The Covid19 Thread

[C_Claycomb]

Tonight I was chatting to a friend of mine who lives in Hong Kong and works for Cathay. Despite its proximity to China, there are now more documented cases of Covid19 in the UK than in Hong Kong. We agreed that the UK is bigger, and has lots of airports, but the crowding in Hong Kong makes the busiest day in London look empty. Maybe they are not reporting all the numbers...but it may have more to do with how seriously Hong Kongers have taken the threat. Hong Kong has had experience with SARS, MERS, H1N1 etc, and people started wearing masks, avoiding contact, staying way from gatherings quite quickly after it became known there was a new virus out there. Macau has done pretty well too, given how close it is to China, by closing its border.

My friend's two boys have been off school for near on two months and he has been off work for weeks. His wife works in fashion and liaises with many Italian fashion houses. She reported that the Italians really didn't take this virus thing seriously, that they viewed it as something in China that would blow over...were all for going on business as usual. She told them a month ago that they were underestimating the situation...

I have other friends living in Paris and Korea and they are all taking this seriously and are quite concerned. I have spent some of this evening reading articles that very calmly and methodically go through the numbers of what we could be facing and it makes for chilling reading.

Meanwhile, the only threads on here that mention the Covid19 virus are full of banter.

I have three colleagues who are either about to return or about to leave for skiing holidays in France, while four of our companies senior leadership team (after a short but good humoured debate) are flying off for a factory tour in Puerto Rico. One chap came back from a holiday in Italy and was in the office the next day, before being told to get himself home and self isolate for two weeks.

Obviously panic doesn't help anything, but I am very worried that our "keep calm and carry on" lack of concern is getting in the way of taking steps to limit the seriousness of the situation.

This makes interesting reading:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

 

[Robbi]

how seriously do we take influenza Chris ?

what do we do about it ?

 

[C_Claycomb]

My mum and dad are both over 75, dad is over 85 actually, so both well into the higher risk age group. They are the only family I have and I have tended to visit them once every three to five weeks, but if I know I have a cold coming on or going away, I stay away. We lost my great uncle when he was visited by some moron neighbours who had been suffering with flu, but had got "better" a couple of days earlier. Still infectious and he caught it and died of pneumonia. I can think of few things more horrible than being the person who unwittingly carries the Covid19 that could kill my parents.

People say that this is a very negative view, and that this won't happen...but one of the reasons that this virus is such a problem is that some people carry it, and spread it, and don't develop symptoms, or they might be spreading it for a week before getting symptoms themselves. No one can be 100% certain that they are not carrying it.

 

[Janne]

Do you live close to them?
Because the best would be if they stayed at home, and only one person was allowed to bring them food and such.
The more people they encounter, ( shopping, dr visits, church, whatever) the more chance they will pick it up.

 

[Robbi]

check out the figures........ ( last year influenza )

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-flu-levels-according-to-phe-statistics-2018-to-2019

 

[C_Claycomb]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-coronavirus-different-than-influenza-can-be-contained/
“This virus is not SARS, it’s not MERS, and it’s not influenza,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a briefing Tuesday, referencing other coronaviruses that have caused smaller outbreaks. “It is a unique virus with unique characteristics.”

“We don’t even talk about containment for seasonal flu — it’s just not possible,” Tedros said. “But it is possible for Covid-19. We don’t do contact-tracing for seasonal flu — but countries should do it for Covid-19, because it will prevent infections and save lives. Containment is possible.”

"...Covid-19 generally seems to lead to more severe disease than seasonal flu strains, in part because people have no immune protection against the new virus, Tedros said. Flu infections generally kill “far fewer than 1% of those infected,” Tedros said, but as of now, about 3.4%* of Covid-19 cases have been fatal. (The fatality rate for Covid-19 is considered preliminary, especially given that experts are not sure how many mild cases are going undetected by health systems.)"
* a "crude snap shot, might be closer to 1.4%." not fully known


From the numbers I have seen, the normal seasonal influenza has an infection rate per person of 1.3 (8% population) the 2017/2018 flu, 1.5 (15% of population infected) and Covid19 rate is 2 to 3, which suggest the government figure of 20% of the working population could be low.

 

[C_Claycomb]

Robbi,
What is it that you are wanting me to check? We take seasonal influenza seriously enough that there is a big drive to immunise the population weeks and months before peak season.

From The Times:
"So which is more dangerous? From the data available so far, Covid-19 appears to kill more of those who become infected."

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china/questions-answers
"While the viruses that cause both COVID-19 and seasonal influenza are transmitted from person-to-person and may cause similar symptoms, the two viruses are very different and do not behave in the same way. ECDC estimates that between 15 000 and 75 000 people die prematurely due to causes associated with seasonal influenza each year in the EU, the UK, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. This is approximately 1 in every 1 000 people who are infected. By comparison, the current estimated mortality rate for COVID-19 is 20-30 per 1 000 people."

So...that would be 20 times more deadly than seasonal flu.

 

[C_Claycomb]

Do you live close to them?
Because the best would be if they stayed at home, and only one person was allowed to bring them food and such.
The more people they encounter, ( shopping, dr visits, church, whatever) the more chance they will pick it up.

about 45 - 55 miles....or 1h45m drive, depending on whether I start from home or work.

I never thought that I would be so glad that my folks have such a small social circle and few activities that expose them to groups!

 

[Robbi]

come on Chris, don't be taken in by the media induced frenzy, ( just like the media induced recession ...) basic personal hygiene and sensible general precautions will see most of the population through this, sure there is a vulnerable section of society..... in this case the older generation ( I'm 60 and my Dad is 86 so we're both in the "target" age range ) but please don't be taken in by the press generated hysteria ( my wife is a senior proscribing member of the NHS ) chances are we will all, at some point or another get the bug, but for most of us ( less than the flu % ) with sensible precautions will be OK

stay safe my friend.

 

[santaman2000]

I think Robbi’s right about this one. I certainly pray he is. That said, I understand worrying about family, it’s only natural. Take the precautions you can:
-get the pneumonia immunization for your parents (it might lessen the likelihood that the corona virus develops into pneumonia)
-avoid unnecessary social contact without locking yourself in like a prisoner
-practice good hygiene.

Other than that there’s really nothing you can do anyway so try not to dwell on it (I know that’s easier said than done)

 

[Woody girl]

Yes it's difficult to have a serious conversation and if you try you get told you are panicking.
As soon as China shut down I started upping my game food wise, and also dettol and hand gel,ordered a n100 half mask and trawled the charity shops for some good books and cds and crafting supplies. And also seeds and gardening supplies.
China does NOT shut down for normal flu and loose it's grip on the money it's making out of the western world for a bit of fun.
As I have asthma copd and a weak heart having had one heart attack I can't afford to take risks.
I've self isolated since Monday evening.
I'm prepared for 3-4 months of being here alone.
I have the radio and some audio books too so I'm gonna be as fine as I can.
Was looking forward to going out into the spring countryside but I'm going to avoid everyone. People are not taking it seriously enough. Especially those who believe they are not in the vulnerable groups. That is selfish in my book as you may be showing no symptoms but actually spreading it to someone who has perhaps a vulnerable person at home, or who they need to check on.
I have a friend suffering from motor neurone. My daughters dad has only one lung and is on oxygen. She has to work has two kids and a mortgage and is looking after him. I don't hold for his chances at all.
Keep calm and carry on is turning to panic or complacency depending on whether there are still loo rolls in the shops.
I realise it's a kind of black humour but sometimes a serious conversation needs to take place without the frivolity.
Take the micky all you like out of me, but I'm intending be here this time next year. I'd rather be safe than sorry and I don't care what others think.
THIS IS NOT NORMAL FLU.
THERE IS NO VACCINE AS THERE IS FOR NORMAL FLU
YOU HAVE ZILCH PROTECTION
Don't wait to be told by someone in authority. Get your s**t together asap if not yesterday!
Thanks for bringing this up Chris.
Stay safe.

 

[petrochemicals]

Personally I believe corvid 19 now is a means by the authorities to cover something up, much akin to the stuff that was slid through parliament during 9/11 etc. I think they thought to begin with it was like SARS but it has become apparent that it is only around as bad as seasonal flu. They where saying its a cold virus in reality, scarily though older male smokers where singled out at the most at risk.

 

[Janne]

It is thanks to the vaccine the seasonal flu ‘only’ kills that number.

Washing hands, not touching your face and avoiding crowds is a good start.

Wonder how many Preppers will go into hiding?

 

[Woody girl]

So come on if you think they are covering something up. What is it and where is the proof.?
Conspiracy theories are pointless right now. We all need to sort ourselves out and protect ourselves and loved ones.
For instance I've heard that it's a big plan to kill off all the old and sick as there are not enough people to look after them and they can't afford the pensions and disability payments.
Well if that's so they are not gonna get me!!!!!
However it came about, or for what reason is a waste of brain space right now.
Use what you were born with to prepare for a lockdown. It will come too late for a lot of people but it will come.don't believe it won't. They are trying not to create panic by playing things down.
It will be sudden when the government and nhs are in real trouble. It won't take long if Italy and japan and Iran and korea are anything to go by.
This thing has wheels and once it starts to roll there is no stopping it.
It's already rolling.
I've been saying this since beginning of February.
My pals who laughed had to admit I havnt been wrong so far and are begging for info on what to do now. Those who listened are well prepared.
We are not running around trying to find hand gel , loo rolls and beans!

 

[Mr Wolf]

Nature will find wonderful new ways to kill us parasitic humans I'm afraid.
It's not about taking it seriously it's about accepting that once in a while mother nature goes on a culling spree.

 

[petrochemicals]

So come on if you think they are covering something up. What is it and where is the proof.?
Conspiracy theories are pointless right now. We all need to sort ourselves out and protect ourselves and loved ones.
For instance I've heard that it's a big plan to kill off all the old and sick as there are not enough people to look after them and they can't afford the pensions and disability payments.
Well if that's so they are not gonna get me!!!!!
However it came about, or for what reason is a waste of brain space right now.
Use what you were born with to prepare for a lockdown. It will come too late for a lot of people but it will come.don't believe it won't. They are trying not to create panic by playing things down.
It will be sudden when the government and nhs are in real trouble. It won't take long if Italy and japan and Iran and korea are anything to go by.
This thing has wheels and once it starts to roll there is no stopping it.
It's already rolling.
I've been saying this since beginning of February.
My pals who laughed had to admit I havnt been wrong so far and are begging for info on what to do now. Those who listened are well prepared.
We are not running around trying to find hand gel , loo rolls and beans!

Think it is a good excuse for the economys mediocre performance and concequentially the failure to follow through with election promises. Boris I hear now cannot afford to do the northern rail amongst other things, trum will not be able to build the wall.

It is thanks to the vaccine the seasonal flu ‘only’ kills that number.

Washing hands, not touching your face and avoiding crowds is a good start.

Wonder how many Preppers will go into hiding?

the seasona flu vaccine varies wildly in effectiveness. So do death rates
Its worth noting that swine flu was far more dangerous to the middle age group than the very young or old

 

[santaman2000]

Nearly a quarter of this year’s allotment of the wall has already been built (100 miles out of 450 projected for this year) and the virus will likely spur construction to a faster pace.

 

[Toddy]

Walls don't work.
The Chinese one didn't. Troy's didn't, Hadrian and Antonine's didn't, the Maginot line didn't either.
People just go round them, under them, finagle ways through the gates, and the world moves on and the walls become architectural redundancies on the landscape.
On the whole they're a waste of resouces.

M

 

[petrochemicals]

Nearly a quarter of this year’s allotment of the wall has already been built (100 miles out of 450 projected for this year) and the virus will likely spur construction to a faster pace.

Yep, and if you ask a border security guard they will say they need more walls. That however was in the places near population. Trumps fiscal balance could do without building about 1000 of the 2000 miles that are so remote that they build tunnels under the actual fence already rather than driving around.

 

[santaman2000]

Walls don't work.
The Chinese one didn't. Troy's didn't, Hadrian and Antonine's didn't, the Maginot line didn't either.
People just go round them, under them, finage ways through the gates, and the world moves on and the walls become architectural redundancies on the landscape.
On the whole they're a waste of resouces.

M

True. But regardless of whether they work or not the perception will drive construction. Ironically, while you can get around (or over or under) a wall, you can’t get around public perception.