The Covid19 Thread

[Nice65]

carry on stock piling toilet paper then. you crack on.

Wow! That’s pretty rude. We’re all feeling it, there’s no need for abuse. Myself and my wife haven’t stockpiled anything, we have sensible amount of food in tins, some fresh and some frozen stuff, one packet of 9 toilet rolls and some kitchen roll. Shopping is about to be done online, I’ve been using the Scan and Shop so far, to reduce contact for myself and store staff, but as from today it’s online only or click/collect. Additions to our online shopping list have been offered to neighbours so the van needs to make one stop only. I like and care about my community

 

[Fadcode]

I know we have had some serious discussion on this topic as well as some light hearted banter, and i think everyone does take this seriously, but the question still remains what action can we take.
**Washing hands properly and often,and avoid touching your face etc.
**sneezing into tissue and discarding it properly.
**Keep distance from other people, both for their good as well as your own.
**Avoid crowded places.
**And self isolation.
being the main ones.

The problem I see is in the self isolation, because I am not sure self isolation will do any good at all, unless everyone does self isolation.
The problem I see with this is this, say I self isolate for the next 2-3 months, and it keeps me from getting the virus, the moment I leave my house i am then just as vulnerable as when I started my self isolation, in fact it could be argued I am more vulnerable especially if the virus has become more virulent during my term of isolation. In could also be argued it would be better to get the virus now whilst it is weak, when there is more efficiency in the NHS and probably a better chance of a ventilator, if needed.

I am self isolating at the moment, as one of my Grand Daughters has a cough, so I thought it wise to stay in, which to be honest is no problem for me, and in a way i was forced into doing it, rather than doing it voluntary. But as the schools are closing down today and many parents are left in a dilemna now, about who looks after them if they are at work, especially on what seems likely to be a long term problem, and of course the cost if wages are lost etc.
The other question is, is it sustainable, and of course we won't know this until there is further information about the virus itself, but lets say self isolation lasts for 6 months, how many could actually stay in for 6 months, or not work for 6 months, we are already being told the schools will not probably not re-open until after the summer break which is is September, that is 7 months away. This will obviously cause problems with food distribution and as most of the European countries have closed their borders, and we get a lot of our food from abroad, there may be a problem with quantities of supplies.

A lot of what we are about to face will be down to the actions of the Government, so basically out of our hands, we will need to rely on them to keep basic services going, such as gas, food, medicine and electricity supplies, and hopefully the staff needed to maintain them, same with the NHS and other medical systems, Police Armed forces..
This is one of the few times when having a community spirit will be the last thing you want, as the less people you come into contact with the better you will probably feel, and one can only hope that the vulnerable ones in our society don't suffer because of this.

 

[Navaja]

In could also be argued it would be better to get the virus now whilst it is weak, when there is more efficiency in the NHS and probably a better chance of a ventilator, if needed.

I can see how "getting it early" could seem beneficial, the problem with this idea is how many are infected right now? The official numbers are nowhere near the amount of infected people out there & the official numbers will increase massively very soon, same as the countries that are ahead in the infection. This is the reason it's so important to try & not get it.

I think a stronger argument is get it as late as possible, if hospitalisation was then needed they will be better experienced & know more about Covid, maybe something new will be available for care or treatment as well.
I'm no sure what you mean by "weak" virus, you get it or you don't, you developed bad symptoms or you don't.

Obviously only a fraction will need hospitalised but what if the saturation numbers are already walking around out there? What if you got infected today & it developed into Covid 19 in a couple of weeks time? How many are infected now and are oblivious to what's going on, the folks walking round, the "I'll isolate when they make me" types infecting others?

By the way Corona is the virus, Covid 19 is the desease that a small proportion will developed.

Maybe many are thinking the health services being overwhelmed stage is a long way away, if you follow what has happened in other countries it escalates exponentially & it's probably much much sooner in UK than many think.
The Government are doing a good job of stopping panic in the majority at the expense of a minority still not getting what's coming.



Edit- Look at the timeline for Spain here- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Spain
See how the cases increase exponentially, look at the last 7 days & imagine the UK is somewhere around there give or take, climbing steeply soon.
On a flat graph the infection/desease/deaths will at the end look like a bell (bell curve), with rates growing faster & faster, levelling off a bit then dropping off fast.
Countries are at different points on the climb at the moment with the exception of China that looks like it's peaked & now on it's way down

 

[Nomad64]

...

This is one of the few times when having a community spirit will be the last thing you want, as the less people you come into contact with the better you will probably feel, and one can only hope that the vulnerable ones in our society don't suffer because of this.

“Community spirit” doesn’t have to mean a knees up down the old rub a dub singing along to Vera Lynn songs, it can take many forms and can involve less direct contact between people which right now is a good thing.

I am lucky to live in a very rural community and most of my neighbours are elderly and/or currently undergoing their annual self-isolation with long vigils in the lambing sheds - unless I make an effort, I can easily go a week without seeing anyone other than Mrs Nomad or the postie.

We about to head into town for hopefully the last time in a while and Mrs Nomad has a shopping list for stuff for three seventy somethings, two eighty somethings and one ninety something and other stuff for them and us will be (fingers crossed), arriving this afternoon via supermarket delivery van. No real hardship for us (and a few credits in the informal barter economy), but a bit of community spirit means that half a dozen people in the high vulnerability group will be avoiding contact with dozens of other people.

In urban areas, similar errand running could result in vulnerable people (particularly those reliant on public transport) avoiding unnecessary contact with hundreds, possibly thousands of people or trolleys, bus/train furniture etc where their sweaty hands have been.

I’m not smart enough to try to second guess the advice being given by epidemiologists and medics and am happy to follow where possible, the self-isolation and social distancing guidance. Right now, IMHO “community spirit” means doing what you can to achieve that by ensuring that every shopping trip etc. by people with no symptoms, benefits the maximum number of people and/or helping those who need it set up and manage online shopping etc.

Over the coming weeks and months, community spirit is going to mean phone calls, FaceTime, Skype conversations and other social media contact with people who will be feel isolated and vulnerable and where necessary doing what you can to help them while minimising risks to all concerned.

Whether or not Covid 19 claims more lives than Spanish Flu did a century ago remains to be seen but unprecedented access to communication and entertainment n the internet age is going to make keeping busy, entertained and sane a lot easier.

As they say previous generations sat in tin air raid shelters eating meagre rations, cr@pping in a bucket and using scraps of newspaper (or worse Izal!) to wipe with, while bombs rained down on British cities (and my grandparents house in the middle of Cornwall!), and waiting desperately for letters from or news of loved ones on active service. In 2020, we are being asked to wash our hands, sit at home, watch TV and we are free to bicker on the internet about how many triple layered, aloe vera infused, luxury quilted toilet rolls it is acceptable to have stockpiled!

 

[Navaja]

Just seen on TV while in Europe we've had a mad rush on toilet paper in the USA they've had a mad rush on guns...............

 

[Robbi]

Just seen on TV while in Europe we've had a mad rush on toilet paper in the USA they've had a mad rush on guns...............

yep, I saw the queues on the news footage last night

 

[GuestD]

I see profiteering at large. Remote locations being offered as "coronavirus escapes", starting at £100 per night. I think freedom of movement will soon be curtailed, so the people who go for this will soon be on the radio/tv phone ins whining about how they can't get home. On the upside (if there is one) in my locality, many small businesses are offering free services to anyone self isolating, food/medical deliveries etc, and social media groups being set up to keep in touch with everyone, and also not forgetting those who don't use the web, daily telephone calls, for a chat and keep spirits up.

 

[TLM]

otherwise they do act as a nice warm moist breeding ground

Just a note, vira are not alive they only "breed" inside host cells. They stay viable on a surface for some time that seems to depend on the material. Copper and maybe silver offer the shortest times. Seems to be hours anyway.

Anything that helps to contain the contagious aerosol helps.

 

[Paul_B]

What's the difference between social distancing and self isolation?

One thing I think is interesting, national trust are closing their buildings but making access to gardens free. I think that allows for social distancing and exercise. So long as I'm 2m away from you then we can both walk around sizergh castle gardens or a nice walk up coniston old man.

Self isolation has more images of the recluse hiding away with the curtains drawn. Next week I'm planning on splitting child care duties with my partner. We're both thinking going half time at work is the only fair option. I just need work to agree to it. That's half pay until schools open again. Is shoot creek a nice place for a paddle?!!!

On the positive side, we've got no plans for self isolating only social distancing. As long as they don't ban travel we're likely to be spending our non- working days entertaining our 7 year old in the great outdoors. The lakes is big enough and open enough to avoid other people. Would it be ok for a wild camp? I hope so.

As you can see my pov view is that this situation is so messed up but that doesn't mean you can't keep positive. Look for the positives and hold them closer than the negatives. If that's burying our heads in the sand then I disagree respectfully. We shouldn't let our current situation beat us into depression and negativity. Pint half full with the home bar still serving into the lock in. That's my view on this. Positivity, we need it!

 

[sunndog]

Just seen on TV while in Europe we've had a mad rush on toilet paper in the USA they've had a mad rush on guns...............

Foolish Americans......they should already own all the guns they need!

 

[GuestD]

Just seen on TV while in Europe we've had a mad rush on toilet paper in the USA they've had a mad rush on guns...............

Are they better for personal hygiene ?

 

[GuestD]

And the looney tunes, whacko, snake oil sellers are at it.

Hucksters are ready to try to make some cash on coronavirus cure scams

Alex Jones’s toothpaste and “vital silver” do not cure coronavirus.

www.fastcompany.com

Edinburgh police are reporting scumbags charging the elderly £100 door to door for fake virus tests. Unbelievable !

 

[Broch]

I don't see how that works!

 

[Broch]

I originally thought posting here would give people a head start, a warning of what's coming but realise that it can only be done little by little, a few days ago it was clear some here (most?) were in denial, & I suppose a week earlier I was, the Government is clearly breaking things to come little by little.

We were all fully aware of what was going on before you posted on here to be honest

I don't think anybody was/is in denial; I certainly wasn't. Nothing has changed as far as I can see; the whole thing is moving along the same course as we expected and have prepared for. People flapping their arms about has just created more strain on the country's infrastructure IMHO.

 

[C_Claycomb]

The first person who replied, Robbi, started by comparing Covid19 to seasonal flu and essentially asking why take Covid19 more seriously than flu.

I have met others who have been unconcerned, but fewer over the last few days.

 

[Navaja]

Broch, it's great if you ("we, all" are you the spokesperson?) knew what was coming, I certainly didn't & it took quite some time to sink in & I still feel like I'm dreaming this sometimes, I don't mind admitting a couple of weeks ago I thought it'd all be kept under control & didn't give it too much thought.

One person dying every 16 minutes in Madrid right now is something I definately never thought would happen, & it will probably get worse.

 

[Broch]

The first person who replied, Robbi, started by comparing Covid19 to seasonal flu and essentially asking why take Covid19 more seriously than flu.

I have met others who have been unconcerned, but fewer over the last few days.

Agreed, and, following a lot of discussion, I believe everyone contributing was aware by post 141 when Navaja posted. Sorry, I was being slightly flippant

Broch, it's great if you ("we, all" are you the spokesperson?) knew what was coming, I certainly didn't & it took quite some time to sink in & I still feel like I'm dreaming this sometimes, I don't mind admitting a couple of weeks ago I thought it'd all be kept under control & didn't give it too much thought.

One person dying every 16 minutes in Madrid right now is something I definately never thought would happen, & it will probably get worse.

"We" meant the contributors to the thread in the UK by the time you started contributing, sorry - I wouldn't dream of suggesting I could speak for BCUK in general; we are a very diverse group . Admittedly there have been changes of pace and re-appraisals to the Government's approach but I support all the action and decision making up to now. No-one has a crystal ball.

 

[Navaja]

No-one has a crystal ball.

Agreed, but I happen to be in a country having this happen earlier than the UK, we are all following a similar courses of action with similar results.

I imagine soon-ish London will be locked down with the military helping Police it, if you look what's happened in other countries it just follows the same course. I am aware it's all becoming clearer now to everyone but you wouldn't have asked your original question if you really did have a grasp of what was about to happen back then.

It's the last I shall say on the matter as I didn't come here to ague with you.

 

[GuestD]

Here's an insight as to what lies ahead.

How I'm Coping With Spain's Coronavirus Lockdown

Noelle Acheson shares details and perspective on the first few days in Spanish lockdown.

www.coindesk.com

 

[Paul_B]

I doubt people were really unconcerned, probably choice of words, but more consigned to the fact there's little that can be done to prevent what is happening. You can't stop people catching it in the long term. It's the new reality.

What a lot on here was bothered about was the emphasis on coronavirus crisis. It's still happening this panic approach.

For example an expert this morning gave the useless statistic that 50% of people admitted to hospital were under the age of 70. He made it to push the new version that younger people are at risk of getting it. We knew that all along.

But look at that figure a bit. 12% of the population account for 50% of admissions. 88% are younger than 70 or 58.26 million as of 2018 figures I've found. Anyone care to work out the probability of 70+ vs 70- being admitted to hospital? I'll take those odds and worry less than someone in the 70+ category. I'm in the 40-49 age range where risk of death rises by a very small amount over younger ages. 50-59 isn't much higher than my range. However 60+ gets high.

My point being the doctor tried using the 50% aren't over 70 to worry younger people and elicit a change in behaviour. Project fear coronavirus style. The relevant truth is that estimates reckon 7.9 million hospital admissions according to a guardian article I read. That means 48% of 70+ in hospital but 6% of under 70s. If the 59% figure that doctor is right.

Recent research from one of America's most respected medical research institutions has 70% of 70-79 age group needing hospitalization compared to iirc 6% for 40 to 49 age group. Younger age groups are as low as less than 1%. That's actual observed data from outbreaks around the world, who data, etc. I believe.

This situation is serious and nobody is taking it lightly. But experts being interviewed have overplayed things at times in ways that are misleading, wrong, and unhelpful. Honest information without spin is what is needed not spin and hysteria. Whether that's from experts or wider society/ social media.