uranium."

 

[GreyDog]

Would any of you take into account your suggestions with reference to the massive amount of Q.E / money printing that has taken ( still is ) place??

I think this is why Gold and Silver are both rising (last 6-8 months), global instability has added momentum. With 20k I would buy gold and silver royalty stocks as their potential upside is far higher than the physical metal (although, implicitly, there's nothing wrong with buying physical). If you have 18mth or longer horizon you can expect silver in particular to rebase as it has so many industrial uses for which demand is ever expanding (chips, solar, military) and supply is relatively constrained. The main reason it's still historically cheap is the big banks shorting via paper contracts to keep prices low for their (and governments) industrial uses, but that is cracking as the BRICS are draining the exchanges by demanding delivery. I'm not a financial advisor and this isn't investment advice, just a POV

 

[TeeDee]

Ref Silver - I want to believe the various factors surrounding it , its possible usages , its potential scarcity and extinction , I want to see and know that the GSR is either showing Gold is vastly overpriced ( don't think so ) or that Silver is vastly under priced - and ready to " go to the moon ! " as Golds smaller more bipolar little unpredictable brother.


But... I've held Silver for quite a long time - and its not done much - pretty much nothing If im honest and you need a serious amount of inner faith to hold an asset and reinvest in that asset without seeing any positive movement. Gold has done well ( depending upon your perspective of what 'well' means ) and I can definitely see the long term inner cogs of countries and central banks reintroducing some sort of Gold backed currency akin to the Swiss franc but on a syndicated type bases - BRICS / Amero etc

But Silver... I just wish it would show the glimmer of something that looks like life in it...

 

[HorseGuy]

Ref Silver - I want to believe the various factors surrounding it , its possible usages , its potential scarcity and extinction , I want to see and know that the GSR is either showing Gold is vastly overpriced ( don't think so ) or that Silver is vastly under priced - and ready to " go to the moon ! " as Golds smaller more bipolar little unpredictable brother.

But... I've held Silver for quite a long time - and its not done much - pretty much nothing If im honest and you need a serious amount of inner faith to hold an asset and reinvest in that asset without seeing any positive movement. Gold has done well ( depending upon your perspective of what 'well' means ) and I can definitely see the long term inner cogs of countries and central banks reintroducing some sort of Gold backed currency akin to the Swiss franc but on a syndicated type bases - BRICS / Amero etc

But Silver... I just wish it would show the glimmer of something that looks like life in it...

Better to be 5 years early than 5 minutes late.

 

[Paul_B]

Yes I agree with your points. You are quite right.

I am a hypocrite too as I once invested in uranium. For what it's worth I did loose on those so I guess that was the karma for lying to myself and pretending that it was morally ok because uranium is used in power generation as well. Serves me right really. Lesson learned.

As a side note. While I always sing the praises of holding real physical metals over ETF paper promises uranium is one metal where I would rather pick the latter instead.

It does not have to be hypocrisy but lack of knowledge. I mean if you only know one company as a civillian sector company it is perhaps easy to not realise they have an additional defence sector revenue stream. I mean big players like GE, Siemens and the like have defence sector units. It is amazing when you learn that big defence companies end up supplying things into purely civillian ssystems like trains and trams!!

You simply cannot be expected to know which large company is wholly civillian sector without any defence work in the mix.

 

[Dan00001]

I'm personally selling bit by bit as the market moves higher. I'm back to 87% cash in one account and 70% cash in the other with a year to date return of 22%. If the market continues higher, I'll continue selling, if the market falls, I'll start buying again.

 

[slaine_23]

Apologies. I will refrain from ever mentioning the subjects of either politics or religion again.

My brain is a rather blunt and clumsy instrument unsuited to the subtleties required of a public forum. My intention was to describe a previous thought pattern which led me away from investing in defence stocks despite the prospect of earning profits that would have measured somewhere in the hundreds of thousands of pounds.

Another point worth adding to my previous post though is that if I had gone ahead with those defence stock bets three years ago I would have already dollar cost averaged out of those positions by now taking profits all the way. I still think that due to the likelihood of continued escalation of war for the foreseeable future defence stocks still have a way to run. But the general risk of wide scale market instability makes the risk/reward ratio of holding onto any stocks of any kind just to unpredictable to be worth the gamble for the moment.

For me I am happy to take my chips off the table and consolidate what I already have in real physical assets. My gut is telling me it is better to be safe rather than taking unnecessary risks trying to chase more profits for the time being. For now I will spend time working and enjoying outside life in the countryside learning new skills and gaining real life experience. I think the profits to be made out here will far outweigh any potential profits that could be made in the stock markets. Just not in monetary terms.

For what it’s worth I didn’t see your post as being particularly political or religious. Rather it made a lot of sense.

 

[slaine_23]

I can’t afford either physical gold, the paper claiming I own some gold, the electronic paperwork that says I own gold or broker held claims that I own gold.
Im investing in tin, specifically tin foil, for hats, the making of.
Of course YMMV.
I will endeavour to source ethical tin foil.

 

[Chris]

I can’t afford either physical gold, the paper claiming I own some gold, the electronic paperwork that says I own gold or broker held claims that I own gold.
Im investing in tin, specifically tin foil, for hats, the making of.
Of course YMMV.
I will endeavour to source ethical tin foil.

Best I can do is a Wispa Gold.

Much better investment, anyway.

 

[GreyCat]

Interesting thread.

I worked with a chap once who was from a farming family, and so his savings whet into extra acres of prime agricultural land. Admittedly, he had the set up to utilise it effectively, as the farm was multi-generational.

His father's view was that food always comes back into fashion......

If I had a spare £20k for investment, I would look at trying to obtain some of the land bordering where I currently live... make the property land area a bit bigger. Continue the willow bed development. I'd also look at getting the barn and workshop into an improved state of repair, perhaps adding more raised beds/polytunnel coverage and increasing the coal and wood stockpile. Maybe get improved energy systems- e.g. a solar/battery system or similar. Lots of little things to hedge against price increases and improve household resilience in the long term.

GC