Human disasters...

[arctic hobo]

Not sure how true this is but heard this morning that the Tsunami has pushed the Earth off its axis by about an inch or so (they haven't worked otu yet which way...) and this will result in us probably getting less hours of daylight - by only a few minutes, and that it will either push us into warmer, or colder climate conditions.

I think it'll be more like a few seconds than a few minutes! If it tips more, then we get more extreme climates, and longer days in summer, shorter in winter, if it tips more upright it'll be a more uniform climate and day length.

 

[Adi007]

Not even seconds from the data I have access to - this seems to be information that is circulating to make every place seem significant in being affected.

Take a look at: http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/env99/env275.htm

Speed to the end unless you are really interested in this soft of thing:

Even though there was a gain (of +0.000152) on the 26-27th, not all
of it is attributable to the tsunami as the daily gain, or negative
loss, was trending in that direction anyway.

 

[jakunen]

Negative loss?? If that's not legalise I don't know what is!

I suppose next they'll be talking about a positive deficit...

 

[arctic hobo]

Islands moved 20 metres! Amazing if you could watch it!

 

[JakeR]

Is any of this predictable?

 

[Adi007]

Is any of this predictable?

These effects are measured rather than predicted. Measurements are carried out by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service.

The energy involved in this quake is staggering - around 20 x 10^17 Joules, or 475,000 kilotons (475 megatons) of TNT (the equivalent of 23,000 Hiroshima bombs.)

 

[JakeR]

Cheers Adi.

But could the earthquake have been predicted? Or the tsunami?

 

[leon-1]

Jake, I do not think that it could be pedicted quite in the way of "it will happen here and will be of this strength or intensity at this time of day".

There are many systems which can be put in place that could give minimal early warning, but you can never really know how large a quake will be. You could never really surmise the amount of friction that one tectonic plate will have against another hence would not know the amount of force that will need to be applied for one to move against another.

The amount of surface and the geological composition dictates the amount of friction and thus the amount of force required to move a tectonic plate and the degree of the quake that will result.

The Americans are still being caught off gaurd to this day by the San Andreas Fault and they have all sorts of equipment including Sat and geophones that monitor it.

So in short no, there is no way of determining exactly when and how large a qauke will be. Sorry.