Open question - Financial
- Thread starter TeeDee
- Start date
-
BushMoot: Come along to the amazing Summer Moot 31st July - 5th August (extended Moot : 27th July - 8th August), a festival of bushcrafting and camping in a beautiful woodland PLEASE CLICK HERE for more information.
Not 100% convinced - I paid around £30 in 1974 for a mint set of coins including a number of sterling silver coins - the set is now worth £60-£100; the inflation value is nearer £375 to £400. £30 invested in low risk stocks in 1974 would now be worth about £1,400.
They are pretty though
Silver, between 1974 and now, has just about kept up with inflation. £30 of silver in 1974 (just short of 16oz) would now be worth around £380 today.
They are pretty though
Silver, between 1974 and now, has just about kept up with inflation. £30 of silver in 1974 (just short of 16oz) would now be worth around £380 today.
Last edited:
Yes that is exactly the point. In a world where almost everything else is in an overpriced bubble silver is the most undervalued commodity in the world right now.Not 100% convinced - I paid around £30 in 1974 for a mint set of coins including a number of sterling silver coins - the set is now worth £60-£100; the inflation value is nearer £375 to £400. £30 invested in low risk stocks in 1974 would now be worth about £1,400.
They are pretty though
Silver, between 1974 and now, has just about kept up with inflation. £30 of silver in 1974 (just short of 16oz) would now be worth around £380 today.
For over half a century the banks have been suppressing the price of physical silver using the paper markets. Every day more paper silver is traded than even physically exists above ground. This suppression is rapidly coming to an end though as recently many more people have now started standing for physical delivery of very large quantities of the physical metal rather than accepting a paper promise (there is currently over 100 x more paper promises for silver ownership than there are actual physical ounces of silver available in the world).
On top of this for the past several years there has been a large and rapidly increasing supply/demand disparity for industrial silver which is steadily eating away at the existing above ground supply. This is likely to continue increasing as new technologies like AI and high efficiency solar panels require ever increasing quantities of silver to make them work. There are also very few new silver mines planned for the foreseeable future and to start new ones from scratch is usually around a 20 year process.
On the other side of the equation regular investments like stocks and shares are currently in the biggest financial bubble that has ever existed in all of history. The banks are all massively in debt and ripe to collapse at the first sign of any major wobbles in the financial markets (see The Great Taking for more information on this). Almost every government around the world is trapped in a massive debt to GDP death spiral which is mathematically impossible for them to escape from. This is an epic financial disaster waiting to happen even before you throw in the prospect of possible WW3 into the mix!
When this global debt bubble finally bursts and the unbacked fiat currencies collapse where do you think all of the rich people will run to to secure their wealth? The same place they always do – Gold. When all the small people realise that they can no longer afford to buy gold where do you think they will run to? The next best thing – Silver. While the rich individually own more than poor people do there are many more poor people than there are rich people and collectively it is still the poor people who hold most of the worlds overall wealth.
At the moment almost nobody’s paying attention to silver yet the silver market is already incredibly tightly squeezed to the point of almost bursting. What do you think will happen to the prices of gold and silver when there is a massive financial crash and lots of people all try to rush in to them at the same time to save their wealth?
Last edited:
I don't see in this scenario how poor people running to silver will make it any more valuable. In fact, I don't see that they would do this at all.
The wealth and the resources will all be backed by gold, as that's what the 'rich people' (including governments) use. For the poor people to get any of the things the rich people have, they'll need to use that same currency. If I as someone who has valuable commodities (whether food/property/whatever) sees gold as holding value, why would I accept silver in exchange for it? Why would the poor not just buy gold in smaller denominations? Why would the national currency (unless you think there won't be one anymore, in which case metals become of no use compared with food/water/consumables in a barter-based post-apocalyptic economy) suddenly decide to back itself on silver, when no currencies in the world do so currently?
Honestly it feels like a lot of financial disinformation is spread via Social Media algorithms to try and make money for people selling low value items/services, exploiting people's fear of doom and disaster.
It's not just the poor. The rich run to silver too. When everything else drops what other options are there? (other than other real physical commodities things like land, food, tools etc.)
There will be continued industrial demand too and they will pay whatever they have to or their products don't get made and that includes practically all electronic devices of all kinds.
Last edited:
Far better to invest in a broad range of commodities and resources if you think that's the way to go. Or, of course, the technologies and developments that are causing the increase in demand in the first place. Or, better still, both.
Silver was deemed under-valued in the 70's (it's why we were all persuaded it was a good buy then) - nothing much has changed.
Spread options, mixed risk, for steady growth. But, your money's yours, do what you like with it
Silver was deemed under-valued in the 70's (it's why we were all persuaded it was a good buy then) - nothing much has changed.
Spread options, mixed risk, for steady growth. But, your money's yours, do what you like with it
To hold wealth, a small amount in precious metals can be a good hedge if you're worried about financial collapse (not full societal/banking system collapse) as it does hold value, sometimes even keeping up with inflation. But in real terms, investing in precious metals as a primary investment is a way to ensure you lose money (as in, you miss out on the statistically very likely gains) in the long term compared with investing in the wider financial system that the world currently runs on.
Realistically though, if everything else drops then the only thing of value are the basic necessities of life and manual labour in exchange for goods, until a government of some sort forms and a new currency is established.
I don't hate the idea of having some precious metals, in fact I'd consider doing so at some point just to diversify slightly in order to reduce overall risk. But investing huge amounts in precious metals at the expense of everything else isn't financially savvy, and certainly doing so with the expectation that silver is suddenly going to skyrocket is an incredibly risky move. If we're talking apocalypse, adding risk rather than spreading risk does not seem the sensible course.
As Broch said though, people should do with their own money as they please.
I think Horseguy has raised the point that concerns me - who physically holds it and therefore controls it. If it is held by some bullion dealer a) they can hold you to ransom if you want to cash it in, b) It's just magic money, non-existent paper gold/silver as he describes it. (Even if they claim to hold physical gold themselves.)
Chris's point then becomes relevant, if you physically hold it, what good is it?
Irrespective of whether it is gold or silver. If someone else buys into the concept that it has worth, then you have a barter medium (i.e the value and exchange rate are whatever you can negotiate. ) The basic metals themselves have limited uses (more if industry still exists). As a domestic user you might have trouble actually selling it or converting it to something else, at probably a high conversion cost.
How far you go down the rabbit hole of financial collapse/end-of-the world changes the potential value of paper or physical silver&gold, as it does other physical assets. If you can indentify an asset that always has value and saleability irrespective of the state of the world then you have found a secure, if not competitive, investment.
Stocks and shares are just another form of horserace betting, most of mine have been 3-legged donkeys.
Chris's point then becomes relevant, if you physically hold it, what good is it?
Irrespective of whether it is gold or silver. If someone else buys into the concept that it has worth, then you have a barter medium (i.e the value and exchange rate are whatever you can negotiate. ) The basic metals themselves have limited uses (more if industry still exists). As a domestic user you might have trouble actually selling it or converting it to something else, at probably a high conversion cost.
How far you go down the rabbit hole of financial collapse/end-of-the world changes the potential value of paper or physical silver&gold, as it does other physical assets. If you can indentify an asset that always has value and saleability irrespective of the state of the world then you have found a secure, if not competitive, investment.
Stocks and shares are just another form of horserace betting, most of mine have been 3-legged donkeys.
I agree. In reality that is what I already do now. I own a wide range of different assets in different areas including all the land, tools and horses I could ever want. There's a chocolate bar and a few packets of seeds in the cupboard too.Far better to invest in a broad range of commodities and resources if you think that's the way to go. Or, of course, the technologies and developments that are causing the increase in demand in the first place. Or, better still, both.
Silver was deemed under-valued in the 70's (it's why we were all persuaded it was a good buy then) - nothing much has changed.
Spread options, mixed risk, for steady growth. But, your money's yours, do what you like with it
Maybe I'm wrong. Who knows? I guess time will tell. But if I was given £20k and told to pick just one thing it would be silver where that unbacked fiat currency would go (it would be land if there was more than £20k).
I have always been a contrarian who goes against the grain. Nine times out of ten this has paid off and I have done better than the rest of the masses who all copy each other. Last time it was getting into crypto when no one else was interested then getting out when it started to get too popular. I think silver will be the next crypto. It won't stay high forever but I think when it moves it will move very high and very fast (before eventually dropping again) The time to get out and move into something else will be when the masses take notice and silver becomes popular.
Last edited:
Good point, the question was what to do with £20K - as I currently don't hold bullion on its own (various funds do include bullion), maybe that would be a good spread
I'm happy with the distinction and my positionIf you don't hold it you don't really own it.
As they say.
Fair enough. Your cash your choice. I hope it works for you. I really do.I'm happy with the distinction and my position
Just remember that the derivatives markets are a game of musical chairs with over 100 people dancing for every chair available. What do you think will happen to your paper promises when the music stops playing?
You may want to take a look at a book called The Great Taking. Or if you want a more condensed version there is a video on YouTube by the same name. Just a bit of food for thought if you are interested to learn more about who really owns the legal rights to many of the investments (even bank deposits) that are supposedly in your name.
Last edited:
O
That is the point Chris. It is NOT backed by gold. It is backed by fresh air. It is inevitable that it will collapse. Chris it is a subject really worth studying if we don't want to lose everything. xxx
There's a lot more gold under the river Thames than fort Knox ever held! From what I've been told London and UK is the world's preferred location for investment gold holdings.
Having said that rare earth metal bullion is where the real money is. As two semi retired traders in it said, if you actually stopped to think about what all those zeros to the left of the decimal point meant with the rare earth metals deal you'd go mad. It's not possible to compute the value of these deals. Things like osmium, rhodium, etc make gold look cheap!
Late to this but since it was first open I've changed employers to a large organisation that's in the middle of its busiest ever period. It's booming across all business units for the first time ever. Order books into the second half of this century!!
So if you're ever in such a company with money to invest then two things I'd do first. First max out the company pension. In my case they'll match your contributions each month.
Second their shares have risen dramatically, but all advice is to buy to hold even at these record share price. The company still has value to come in it! So second thing I'd do is sink as much of my monthly salary into the share save deal.
It comes out of your gross salary in salary sacrifice so you can get a full share amount but feel a lot less coming out of your take home. On top the company matches pound for pound what you put in. That's doubling your money from each payment without any growth. The thing is after five years any cashing in avoids capital gains tax on profits. You don't lose out to HMRC!
Now that's only £150 max per month for share save and there's a limit for pensions. But if your money from the job covers bills so you can't take advantage. Well a lump sum could take over while you put your salary into those tax efficient and longer term company based investments.
Then I guess ISAs and the like would be my other advice too.
PS I do think the tax efficient options should be maxed out first like pensions, share save schemes and ISAs first.
So if you're ever in such a company with money to invest then two things I'd do first. First max out the company pension. In my case they'll match your contributions each month.
Second their shares have risen dramatically, but all advice is to buy to hold even at these record share price. The company still has value to come in it! So second thing I'd do is sink as much of my monthly salary into the share save deal.
It comes out of your gross salary in salary sacrifice so you can get a full share amount but feel a lot less coming out of your take home. On top the company matches pound for pound what you put in. That's doubling your money from each payment without any growth. The thing is after five years any cashing in avoids capital gains tax on profits. You don't lose out to HMRC!
Now that's only £150 max per month for share save and there's a limit for pensions. But if your money from the job covers bills so you can't take advantage. Well a lump sum could take over while you put your salary into those tax efficient and longer term company based investments.
Then I guess ISAs and the like would be my other advice too.
PS I do think the tax efficient options should be maxed out first like pensions, share save schemes and ISAs first.
Similar threads
