Predicting our weather

[treadlightly]

Cast your minds back to November....the air was thick with doom and gloom predictions of a harsh winter. Long range forecasters were saying that meteorological conditions pointed to one of the severest winters in decades, the newspapers picked up on it and there were mutterings on here about about natural signs that indicated we were going to get a cold one.

I remember persuading myself that I could feel it in my water that the weather was going to turn nasty and that slight frisson of anticipation of what was to come.

Well, mid January now and it is one of the warmest, wettest, gloomiest least wintry winters for many a long year! Shows what we all know!

I will remember this next year when all the 'hard winter' warnings come out again as they do every year. None of us has a clue what the great British weather will bring more than a few days hence. I suppose its fun speculating though.

 

[WULF]

We have plenty of time for snow......time will tell.....

 

[Kong]

My mate is a weather man as a hobby and his fore cast was spot on I do not know how he does it but I all ways get a long range report and then a week end report every week and his hit rate is very good

 

[tiger stacker]

We have plenty of time for snow......time will tell.....

Snow on the hills is a good sign of jumper heavy wool to be worn.
Surprised on Friday night, with the sudden appearance of ice. Saturday night was much warmer.

 

[ozzy1977]

Dont we normally get a diluted version of whats going on in the US a week or so after tnem, if we do then the hard stuff is on the way.

 

[Ecoman]

No such thing as bad weather, just a poor choice of clothing!

 

[petrochemicals]

No such thing as bad weather, just a poor choice of clothing!

well I dress up cold when its warm outside.

Was watching the tv the other day and they said sun spot activity is down to the levels of the mini ice age, yet the temprature this year is a balmy 15¤ mid january. Global warming you know. Either that or beings from outer space.

 

[Shewie]

I think it's still to come this year, somebody somewhere recently mentioned that our seasons have pushed forward a month, so if we pretend it's still mid December then I'm expecting a turn in the next few weeks.

I've been following the weather over the last few weeks for an upcoming trip to the Cairngorms, 7-10 day forecasts have been way out. My sources were predicting temps for this Sunday at -9*c to -11*c, now it's +3*c.

The weather is so fickle on this tiny island that I'm taking the long range forecasts with a large pinch of salt now, it's a pain when trying to plan longer trips

 

[petrochemicals]

I think it's still to come this year, somebody somewhere recently mentioned that our seasons have pushed forward a month, so if we pretend it's still mid December then I'm expecting a turn in the next few weeks.

I've been following the weather over the last few weeks for an upcoming trip to the Cairngorms, 7-10 day forecasts have been way out. My sources were predicting temps for this Sunday at -9*c to -11*c, now it's +3*c.

The weather is so fickle on this tiny island that I'm taking the long range forecasts with a large pinch of salt now, it's a pain when trying to plan longer trips

It happened at the end of january 2009, walm december and January, and the most snow we had in 20 years. Since then it never stopped snowing. Januarys 2009 2010 2011 2013 where cold and snowy.dont remember the winter after the flooding being cold, sun spots ! Winter being december january and february, if the seas are not cold by february it won't be getting colder.

 

[Ogri the trog]

Things, they are a changin' that's for certain!

I did a little research into the old fashioned weather lore and sayings and the reasons they came about - I believe they still held true until about ten to fifteen years ago when the "Global Warming" really got into its stride. The weather we get has been a little more severe (rain during the summer, winds in the autumn etc.) and we've had sporadic snowy winters.

It seems to me that because the climate in going through various changes, the weather that we see doesn't often settle into the predictable patterns that we saw in the past. I think that for the foreseeable future we'll continue with rapidly changing weather systems that also defy prediction - sure we'll still see hot spells of summer, snow in winter - but they won't settle in for the periods that they used to.

ATB

Ogri the trog

 

[treadlightly]

Here's an interesting piece on solar activity and global warming.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25743806

 

[Limaed]

I think it's a fairly normal winter where I live - I was out in the Cairngorms last week & the snow line was about 500m with a reasonable snowpack. The Ben is also in reasonable winter condition although there is less in the NW Highlands.

The SAIS blogs are always worth a look if you're missing the white stuff: http://www.mwis.org.uk/avalanche.php

 

[Shewie]

Here's an interesting piece on solar activity and global warming.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25743806

That makes for interesting reading