Scenario - Make it out

Van-Wild

Full Member
Feb 17, 2018
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On trend with @Sekwo's two different scenarios, I thought I'd put this one out there. In my mind, this scenario is easily doable by yourself or with others and doesn't take too much preparation. I will admit that the scenario does rely upon you having an overnight pack readily available. OK, here it is......

You are at home during a natural disaster of some kind. Main power and water have been knocked out and there is a lot of damage to local infrastructure. So no power, no phone signal etc. You have waited it out for 3 days in the hope of everything returning to some kind of normal, but the government/local council authority has been overwhelmed and cannot provide anywhere near the amount of assistance required.

With resources becoming dangerously low, and with violent crime rapidly increasing, you decide that staying put is not an option anymore. You decide to move on foot to a relatives home some 50 miles away. You cannot take a vehicle, the local roads are damaged in places and criminal gangs have started hijacking vehicles. Public transport is not available.

You must pack a rucksack and plan a walk of 50 miles to a relatives home outside the disaster area.

What would you take? what would your priorities be? What route would you take?

(I know this scenario is very unlikely to happen in the UK, but play along and have a think how you would do it and write your plan below!)

For me, I would take enough gear to last 3 days, nothing out of the ordinary and a lot of the kit I would take is probably very similar to us all for a lightweight camping trip. The way this scenario would affect me is I would leave at night, to avoid criminals mostly. I live in an urban area and it is about 10km until I get anywhere rural. From then onwards I would travel avoiding population centres, routinely checking my phone for reception, until I arrive at my destination. To do this scenario in real time, I would plan a route to a remote train station some 50 miles away, and get the train home at the end!

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Van-Wild

Full Member
Feb 17, 2018
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Why don't you get the train to wherever you're going...

'To do this scenario in real time I would plan a route to a remote train station some 50 miles away'

The train station plays the role of my relatives house in this scenario......

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Erbswurst

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Mar 5, 2018
4,079
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Berlin
I would take my 7 kg lightweight 3 seasons equipment and a few sandwiches and water, start an hour before sunrise and try to walk the 50 miles in one rush.

Don't know the Brits very well but don't expect Germans to become criminal hords only because heating, electricity and water supplies stop working, by the way.

Our towns have hand pumps in the streets everywhere. Berlin for example can't run out of water. Due to the hand pumps and because our water supply works usually on electric power but they also store in place enough of Diesel to pump independently for a few days.

And after the first 3 days the government would issue food because they store more than enough for such cases. I assume that every European state has similar disaster plans.
 
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swyn

Life Member
Nov 24, 2004
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Eastwards!
I live and work in a coastal town when I’m at work.
I honestly believe community would trump thuggery particularly the Polish community with whom I work alongside.
Otherwise I will have to make a two day hike home (40 miles) and in that case I would pack some warms and some waterproofs and head North homewards.
I cross two rivers so water is not a problem and I’d have energy bars plus a couple of supermarket tinned fish for food.
Alternatives would be to steal a boat or follow the railway tracks thus keeping away from roads where most human traffic would gather.
S
 
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about a year ago the last bus didn't stop when visiting local relatives so i ended up walking the 50 or so km back to where i'm working... i had my shoulder bag (which i take everywhere as soon as i'm leaving the property -- contents have been posted on more than one occasion :) ) and daypack with a few extras incl. my hatchet to open coconuts and a poncho. i stopped twice for a short nap (as i walked at night and along the deserted highway) in a bus stop but it took me only until morning... there's one big river which means walking along the coast isn't possible -- because of crocodiles you need to take the bridge. BUT that's half damaged when a tree crashed into it since last june during heavy rains(they even had the president coming by helicopter -- not that it helped much)... there's a back track through the mountains but in the scenario described above i'd probably avoid that as it's the only other route so would therefore be targeted by hostile hominids..

ssoo... i'd grab my my shoulder bag,attach my machete and a canteen to my webbing belt, buckle it and tuck my trusty hatchet behind. put on my backpack with poncho, two more water bottles (no shortage in the jungle but easier than processing), snacks, headtorch and compass and some dogfood, grab my stick, put his harness on Mr Biscuit and start walking crosscountry...
 
D

Deleted member 56522

Guest
An interesting scenario, however, the common perception of how people respond in such a crisis is very wrong and based on the need for "disaster films" to create incidents of tension.

When I looked into actual real situations like this I found two things. Ordinary people don't suddenly start rioting and looting and for the most part people act quite rationally. Yes, if they run out of food, they will take it from a shop, but most people still act sensibly, taking what they need.

The second thing, is that the law enforcements agencies often act quite appallingly and indeed, if you're going to be killed, it is likely by the act of government and not by your fellow citizens. So, e.g. in one case, people had decided (as in your example), that they had to leave their houses and make their way to safety, but the police blocked their way over a critical exit bridge because some official somewhere, with no idea what it was like on the ground had decided "people must stay where they are".
 
D

Deleted member 56522

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I would gather together some of my more thuggish acquaintances to form a criminal gang...
When the officials run the inquiry into the emergency response of the officials, the problem is always "ordinary people acting criminally" ... by which they mean "not doing what the officials told them to do", and never their incompetence: so people reacted sensibly according to their own circumstances and that they took food from shops, because the officials were so incompetent that they couldn't organise food distribution from a supermarket filled with food, which was going off and would be no good if people didn't take it.

And those "thuggish acquaintances" in your "criminal gang". They're your neighbours and family, having waited at home as instructed for days without food, finally going to find if any supermarket is open, and finding the windows broken and people helping themselves (and helping their neighbours and family).
 
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Erbswurst

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Mar 5, 2018
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Berlin
If you lock the glass door of your food shop because you are too lazy to sell your food by using a battery calculator you don't have to wonder if people break your door and take it for free.

I would round up the prices to the full Euro in such a case and make the addition in the brain to get it done fast.
 
D

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If you lock the glass door of your food shop because you are too lazy to sell your food by using a battery calculator you don't have to wonder if people break your door and take it for free.

I would round up the prices to the full Euro in such a case and make the addition in the brain to get it done fast.
Big problem is that large shops are run by control freaks who insist that local people cannot make any decisions. So, even if a local manager wanted to open up, they are not allowed to do it. Likewise, government are control freaks .... who would take six months of "emergency" committee meeting to agree that they can't open the store (to starving people) because the lights are out and people might injure themselves.
 
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TLM

Bushcrafter (boy, I've got a lot to say!)
Nov 16, 2019
3,257
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Vantaa, Finland
50 miles is about 80.4672 km which again is anything from 2 to 5 days depending on terrain. Myself I would just pack and go but I don't think I would have waited for 3 days.

Three basic tactics:
1 Dress in camo and try to stay out of sight, this means not walking on roads and mostly during the darker hours, stealth camping. Slows one down.

2 Dress as a slightly nutty old man (not very difficult at present) hobo look or equivalent, vermeshok bag, nothing new or useful showing. Taking the easiest roads. If too many human road blocks have to take the side paths.

There might be a 22 short shooting gun somewhere and more than a few non-dull knives a boar spear would be handy but slightly conspicuous. Hmm ... maybe there is some point in a makila.

By far the most probable scenario here would be no or very little social unrest. I think most stores would give out spoilable food if no electricity in sight. So here it would most likely just be a longish walk without much hoopla, which takes us to

3. Take your normal trekking gear and go the easiest way.
 

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