What sort of winter do you predict?

Woody girl

Full Member
Mar 31, 2018
4,709
3,645
66
Exmoor
I love old folklore and have recently been reading about the old weather predictions. What do you reckon this winter will be like, what signs do you see to support your theory,and what folklore predictions do you reckon have legs, ...or not?
 

Lean'n'mean

Settler
Nov 18, 2020
736
455
France
Since the spring & summer were remarkably cool & wet this year (for my region) & september temps are struggling to reach 20°C, logic would say that winter is going to be pretty harsh but I put my money on it being relatively mild but wetter than it has been these past years, wth a few short cold snaps. We haven't had snow since march 2016, so fingers crossed for this winter.
We can't really use the old weather sayings anymore because weather patterns are no longer dependable.
 

Pattree

Full Member
Jul 19, 2023
1,914
1,032
77
UK
Agree, I would predict a wet, dull and drizzly Winter. Here in the W Midlands we’ve had very light covering of snow that didn’t last 24 hours for the last ten years. Haven’t built a snowman for more than 20 years.
I’m not sure that the old lore covers a warmer climate.

There is some science behind:

Ash before oak, summer’s a soak.
Oak before Ash summer’s a splash.

Oak leaf bud burst is predominantly related to day length, which is constant.

Ash leaf bud burst is more related to day degrees; the number of days the temperature remains above some datum that I don’t know. This could happen earlier or later in the spring. Basically is saying early warm spring = dry summer.

This won’t help predict winter.
 

Paul_B

Bushcrafter through and through
Jul 14, 2008
6,305
1,646
Cumbria
I'm in Cumbria, it'll be wet with a little cold because being estuarine area it holds up temperature wise better I reckon.
 

Keith_Beef

Native
Sep 9, 2003
1,387
274
55
Yvelines, north-west of Paris, France.
My money, if I were to bet on it, would be on a very variable winter: mostly warm, wet and windy but with occasional blasts of icy wind blowing in from the north pole via northern Russia then across Europe into the East Coast... another "beast from the east".

This will probably mean that the icy blast will come on the heels of a lot of rain, and standing water left by that will freeze in enormous puddles. Parts of East Anglia will turn in to a skating rink.
 

Chris

Life Member
Sep 20, 2022
860
976
Lincolnshire
I am expecting some more consistent cold this year, for no scientific reason other than I just feel that way.

Have already had more of the lovely crisp, autumnal mornings here than we got last year in North Lincs.
 

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