The Covid19 Thread

[Chainsaw]

SARS and COVID are not the same, SARS is deadlier but less easily spread in the community, mainly down to viral shedding only occurring after the patient was quite ill. That's why the SARS lock down was more effective in ending it quickly. Either way drastic measures are required to initially contain a virus, without them then it will run rampage as we are seeing in the US today. Their daily infection rate is now higher than it was at the beginning of the outbreak.

It is a fact that the only way to slow or stop the virus right now is to limit human to human contact.

Unfortunately we need the economy to work, without it pensions and benefits don't get paid, NHS and public servants don't get paid, there can be no investment in infrastructure. This money comes from tax revenue, the economy needs to hum or we are going to face even tougher austerity measures. Don't be fooled about BoJo's "build, build, build" crap he is going to have cut spending, he just wont tell you about it. I wouldn't like to be on the hook to figure out the balance of economy versus public health, we can't favour both at the moment, something has got to give. Everyone's view on this will be different and there is no right answer, it's a trade off depending on your point of view.

But sometimes things are stupid regardless;

1. BoJo - Let's open the pubs on a Saturday for the first time... Looking forward to seeing the carnage in the news and the resultant spike in infections with possible lockdowns following.
2. Wee Nippy - We might close the border and/or impose quarantines... Tesco - oh really and how are you going to get your food then???

There will never be agreement on the way to go so it's a pointless discussion to have, we'll never reach consensus but I know that wont stop you

Stay safe all!

 

[C_Claycomb]

I pity those that have to make these decisions. It doesn't matter what decision they make, whether it saves lives, or saves the economy, they will get roasted by critics afterwards.

I know someone just as passionate and decided as you chaps who would want to see our government and the WHO roasted on a stake for not pushing the panic button sooner and getting everyone in the UK wearing a mask in February. No amount of discussion about why the decisions were made makes any difference. No amount of telling him that the British wouldn't have taken it seriously and that there weren't enough masks makes a difference. He just goes back to..."...but if they did, it was obviously the right thing to do and would have made things better." Yeah, it would have, in an ideal world, which isn't the one we live in.

Crying wolf? Go talk to the families of the people who would be alive now, but for this virus. If this pandemic isn't deadly enough, what do you think the threshold should be? Not long ago the UK government said they thought that limiting deaths to 20,000 would be a good outcome, and there were people horrified that such a large number could be considered good. Now there are over 40,000, more than anywhere else in Europe, and you folk are saying everyone over reacted and we should have let it run higher, faster?

 

[TLM]

One must not forget that it was the Chinese government that actively spread the virus by prohibiting all domestic flights from Wuhan and allowing all international flights. In a way taking the B from ABC warfare ...

That is one part of it, the other is how to respond. If you want to get rid of your grandparents follow the Swedish and NYC model. From information gathered in Finland it looks like limiting people in their houses probably is not a good idea, outdoor transmission is much rarer than indoor (which favors the droplet or aerosol model of transmission). The only thing I can see where most countries failed is not acting fast enough that is the result of political and government systems in most European countries. Nothing much can be done about that unless you want to live in a tyranny.

 

[santaman2000]

Indeed



If you create a kettle don't be suprised when it boils



China led the medical community a merry dance from day 1 (which was probably August last year) I wouldn't trust anything coming out of there

The whole approach has been wrong from the start - shield the vunerable - let the rest of us get on with it.

Agreed about China. However if that single case they “supposedly” tracked to an outdoor venue is false, then it means NO outbreaks whatsoever have been tracked to an outdoor venue.

And yet, New Zealand has wiped it out in their islands, only when some infected person comes in does it re-start, and they got a grip on that pdq........

As I said before:
-NZ was/is a special case in being an extremely small and naturally isolated nation.
and
NZ has “wiped out” nothing. They delayed it. It WILL get there and it WILL infect almost everyone.

 

[santaman2000]

.......Crying wolf? Go talk to the families of the people who would be alive now, but for this virus........

I have done just that last week at the funeral of an old childhood friend and classmate. Her family all still agree the government is indeed over reacting and intruding. Her husband, her sister, her daughter (by the way, the husband and sister also tested positive and it hasn’t swayed their beliefs)

 

[Paul_B]

It's certainly a balancing act but my reference to panic button is in relation to excessive measures Vs sensible ones. A counter argument to scaring everyone to get control of the virus. The scare aspects of government hasn't worked. What could have worked better was acting sooner with the lockdown and especially telling people it was coming from the beginning then the lockdown variety is important. Everyone home except for essential jobs like getting food or medicines. Alternatively do you allow the exercise get out of the house clause. That alone was totally misused in the UK. Then there's track and trace. The countries with the best records did that well. They're also the democratic world's closest thing to benign dictatorships due to collective nature.

NZ? Small country, small population, small economy and totally unique if you ask me. That country was one that above almost all countries I would bet on having the best results. It's but more in favour of it than almost all countries. Not least a government that works well with a good leader. Take America and the opposite is true I reckon. No offence meant to Americans but national culture and you know who plus a republican party so tied into you know who.

SARS & MERS? Totally different virus' and not as good model to compare with COVID 19 from what I read. Although I did read that the original modelling that UK government used for advice was based on one developed for those two.

I suspect the less intrusive idea of shielding the vulnerable them letting the others get it was not a good idea neither. Firstly did we know who were vulnerable at the beginning? No! Reason it was still being discovered but also there's no annual health check to actually know the vulnerable neither. Then do you shield the vulnerable among the BAME sector of society too?

It's such a complex situation that basically whoever makes the decisions need to make them and roll the dice. I dare say that if NZ had made different decisions the could have been still suffering with the virus and who's to know whether they were close to making those other decisions?

 

[Corso]

Crying wolf? Go talk to the families of the people who would be alive now, but for this virus. If this pandemic isn't deadly enough, what do you think the threshold should be? Not long ago the UK government said they thought that limiting deaths to 20,000 would be a good outcome, and there were people horrified that such a large number could be considered good. Now there are over 40,000, more than anywhere else in Europe, and you folk are saying everyone over reacted and we should have let it run higher, faster?

If they were even slightly truthful about the data collection rather than be using it to try and control the population I'd take it more seriously.

I do not believe 40k+ people died of Covid 19, with it maybe but of it no

 

[santaman2000]

One must not forget that it was the Chinese government that actively spread the virus by prohibiting all domestic flights from Wuhan and allowing all international flights. In a way taking the B from ABC warfare ...

That is one part of it, the other is how to respond. If you want to get rid of your grandparents follow the Swedish and NYC model......

Ironically NYC has some of the strictest government controls. They rank with Boston on the East Coast, as well as California and pretty much all of the West Coast. And yet while NYC and Boston seem to be decreasing their new infections for now (if reported numbers are to be believed) the West Coast numbers are spiking despite “controls and restrictions.”

 

[santaman2000]

.......NZ? Small country, small population, small economy and totally unique if you ask me. That country was one that above almost all countries I would bet on having the best results. It's but more in favour of it than almost all countries. Not least a government that works well with a good leader. Take America and the opposite is true I reckon. No offence meant to Americans but national culture and you know who plus a republican party so tied into you know who.......

I think you downplay the cultural differences. It’s not so much the “leaders” as it is the people. The military recognizes the President as Commander-in-Chief and thus a leader. The National Guard, Air National Guard, and the few Naval militias that exist (comparable to your Territorial Army) also recognize the President and add the Governor of their individual state. However American civilians reject the very concept of government officials being leaders. They’re public servants. Their job is to restrain the government.

 

[santaman2000]

Interesting take on the effect restrictions have had so far. Most of this video is extremely accurate however the comments at the end might be a bit optimistic. The bit about farmers shrugging off a bad year and starting afresh next year is usually true but it only takes two bad years in a row to put almost all of these mom & pop farmers out of business (and the farmers in the video are small, independent family farms of less than 200 acres—most of them likely less than 100 or even 50 acres)

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=213688953086634

It might also be noted that part of the shortage of toilet paper was eventually traced to the same problem: the fact that about half the supply chain pre-COVID was geared for the commercial market: offices, service stations, large retail stores, restaurants, etc. when people when those were closed and people started staying at home the manufacturers were unable to instantly shift production from the bales sozed packages of cheap, stiff TP bought buy businesses to the softer rolls in smaller packages for home use.

 

[Corso]

same with stores - we had precious few independant retailers left, only big buisness will survive the next pandemic

o look another one is on its way...

Flu virus with 'pandemic potential' found in China

The new strain, scientists say, is carried by pigs but can infect humans and requires close monitoring.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Toddy]

Does anybody know anybody who has actually had smallpox ?

I don't. Not now. The last person I knew who had those horrendous scars all over their face, etc., is long time dead.

I have a scar the size of a sixpence on my left shoulder though. My sons have none.

We wiped it out. We got lucky and had a really effective vaccine and now our children need none.

Isolation and stopping of the transmission of any disease works too. Tracing the contacts, applying the isolation and breaking the disease transmission, and not introducing new disease carrying ones, works as well.

 

[Corso]

And this is the very nonsense i speak

Coronavirus: Almost 30,000 'excess' care homes deaths

The figures from the ONS are the first to reveal the full toll of the epidemic in care homes.

www.bbc.co.uk

Almost 20,000 deaths mentioned Covid-19 on the certificate, - no diagnosis just a mention...

Previous analysis from the ONS has suggested that many "non-Covid" deaths could have involved undiagnosed coronavirus.

Where is the science in could have...

 

[Corso]

Does anybody know anybody who has actually had smallpox ?

I don't. Not now. The last person I knew who had those horrendous scars all over their face, etc., is long time dead.

I have a scar the size of a sixpence on my left shoulder though. My sons have none.

We wiped it out. We got lucky and had a really effective vaccine and now our children need none.

Isolation and stopping of the transmission of any disease works too. Tracing the contacts, applying the isolation and breaking the disease transmission, and not introducing new disease carrying ones, works as well.

The smallpox vaccine, introduced by Edward Jenner in 1796.

Last reported naturally occurring smallpox case 1977.

The only human disease to have been eradicated by vaccination took its sweet time about it too...

 

[santaman2000]

.......Isolation and stopping of the transmission of any disease works too. Tracing the contacts, applying the isolation and breaking the disease transmission, and not introducing new disease carrying ones, works as well.

Yes but only if you can continue isolation indefinitely.

 

[Toddy]

The smallpox vaccine, introduced by Edward Jenner in 1796.

Last reported naturally occurring smallpox case 1977.

The only human disease to have been eradicated by vaccination took its sweet time about it too...

Ah, Jenner's wasn't a vaccine, it was an inoculation, variolation. It's a different thing.
It was a milder form, cowpox, and that produced enough of an antibody effect that it kind of gave the body a heads up so that when it did meet with the smallpox virus it got into gear to kill it off much more quickly.

As far as I know we don't have anything that works that way with this virus. There were early hopes that having had another in the family might, but I haven't read anything to back that up since.

M

 

[Toddy]

Yes but only if you can continue isolation indefinitely.

No, it simply needs to be long enough that any new cases can be spotted and isolated and their transmission to anyone else stopped.

 

[santaman2000]

Does anybody know anybody who has actually had smallpox ?

I don't. Not now. The last person I knew who had those horrendous scars all over their face, etc., is long time dead.

I have a scar the size of a sixpence on my left shoulder though. My sons have none.

We wiped it out. We got lucky and had a really effective vaccine and now our children need none.

The smallpox vaccine, introduced by Edward Jenner in 1796.

Last reported naturally occurring smallpox case 1977.

The only human disease to have been eradicated by vaccination took its sweet time about it too...

........

There’s the rub. It took centuries to wipe out only to be replaced by the next pandemic of a completely different virus. Then the next. Then the next. Nature is both very patient and insistent. Once we have a vaccine for this one; a new one will emerge.

 

[Toddy]

And this is the very nonsense i speak

Coronavirus: Almost 30,000 'excess' care homes deaths

The figures from the ONS are the first to reveal the full toll of the epidemic in care homes.

www.bbc.co.uk

Almost 20,000 deaths mentioned Covid-19 on the certificate, - no diagnosis just a mention...

Take an average of the last five years of deaths in the country, for whatever causes. Then compare it to the present year.
That difference in numbers, if significant, is the difference caused by the only known present reason; Covid-19.
That having the disease puts enormous stress on many who have underlying health issues causes confusion on the death certificate, did they die of the underlying health condition because they also had covid-19, or did they die of covid-19 itself ?

 

[Toddy]

There’s the rub. It took centuries to wipe out only to be replaced by the next pandemic of a completely different virus. Then the next. Then the next. Nature is both very patient and insistent. Once we have a vaccine for this one; a new one will emerge.

And that's a reason not to deal properly and thoroughly with the one we have now ????