The Covid19 Thread

[Paul_B]

I sometimes don't make my point clearly enough even if I think I am being clear. Sorry about that. I'll try it again.

I think a post made the point that there's increased numbers of other issues due to the stress of lockdown. Such as domestic violence including deaths due to that violence and suicide. Toddy made the point it is in the hundreds compared to thousands of COVID deaths. I was making the point that domestic violence (except in extreme cases when it causes death) isn't a death. It's a tragedy but it's not causing as many deaths as the lockdown is causing due to stress of the unusual situation and restrictions.

The affirmative to lockdowns is to let it run free. If you did that you'd probably end up killing a lot more people. Elderly, those with underlying conditions, people from black and Pakistani/Bangladeshi ancestry? If COVID is killing elderly due to neglect is likely more would die if there weren't any restrictions.

I suspect uncontrolled COVID would cause more deaths and harm the economy more than restrictions aimed at restricting it's progress.

The last paragraph was acknowledging that USA isn't as bad in terms of government and their attitude towards the virus. America, AIUI, devolves their response to the pandemic to the states and there's often more sensible views in the States was opposed to Whitehouse. But in Brazil it's not got that and their president is doing less.

 

[Paul_B]

I wonder what Spanish flu would have been like if there had modern virology and epidemiology. Basically if they had the modelling we have had to make decisions and there was the ability to enact those decisions. Would lockdown, social m distancing, etc have reduced the impact? AIUI it went 4 times around the planet in one year in times before the global travel we have now. Could that have been reduced by lockdowns?

The opposite of that is what would have happened if the world hadn't reacted as it did with COVID? More deaths but had anyone estimated that? What effect on economy of those increased deaths?

 

[petrochemicals]

Ooh, it bin' renamed !

 

[Broch]

Thanks Paul, all clear now

 

[petrochemicals]

Strict Stalinist communists are some of the least liberal people on the planet I have never been able to figure out how that meaning creep happened. Like the concept of leftist intellectual, they are strict adherends to a very rigid old thought exercise, there is just no room for any intellectual activity within communist framework. When you see "democratic" in a country's name you know it is not.

Just like the democratic republic of china, gimmie chaomaw mao anyday. Hippies that sit round smoking pot arn't usually the motivated type who take power and fight their corner. Usually it stems from unhappiness brought about by economic downturn.

 

[Paul_B]

Thanks Paul, all clear now

I think I had another thought trying to get it at the time of that post but even I can't work it out from what I posted. Disorganised mind at times.

 

[santaman2000]

@Paul-B. The point about the rise in domestic violence isn’t about deaths (although there may be some) Rather it’s about the toll the restrictions are taking on people’s emotional well being. Does that equate to the Covid deaths? No. Not yet. But it’s just the beginning. It’s merely a preview of the unrest to come.

You’re correct that this administration has rightfully left the response to the states (Constitutionally “all powers not expressly granted to the federal government are reserved to the states.”) Unfortunately in the past many administrations of different political leanings have usurped that authority with varying degrees of success. However, that aside, even the states lack any authority to prohibit the people from peaceable assembly. Whatever the purpose of that assembly is irrelevant (shopping, dining, political rallies, protesters, religious services, etc. are ALL protected)

 

[santaman2000]

They were very good at reporting anything they thought was wrong with "capitalism", factually fairly good reporting actually, the comments were hilarious though.

What I miss are the question and answer sessions on Radio Yerevan.

I liked them for their simple matter of fact reporting during Desert Storm. They just said who was where and what attacks were happening without any commentary.

 

[C_Claycomb]

I think I need to bow out before I say something I shouldn't. Discussing the situation in the US is all but impossible without politics getting brought in, so politicized has everything there become. That in and of itself makes me mad as hell.

Good luck.

Chris

 

[Corso]

I don't always agree with this chap but there a lot of sense talked here

 

[santaman2000]

I don't always agree with this chap but there a lot of sense talked here

Saved to watch later.

 

[Toddy]

I think his argument is flawed.
Two reasons.
Firstly the plagues of the past died out when human numbers crashed, when distance and hygience improved.
Secondly, humanity moves around the world these days, in hours, not in months.

 

[Corso]

so you dismiss the who argument because of 2 small points?

I certainly don't agree with all of what he said and you can't really compare historical plagues as the datas not there but where did SARS and MERS go?

They were supposed to be the next plagues and they disappeared in Months

I also don't believe that the virus is as contagious as people are making out - solid hand hygiene and stopping the culture of being forced to go to work when unwell would have managed most of the risk involved in this common cold virus

However my main agreement with him is poor non-comparable statistics and the media pushing bad data has resulted in a pandemic of fear out of all proportion of the actual risk to society.

 

[C_Claycomb]

Unlike some, I don't think that it is a bad thing to over achieve in scaring the public about a pandemic. It isn't like this will be the last one. People exhibit a lot of inertia that fights changing behaviours. We have seen it over and over. Society lacks much in the way of fine control. If you want a quick change, such as hand hygiene and staying home at the first inkling of sickness, it has to be hit with a big hammer. Tweaking the fine adjustment knobs can work, but takes a lot of time, and time is important.

Government. "You need to keep a distance and wash hands, don't go to work if you feel ill.."
People. "Meh, I might do that if I remember, but it doesn't sound serious so I probably won't bother, anyway, my boss will think I am skiving."
Vs
Government. "10s of thousands will die, all businesses, offices, and schools are closed, stay home, don't get close to people, wash hands, disinfect your shopping...be very afraid!"
People. "Oooh, that sounds like it might be serious, I better wash hands and do that social distance thing. Oh, email from boss, he doesn't want to see anyone sick in the office...hmmm...probably need to buy some bog roll."

Tell people that the situation is just a little less scary, and thousands mob the beaches, hold all night street parties, start brawls and act as if VE Day has been declared.

 

[Paul_B]

However pushing the panic button one time when it doesn't really warrant it can mean the next time when it does warrant it there will be more sceptics that don't listen. A balancing act for sure.

 

[Robbi]

However pushing the panic button one time when it doesn't really warrant it can mean the next time when it does warrant it there will be more sceptics that don't listen. A balancing act for sure.

crying wolf.

 

[santaman2000]

crying wolf.

^^^^^^^this^^^^^

However pushing the panic button one time when it doesn't really warrant it can mean the next time when it does warrant it there will be more sceptics that don't listen. A balancing act for sure.

^^^^^^and this^^^^^

 

[santaman2000]

Unlike some, I don't think that it is a bad thing to over achieve in scaring the public about a pandemic. It isn't like this will be the last one. People exhibit a lot of inertia that fights changing behaviours. We have seen it over and over. Society lacks much in the way of fine control. If you want a quick change, such as hand hygiene and staying home at the first inkling of sickness, it has to be hit with a big hammer. Tweaking the fine adjustment knobs can work, but takes a lot of time, and time is important.

Government. "You need to keep a distance and wash hands, don't go to work if you feel ill.."
People. "Meh, I might do that if I remember, but it doesn't sound serious so I probably won't bother, anyway, my boss will think I am skiving."
Vs
Government. "10s of thousands will die, all businesses, offices, and schools are closed, stay home, don't get close to people, wash hands, disinfect your shopping...be very afraid!"
People. "Oooh, that sounds like it might be serious, I better wash hands and do that social distance thing. Oh, email from boss, he doesn't want to see anyone sick in the office...hmmm...probably need to buy some bog roll."

Tell people that the situation is just a little less scary, and thousands mob the beaches, hold all night street parties, start brawls and act as if VE Day has been declared.

The thing about the beaches, or any other outdoor activity is that this far only one, single minor outbreak has been traced to an outdoor venue. That was one in China early on of if I remember correctly.

The thing about the government issuing dire warnings is that we’ve already reached the threshold of ignoring such predictions long ago. In every aspect from severe weather alerts to epidemics, to predictions of financial collapse. That and the culture difference between there and here. When the government makes something mandatory (such as mask wearing or lockdowns, or mandatory evacuations before hurricanes) there will be an instant and substantial ignoring of the mandate here. We just aren’t good at being told what to do.

 

[Corso]

crying wolf.

Indeed

Tell people that the situation is just a little less scary, and thousands mob the beaches, hold all night street parties, start brawls and act as if VE Day has been declared.

If you create a kettle don't be suprised when it boils

The thing about the beaches, or any other outdoor activity is that this far only one, single minor outbreak has been traced to an outdoor venue. That was one in China early on of if I remember correctly.

China led the medical community a merry dance from day 1 (which was probably August last year) I wouldn't trust anything coming out of there

The whole approach has been wrong from the start - shield the vunerable - let the rest of us get on with it.

 

[Toddy]

And yet, New Zealand has wiped it out in their islands, only when some infected person comes in does it re-start, and they got a grip on that pdq.

Scotland could eliminate the coronavirus – if it weren't for England

Scotland may be only weeks away from no new daily cases of coronavirus. As the nation gets close, cases from over the border will become a big problem

www.newscientist.com

To the point about dismissing the argument though; so far this one hasn't shown any sign of morphing into something benign, and SARS and MERS were contained.
This one was too wide spread too quickly.
The speed of international travel has a lot to answer for. The last case in NZ is a a classic, from the UK to NZ, right round the world with two brief stops. Long enough to carry the disease successfully though.