Open question - Financial

[Toddy]

We won another £300 on the PB's

I have an American silver dollar, well Himself has....an Aunt brought it for him when he was a child; she married and American and moved there.

 

[Chris]

We won another £300 on the PB's

I have an American silver dollar, well Himself has....and Aunt brought it for him when he was a child; she married and American and moved there.

Congrats! £100 on the PBs for us.

I married an American but she moved here, so that evens things out nicely!

 

[Tengu]

Thats grand, Id like to buy more.

 

[NotSafeForWork]

How is money created?

Most of the money in the economy is created by banks when they provide loans.

www.bankofengland.co.uk

It's a scam

 

[Chris]

LOL!
But no way.

However if you'd like to have a little bet to make things more interesting I'll put up my Helle Utvar as my stake. What bushcrafty item would you (or anyone else) be willing to stake in a bet against me that this almighty price jump I predict will happen by the end of February? (It might take until the end of March to happen but I have to give you half a chance of winning otherwise it's no fun ).

One month in to this two month prediction and it's not looking great if you happen to like your Helle Utvar.



Seeing a fair few 1oz .999 coins selling for the lower £70s at the moment.

 

[TeeDee]

One month in to this two month prediction and it's not looking great if you happen to like your Helle Utvar.

View attachment 102153

Seeing a fair few 1oz .999 coins selling for the lower £70s at the moment.

( Not coming to Horseguys defence )

A bet is indeed a bet and shouldn't be skewed by any subjective changing parameters.

However I think the recent Middle East action and change in policy is responsible the change/pause in PMs trajectory.
If one reviews other conflicts in recent times ( last 20 years ) its acted in the same way I believe.
Its the build up during normal peacetime ( I guess thats subjective ) that the supports the 'trending' direction of movement.

Happy to be proved wrong.

 

[HorseGuy]

One month in to this two month prediction and it's not looking great if you happen to like your Helle Utvar.

View attachment 102153

Seeing a fair few 1oz .999 coins selling for the lower £70s at the moment.

You should have taken my bet at the time when the offer was on the table. You'd be the happy owner of a Helle Utvaer by now.

When discussing the specific parameters of the bet with TeeDee at the time (see post #515) I was only about 50% certain that it would happen in such a short time frame because obviously we would both have to have an equal chance of winning if it were to be a fair and fun bet.

As the situation currently stands regarding COMEX inventory levels, it's looking more probable that the fireworks will likely now happen in May (historically April is usually a slow month regarding silver delivery's). No one can possibly know the exact timing of when COMEX will have to start putting physical limits on silver deliveries but keep watching this space. Nothing has changed regarding the shortage situation. It won't be long.

 

[HorseGuy]

There are rumors currently swirling around the internet that governments in discussion with Iran are being told that the condition to allow safe transit of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is that they must purchase all oil using only Chinese Yuan from now on. If this rumor is true then it would mark the definitive move that will end the fifty year reign of the PetroDollar. It means the Chinese Yuan will replace the US Dollar as the global reserve currency.

The scale and significance of this financial event can not be understated! A move from the PetroDollar to a PetroYuan signals the single greatest financial event to occur for over half a century (a whole centuary if you include Bretton Woods which is when the American Empire was born). This signifies the new world order as influence and power shifts from the dying empire of the West to the new empire of Asia. Away from that which is imaginary (fiat currency) back to what is real (gold money). The empire cycle begins afresh.

 

[Chris]

Don’t miss out! Bring an element of class and sophistication to your stack.

 

[Stew]

I have a coil of wire that is prooooobably gold. It's about 1mm, it doesn't bubble in vinegar and hasn't tarnished in the decade it's been sat in the drawer in my garage.

Weight is about 6g. It's approx 183cm long.
I would assume that if it is gold then 9ct.

I'm never going to use it so really should look to move it on.

Thing is, where do you go?

As gold scrap the suggestion would be around £100.
As wire, new cost would be £8 per cm.
Quite the difference!

 

[Tengu]

Where did you get it?

 

[Stew]

Where did you get it?

Given it many years ago.

 

[Chris]

1oz .999 coins going in the low to mid £70s on ebay, but now down into the mid £70s even from bullion shops like Atkinsons.

 

[HorseGuy]

1oz .999 coins going in the low to mid £70s on ebay, but now down into the mid £70s even from bullion shops like Atkinsons.

Yay! Silver and gold are on sale today.

My guess is this sudden drop in the spot prices were caused by movements in the stock markets forcing leveraged traders to sell whatever they can to cover their shorts. Unfortunately for them that often includes selling things they don't really want to sell (such as silver or gold SLV) just to raise the cash quickly. Also the Pound has gone up against the Dollar today which pushes the silver price down at bit for us Brits too.

It's quite common and perfectly normal to see a sudden drop like this under these circumstances. Don't worry though, it'll likely pop back up again soon enough. In the meantime for those with a bit of dry powder set aside this could be a good opportunity to make the most of a quick flash sale and add to your position. Or as they like say in the crypto space - BTFD! (Only my opinion. NOT financial advice. )

 

[HorseGuy]

Unless you're intending to buy or sell silver right now does it actually matter whether the silver spot price goes up or down in the near-term? I would argue that no it does not matter.

We know that fairly soon (approximately 2 to 3 months if current physical drawdown rates continue at their current pace) the metal exchanges will have no more spare physical silver available. It is inevitable that this is going to happen sooner or later and when it does the result will be a real world price discovery event of physical silver beyond the reach of paper manipulations and influence.

Personally I don't care what happens to the spot price in the meantime. It can go up, down, or sideways for all I care. Nor am I bothered if it takes another 1 month or 6 months to get there. I'm happy to just sit back and ride the silver volatility roller coaster ride wherever it goes because no matter what happens we'll still end up at the same inevitable destination once the exchanges run out of available physical metal.

 

[Chris]

Well you could say that at any point - at any given time it is always going to be the time that some people either want to buy or sell silver, the fact you don't need to at the moment is good for you but not necessarily so for others. Something to think about when encouraging others to buy in to something.

Personally I see it the same as any other investment in that I avoid short term investments and look at the longer term, and also think it'd be incredibly unwise to put the majority of eggs in one basket. But that's just my risk appetite, each to their own.

 

[HorseGuy]

Well you could say that at any point - at any given time it is always going to be the time that some people either want to buy or sell silver, the fact you don't need to at the moment is good for you but not necessarily so for others. Something to think about when encouraging others to buy in to something.

Personally I see it the same as any other investment in that I avoid short term investments and look at the longer term, and also think it'd be incredibly unwise to put the majority of eggs in one basket. But that's just my risk appetite, each to their own.

I totally agree with all your points there.

 

[HorseGuy]

Obviously if you can pick up silver at a lower price somewhere around to the current £50 dip rather than than up the £80 spike which happened a couple of months ago you'll end up getting a few more oz for you cash. So yes the price point at which you buy in does matter considerably in terms of profit percentages.

However in my opinion, even for the people who were 'unlucky' enough to have bought in right at the £88 peak a couple of months ago that will still probably end up being a bargain low price compared to what is likely coming soon. In a couple of years time if silver is priced way up in the multiple of hundreds of pounds (as I predict it should be). We'll look back on these bargain low prices (even at £88 per oz) and wonder why everybody was quibbling about a few quid either way at the time.
(Again this is all just my opinion and not financial advice )

 

[HorseGuy]

From a purely financial perspective I wonder if buying some extra food now would be a sensible investment this year?

A large percentage of the worlds fertilizer usually transits through the Strait of Hormuz which has now been halted. Even if it were to open again soon much of this years fertilizer is not going to reach farmers in time for this years crops causing lower yields than normal. This means that we are likely to see highly inflated food prices sometime towards the end of the year.

Rather than paying the inflated food prices in a few months time could investing in a few extra tins of food today then steadily eating my way through them over next winter/spring period to save money be a savvy investment? In terms of a percentage of gain I think that the increases in food prices next winter might even have the potential to outperform oil, silver, or any of the other financial investment during the next 12 month period.

Maybe? I'm not sure. I think the potential is there but I don't know anywhere near enough about farming to attempt any price predictions which is frustrating.

 

[TeeDee]

From a purely financial perspective I wonder if buying some extra food now would be a sensible investment this year?

A large percentage of the worlds fertilizer usually transits through the Strait of Hormuz which has now been halted. Even if it were to open again soon much of this years fertilizer is not going to reach farmers in time for this years crops causing lower yields than normal. This means that we are likely to see highly inflated food prices sometime towards the end of the year.

Rather than paying the inflated food prices in a few months time could investing in a few extra tins of food today then steadily eating my way through them over next winter/spring period to save money be a savvy investment? In terms of a percentage of gain I think that the increases in food prices next winter might even have the potential to outperform oil, silver, or any of the other financial investment during the next 12 month period.

Maybe? I'm not sure. I think the potential is there but I don't know anywhere near enough about farming to attempt any price predictions which is frustrating.

Without taking the thread or forum off into other lands

Yes - I think 'reasonable' contingency pantry is a great idea - but for all times. If one can find the space in your home ( Modern houses I think lack adequate storage - even fitting in an Ironing board can be an issue )

Whatever the event - if the normal day to day JITOS global operating system has a glitch or bottleneck its going to be felt somewhere in some extent I think. Not saying that will lead to empty shelves or delivery services and transport being shut down but I think having a small contingency of food to carry one over for those times is a sound pragmatic idea.

Not advocating going mad and doing it all now
Not saying to make the whole of the box room a full loaded pantry

I think it would be difficult to store enough food to make this justifiable " From a purely financial perspective I wonder if buying some extra food now would be a sensible investment this year?"


But between choosing to invest in other things or Food if I didn't already have a small contingency set aside I would feel somewhat vulnerable in some ways.