exactly 0.0478% for housefire, but people still have household insurance..It is the insurance principle though, you pay out every year hoping you never need to claim, there is a principle in risk evaluation where you balance the likelihood against the effect if it happens. If it is neither very likely and the consequences are not severe then don't insure, if the likelihood is rare but the consequences catastrophic then you do insure. You may never need to be rescued off the hills but if you fall off an edge then you had better hope someone is coming.
The people that say "why do you carry all that", will be first in the queue should it be needed as they will be the ones without anything....