Open question - Financial
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There's a very interesting and unusual setup in the financial markets at the moment. Silver and gold are still under pressure but haven't moved too much since last Fridays big drop. The US stock markets are selling off too. Not at panic sell crash levels of selling but definitely dropping quickly. Crypto has been a complete bloodbath with around 50% losses in over the past couple of days. It seems that everyone is selling everything, everywhere, all at once at the moment. The only thing going up is oil.
I noticed something unusual about silver yesterday too. Here in Europe and over in Asia everyone is still paying the same price for physical as they were a week ago before the drop in spot price happened. But over in the US it's now possible to buy silver for just $10 dollars over spot which is around a $30 discount over the rest of the world. So if anyone is looking for a bargain trade this is definitely worth consideration if you either have friends over there who can take delivery for you or you're willing to keep it in vaulted storage there for a bit then flip it when as silver goes back up (which probably won't take long).
Despite the big price movements everywhere over the past week non of the fundamental factors moving the market have changed one iota. Silver is still in a supply deficit and the metal exchanges are running on fumes. Within a few months, possibly even just weeks, they're going to be forced to tell people/industries wanting that the metal they've bought does not actually exist. They will be given the option to either take a dollar settlement instead of delivery or roll-over their futures contract for another month and hope they might be more lucky next time round (neither of which is of any use if they need physical silver right now to make electronics/batteries/solar panels).
Then hanging over everything financially related is the current US/Iran situation. Will the US bomb Iran this weekend? Will Iran respond by flipping the table? As you know closing the Straight of Hormuz and blowing up middle east oil fields and refineries would result in financial chaos. Stocks would crash, bonds would crash and cryptos would crash. On the flip side of that trade oil, gold and silver would shoot up to the moon. If anyone's interested in positioning or hedging themselves beforehand, now is the time. If missiles start flying and oil fields start burning it will be too late.
Interesting times. (to be an investor)
Yeah, was amazed to see how the price is pretty much instantly reflected in the US, but it's lagging here. I did see somewhere at £85 per oz yesterday which is lowest I've seen when browsing this week, for .999 Krugerrands, but that's still £30 odd over spot. I'd be tempted if I could pick a few Britannias up for £55, alas.
Look who been bitten by the silver bug now.
Disclaimer - Don't take financial advice from a random internet stranger who joined the forum a few months ago and drinks whisky before posting.
Look who been bitten by the silver bug now.
Disclaimer - Don't take financial advice from a random internet stranger who only joined the forum a few months ago and drinks whisky before posting.
Hah! Don't worry, I won't - I've never been against precious metals as a small part of a portfolio (my intention's been about 10% once I've maxed out my tax-free options). Just not into putting a significant amount into PMs, as I am not convinced they're overall better than stocks and shares, rather a hedge.
I don't know if it's been mentioned before (and I'm not wasting any of my life reading the whole thread) but I would buy a bit of woodland and try very hard not to go home again.
Investmentwise...well I'll leave that to my sons to either sell it or sit under the leaves and savour their father's wisdom.
Investmentwise...well I'll leave that to my sons to either sell it or sit under the leaves and savour their father's wisdom.
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Hello and welcome to the forum.
Brilliant investment choice. I think a nice piece of secluded land out in the countryside somewhere is the best investment you could make. Both financially and spiritually.
I'm not sure the value would go up much at the moment but if you like spending time in the woods it can save you spending money on other things such as holidays etc. I can also get plenty of valuables things out of mine such as firewood and if it all goes pear shaped I could stay there for several months if I kept my head down.
Annoyingly, since I bought it the capital gains tax treatment has changed a fair bit so if I need to maximise my return I would have to either split it up, clear fell much of it or do something else.
On that note, it's worth remembering even if an investment is tax free today, it might not be tax free tomorrow!
As I would have no intention of ever selling it the investment would entirely be in my quality of life.
Any financial issues would be for my sons to deal with after I'm gone.
I'm going to make a big financial prediction now. The biggest of my life.
Within the the next two months (probably less) silver is going to go crazy. I mean REALLY crazy!
If you think the rise in silver during the second half of 2025 was big then you have no idea what's coming next. When the metal exchanges run out of silver the price will take off like a rocket! By the end of this next run the gains that silver made during 2025 will look like a tiny insignificant blip on the chart. I think silver is going to 10x by the end of this year and the most significant portion of that move is about to happen in the the next few weeks and months. Silver is about to make front page news all over the world. This move is going to be biblical!
Within the the next two months (probably less) silver is going to go crazy. I mean REALLY crazy!
If you think the rise in silver during the second half of 2025 was big then you have no idea what's coming next. When the metal exchanges run out of silver the price will take off like a rocket! By the end of this next run the gains that silver made during 2025 will look like a tiny insignificant blip on the chart. I think silver is going to 10x by the end of this year and the most significant portion of that move is about to happen in the the next few weeks and months. Silver is about to make front page news all over the world. This move is going to be biblical!
Run around the local running track n-aked as an ape if wrong?
I do think its going to move. significantly.
All the cows are coming home to roost.
LOL!
But no way.
However if you'd like to have a little bet to make things more interesting I'll put up my Helle Utvar as my stake. What bushcrafty item would you (or anyone else) be willing to stake in a bet against me that this almighty price jump I predict will happen by the end of February? (It might take until the end of March to happen but I have to give you half a chance of winning otherwise it's no fun
).LOL!
But no way.
However if you'd like to have a little bet to make things more interesting I'll put up my Helle Utvar as my stake. What bushcrafty item would you (or anyone else) be willing to stake in a bet against me that this almighty price jump I predict will happen by the end of February? (It might take until the end of March to happen but I have to give you half a chance of winning otherwise it's no fun
I think my post #502 indicates what you now think.
I don't think I'm wanting to bet against myself - but if you really wanted to bet you'd have to define the hard guide rails of EXACTLY you think are going to happen in EXACTLY the time frame you define.
Unfortunately as I've found from plenty-of-fish app:- " I mean REALLY crazy! " isn't an exact definition , more the 'feel' of a situation ( or person in that case )
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It's a good video that. Simply going through the exact figures from the metal exchanges spreadsheets and explaining what it means without adding any of the usual hyperbole you usually get from Youtube commentators (or from me for that matter
).Ok lets make this a fair 50/50 chance bet. I'll wager that silver hits £100 the end of February and £150 by the end of March.
No one knows exactly when the metal exchanges will run out of silver or how fast the price will move when it does. I'm 99.9% confident that it is going to happen soon but only 50% confident that it will happen within the short time-frame outlined above. That seems like a pretty fair and interesting bet. What do you think?
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I would not bother with silver, as it attracts VAT and you lose a fair chunk on every selling cycle, plus CGT on any gains.
I think that, in the long term, gold always seems to be a winner. Limited supplies, like platinum it has some industrial applications, and it has always been a safe haven, only ever crashing on 'amazing' times and when the bubbles were going strong with people looking to burn their cash on bubbly things. The foreseeable future does not look rosy, so...
If in the UK and thinking of gold, get physical, and get 'legal tender' coins, like sovereigns, britannias and their denominations; no VAT and they are CGT-exempt so you don't even need to report them. Forget storage options, just buy them physically; why would you trust them to hold them for you? Might as well leave your cash to the bank...
I think that, in the long term, gold always seems to be a winner. Limited supplies, like platinum it has some industrial applications, and it has always been a safe haven, only ever crashing on 'amazing' times and when the bubbles were going strong with people looking to burn their cash on bubbly things. The foreseeable future does not look rosy, so...
If in the UK and thinking of gold, get physical, and get 'legal tender' coins, like sovereigns, britannias and their denominations; no VAT and they are CGT-exempt so you don't even need to report them. Forget storage options, just buy them physically; why would you trust them to hold them for you? Might as well leave your cash to the bank...
Silver bullion coins that are made by the Royal Mint (such as Britannia's) are CGT free and you only need to pay VAT on new silver. Second hand silver does not have VAT added.
I agree. Can't go wrong with gold. It has a much larger market cap so doesn't suffer from the large volatility swings like silver. Silvers big moves (both up and down) aren't for the fainthearted. Gold just slowly but steadily gains over time as fiat currencies are devalued through constant inflation.
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Probably depends on where you're selling. Scrap yard might be a bit suspicious that it's not just copper throughout. Then theres the cost of processing your own down.
I've got a fair weight to weigh in at the moment. Should I be holding off???
It's up to you but in my opinion copper is likely to do very well over the next few years. Personally I'm holding onto my physical copper for at while. At least two or three years, probably more. I think the copper price rise will out-pace inflation for quite some time yet.
We're at the start of a commodities bull market. I expect the majority of commodities, such as copper, to do well over the next few years.
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