Met office "faking" climate data

[Chris]

I am getting Pigeon Chess vibes, and not really sure there's much point in continuing with someone so deeply down the antiscientific rabbit hole. You carry on believing whatever makes you feel warm and cosy. Anyway, that's it from me here and I should've really known better when you started out by comparing scientists to Nazis. So that's on me.

 

[William_Montgomery]

As for trust in these things, all I can say is that having worked in the industry, yes I personally trust the data. And I say that having no love for the industry either. Just experience.

Which industry did you/do you work in? If you don't mind me asking a personal question.

 

[gibson 175]

Surely there is no higher authority on this subject than the words of the almighty Bob Dylan's Subterannean Homesick Blues. Altogether now...
Keep a clean nose
Watch the plain clothes
You don’t need a weatherman
To know which way the wind blows

 

[XSR101]

Global Warming in the Pipeline for Earth. Proff James E Hansen, formerly NASA Jet Propulsion Lab. Paper published 2 November 2023.

"Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols."

Human made aerosols are things like soot. During the pandemic lockdown caused a spike in temperature due to the loss of aerosols.

CO2 is currently at 426ppm.

You can read the whole paper here if you like:

This data is not based on modelling.

https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889

 

[XSR101]

The shutdown of the AMOC will please those who thought we were heading for an ice age. For a little while.

 

[Hammock_man]

Much of BcUK offers a learning experience. This does not.

Oh so very true

 

[TLM]

Hmm... rereading this on a drizzly day.

There is a known record of Nazi scientists but that does not mean all scientists are National Socialists. Assuming that no scientists has an bias agenda is with high probability wrong like with high probability there are scientists with no conscious bias.

Shutting down the Gulf Stream would be slightly catastrophic.

I am old enough to remember when first it was: we closing in onto a new ice age, then it became earth is going to fry and finally somebody changed that into the safe bet of climate change. We have a very good record that climate changes all the time.

It might well exist but I have not seen anybody try to part the change into natural and human induced ones. Also in all fields of science there have been erroneous papers it would we the first if climate study is one without any.

 

[Tengu]

Yes.

I would be more worried about pollution and poor resource management.

 

[XSR101]

Having a basic understanding of the science behind the greenhouse effect which helps maintain life on earth & the addition of CO2 methane & from anthropogenic climate chang, mainly from the oil industry & industrial cattle farming for fast food which has occurred during the last 300 years.

You could add ice melt, on mountain glaciers, flooding from destructive rainfall.

I travel to parts of southern Europe by Train for holidays sometimes. A famous dr died from heat exposure last year.

Understanding climate change, it's risks and landscapes that trap heat is a survival tool. I think you can ignore it if you like, but it could be a mistake to do so.

 

[XSR101]

"scientific studies have proved that at least 24 "previously impossible" heatwaves have struck the planet and killed people across North America, Europe, and Asia. Worryingly, additional studies have also demonstrated that global heating is responsible for making 550 heatwaves, floods, storms, droughts, and wildfires significantly worse, leading to the premature deaths of millions of people, including thousands of newborn babies."

There's a lot to learn about the new earth we now live on. It's no longer friendly to human civilisation & agriculture. Parts of the planet are more hostile to humans than they have ever been in human history. The speed in which this has taken place is unprecedented, and on a parallel with a nearly earth object impact. Don't look up? A bit dramatic maybe. 2024 was 1.6°C

I always thought bushcraft & Survival skills were about situational awareness? Maybe not?

'Impossible' heatwaves take the lives of thousands, leaving experts dumbfounded: 'We are humans ... we have children'

"Some say climate scientists shouldn't paint a picture of doom and gloom."

www.yahoo.com

 

[XSR101]

Just because it's raining outside somewhere in Britain does not mean that an "impossible heatwave" can't happen in USA. Because that is what is happening right now.

Climate scientist have ceased using models because they were inaccurate. Scientists are now observing phenomenon in real time, the common comment is "sooner than the models predicted" & "sooner than expected".

As for soot & air pollution? It would be good to clean up the atmosphere, maybe? But possibly problematic. The international maritime authoriy banned sulfur in shipping fuel in 2020. In 2024 sea surface temperatures rose dramatically causing a global heatwave.

Clouds might not be such a bad thing after all.

Study: Shipping's Sulfur Cut Caused Worldwide Heat Wave

Average temperatures have soared off the charts over the lastr year, catching climate scientists by surprise. Climate models have long predicted an ac...

www.maritime-executive.com

 

[TeeDee]

Without any particular axe to grind in this 'which side of the fence' type convo - what do people make of this ??

Ice being increased at a high rate.

Shocking Antarctica discovery sends climate deniers into celebration

Scientists have made a shocking discovery in Antarctica that has climate change deniers claiming there's now proof global warming is just a hoax.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Antarctica’s Astonishing Rebound: Ice Sheet Grows for the First Time in Decades

This partially me wanting to know more , and partially me happy to let a conversational firecracker off and see who jumps highest.

 

[Glow_worm]

Interesting reading.

I'm not sure about the reporting.
I'm not sure about the science.
I'm not sure about the motives behind the science.
I'm not sure if humans are significantly affecting the ever-changine climate.
I'm not sure what's going to happen in future.

I'm expecting much colder weather, much hotter weather, much drier weather, much wetter weather, much windier weather, much calmer weather, and even much more dull-grey-in-the-middle weather.

And making sure through some simple planning and actions that none of the above will turn me into a liability having to rely on other people to bail me out.

 

[Chris]

Without any particular axe to grind in this 'which side of the fence' type convo - what do people make of this ??

Ice being increased at a high rate.

Shocking Antarctica discovery sends climate deniers into celebration

Scientists have made a shocking discovery in Antarctica that has climate change deniers claiming there's now proof global warming is just a hoax.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Antarctica’s Astonishing Rebound: Ice Sheet Grows for the First Time in Decades

This partially me wanting to know more , and partially me happy to let a conversational firecracker off and see who jumps highest.

I think a trend is what matters.

For example, if my health was deteriorating steadily over 10 years and then suddenly one year it was a bit better again in year 11 (but still far worse than year 1) that wouldn’t necessarily mean I was suddenly fine.

If it declined steadily over 10 years and then I recovered back to my initial level of health again over a few years and sustained it, that’d be great news.

Though specifically with the Daily Mail, their narrative will always be treated with extreme suspicion as they unarguably have a huge amount of political bias.

All that aside, if there IS some good news to come out of this then that would be lovely. I suppose we’ll see over time.

 

[TeeDee]

I think a trend is what matters.

For example, if my health was deteriorating steadily over 10 years and then suddenly one year it was a bit better again in year 11 (but still far worse than year 1) that wouldn’t necessarily mean I was suddenly fine.

If it declined steadily over 10 years and then I recovered back to my initial level of health again over a few years and sustained it, that’d be great news.

Though specifically with the Daily Mail, their narrative will always be treated with extreme suspicion as they unarguably have a huge amount of political bias.
partial
All that aside, if there IS some good news to come out of this then that would be lovely. I suppose we’ll see over time.

Only quoting the Mail and the other link because that is what I found easily.

If we followed your analogy of human health then it seems it would be somewhere akin to partial remission.

In which case ,if provable , we would surely look at what medications and treatments were being used in the build up to that positive outcome and extend them or consider ( if holistically ) healthy increasing the dose.

Like I say , I am NOT educated on the subject matter but I am interested when something of a weird fluke like empirical event runs in contrarian direction to the major narrative ( it seems )

 

[Chris]

If we followed your analogy of human health then it seems it would be somewhere akin to partial remission.

Well, it would at least indicate that one symptom was consistent with going into remission, though of course we’d still look at the whole picture and overall health trends to know that.

If it is indeed a trend, or a positive result which is due to something we’ve done or something else positive happening, then that would be great news. Here’s to hoping, though with a healthy dose of skepticism. We’re about due some good news!

 

[Nice65]

We’re about due some good news!

An ice age is approaching?

We’re in danger of measuring the damage caused by a couple of hundred years (or whatever it is) of fossil fuel burning against natural processes that take 1000’s of years. A bit of a cold spell isn’t ‘proof’ of anything.

 

[Falstaff]

XSR101 is clearly passionate about this, fine their choice. However, I've seen so much duff headlines, duff data, and claims on all sides of the issue that I treat it all with suspicion.
I do though agree with them on one more general point, situational awareness.

But to a greater or lesser extent most of the bushcraft community and this forum do that anyway, it's just a matter of degree and differing views of what the perceived risk/issue is.

When going to parts foreign, I do take take a view of risk factors, political, financial and weather related, and prep accordingly. e.g. pack waterproofs when going to Wales, and maybe a Language book if the Welsh Assembly get their way!

 

[C_Claycomb]

One swallow does not make a summer.
I wonder if the issue is that warmer average temperatures put more moisture in the atmosphere, which in turn is able to dump more snow in Antarctica and that we just turned a point where the increase in snow offset the melting.

Folk on both sides of the subject point out that local weather isn’t the same as the overall planetary climate…until the local weather appears to back up their view point