Open question - Financial

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My limited view is that the holders of real metals bought it at such a high price they cannot afford to sell at the claimed spot prices.
Even the people who bought silver below £30 last year aren't willing to sell. Everybody knows silver is worth much more than the current £65 spot price says it is.

The price of silver did not drop on Friday. Right now all around the world people are paying around £100-£130 per oz for silver.
 
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My go to dealer, never let me down and they have a fair buy back system too.
Atkinsons and Chards are the two of the biggest and best. They are both long established for many decades and have pristine reputations.

Of course there is also Bullion By Post and the Royal Mint themselves who are also well known and reliable but they tend to be overpriced compared to everyone else.
 
As far as I can tell, no one, anywhere in the world is willing to sell silver at the £65 spot price which is the price that the 'paper' silver market says silver is currently valued at. If today, right now, you wanted to take physical possession of 1oz of actual silver atoms you have to pay around £100. Not £65.

It is normal to pay a small premium of a few % over the spot price if you want to take delivery of physical silver but this current size of price gap is unheard of. The spot price has become a meaningless number which, for now at least, bares no resemblance to the actual price of physical silver the real world.

Something big happened deep in the plumbing of the global financial system last Friday. I suspect the spot price of silver had to be separated from the real physical market price to prevent the banks who were 'shorting' silver in the paper markets from collapsing. If any of the 'to-big-to-fail' banks collapse it will likely lead to a rapid and complete collapse of the entire fiat financial system. As in all accounts frozen and no more digital transactions are able to take place. Total chaos!

They seem to have managed to keep things held together with spit and gaffer-tape for the time being. For now the metaphorical can has been kicked down the road a little further, but I suspect we probably came very close to loosing it altogether last week. I cannot prove my claim but this is what my gut is telling at me.
IF this is in the ballpark of accuracy ( and I'm not suggesting it isn't ) its just a case of those PTB kicking the can down the road and expecting those with physical to NOT sit upon it further. Which is pretty much the anthesis of how many stackers act in the first place so is a fairly high end optimistic strategy .

If Physical and ETF related are now distinctly separated then it has become a very much more obvious hide the shell game.
 
IF this is in the ballpark of accuracy ( and I'm not suggesting it isn't ) its just a case of those PTB kicking the can down the road and expecting those with physical to NOT sit upon it further. Which is pretty much the anthesis of how many stackers act in the first place so is a fairly high end optimistic strategy .

If Physical and ETF related are now distinctly separated then it has become a very much more obvious hide the shell game.
Stackers are the least of their problems. They're a far too small a proportion of market share to have any significant impact on the price.

The real problem is what happens next month (or the month after, or the month after that...) when large industries who require physical silver to make their products say they want to stand for delivery. Will there be enough physical left to cover them all? That will depend on how many of the people who hold open contracts for silver set at current spot prices choose stand for physical delivery when those contracts expire.

There is currently more than four times more silver in the current open contracts than there is physical silver in the 'registered' category available for delivery. Lets just say that March has the potential to be a very interesting month if more than a quarter of those people choose to stand for delivery when their contracts expire.
 
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Stackers are the least of their problems. They're a far too small and insignificant proportion of market share to have any significant impact.

The real problem is what happens when large industries who require physical silver to make their products say they want to stand for delivery. Will there be enough physical left to cover them all? That will depend on how many of the people who hold open contracts for silver at current spot prices choose stand for delivery when those contracts expire.

There is currently more then four times more silver in the current open contracts than there is silver in the 'registered' category available for delivery. Lets just say that March will be a very interesting month if more than a quarter of those people choose to stand for delivery when their contracts expire.

From what I was reading (I am an interested observer but not even remotely an expert), this week in the US at least industrial buyers were still only interested in .999 silver rather than Sterling or anything less pure.

Would that not suggest that they’re still able to be choosers rather than beggars at the moment?
 
From what I was reading (I am an interested observer but not even remotely an expert), this week in the US at least industrial buyers were still only interested in .999 silver rather than Sterling or anything less pure.

Would that not suggest that they’re still able to be choosers rather than beggars at the moment?
Industries have to use 999 pure silver to make their product. Anything less pure and batteries, solar panels or electronic devices would not work properly (or at all).

The refineries are backed up and running at full capacity at the moment. They are trying to keep up with the current high demand. This means that (for the time being at least) they are forced to only melt down 999 pure silver and recast it into large bars ready for industries to buy and use. This is why the refineries are turning away anything less any 999 pure silver because that takes longer to refine.
 
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Industries have to use 999 pure silver to make their product. Anything less pure and batteries, solar panels or electronic devices would not work properly.

The refineries are backed up running at full capacity at the moment. They are trying to keep up with current high demand. This means that (for the time being at least) they are forced to only melt down 999 pure silver and recast it into large bars ready for industries to buy and use. This is why the refineries are turning away anything less any 999 pure silver at the moment.

But wouldn’t an excess in demand which was a long term concern suggest that there would be purchases in advance (at lower prices) of less pure silver? I imagine some kind of projections are done about these things a bit in advance.
 
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But wouldn’t an excess in demand which was a long term concern suggest that there would be purchases in advance (at lower prices) of less pure silver? I imagine some kind of projections are done about these things a bit in advance.
Industries know that silver is running out and they have been (and currently still are) purchasing extra silver to store in advance for themselves because they know that without it they will have to stop making products and will go out of business. This is a large part of the reason why silver is suddenly being bought faster now than before even though the price continues to rise.
 
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Industries know that silver is running out and they have been (and currently still are) purchasing extra silver to store in advance for themselves because they know that without it they will have to stop making products and will go out of business. This is a large part of the reason why silver is suddenly being bought faster now than before even as the price rises.

I suppose the litmus test would be if over the next couple of weeks or couple of months we start seeing silver prices creep down closer to spot prices, or if they stick around at the £100 mark. I suppose £120-100 is still a fair old drop in the short term (or more realistically, the sudden climb to £120 was never sustainable that quickly), but those holding their silver a bit longer than planned whilst the prices settles will not want to hold it as an asset for too much longer if they weren’t holding as a long term investment.
 
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I suppose the litmus test would be if over the next couple of weeks or couple of months we start seeing silver prices creep down closer to spot prices, or if they stick around at the £100 mark. I suppose £120-100 is still a fair old drop in the short term (or more realistically, the sudden climb to £120 was never sustainable that quickly), but those holding their silver a bit longer than planned whilst the prices settles will not want to hold it as an asset for too much longer if they weren’t holding as a long term investment.
I have no idea what will happen next. We're in uncharted territory.
 
It's not mega bucks, but it's a constant trickle of profit with no risk. I can get my initial money back any time I like.

It's like a raffle that I've bought a ticket that's valid every month.

I doubt it'll ever give me a 'big' prize, or a huge win on shares, but it's quietly satisfying.
 
It's not mega bucks, but it's a constant trickle of profit with no risk. I can get my initial money back any time I like.

It's like a raffle that I've bought a ticket that's valid every month.

I doubt it'll ever give me a 'big' prize, or a huge win on shares, but it's quietly satisfying.

I'm not -not a Fan of PBs and myself have had a little windfall this month also - But I can't not see its also a way to have funds eroded over time by inflation.

Yes its the ever lasting lottery ticket but it could be improved.

I really do think if someone did the same concept - lasting lottery ticket but combined it with a fractional small bit of Gold it would be a winner for all.

Fiat asset with chance to win small-to-big combined with a tangible hard asset that has a record of keeping in track with fiat financial inflation.
 
It's not mega bucks, but it's a constant trickle of profit with no risk. I can get my initial money back any time I like.

It's like a raffle that I've bought a ticket that's valid every month.

I doubt it'll ever give me a 'big' prize, or a huge win on shares, but it's quietly satisfying.

My favourite thing about it is that earnings are tax free. I’ve had mixed results with PBs, but at least no concerns about handing over half of it to HM.
 
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I'm not -not a Fan of PBs and myself have had a little windfall this month also - But I can't not see its also a way to have funds eroded over time by inflation.

Yes its the ever lasting lottery ticket but it could be improved.

I really do think if someone did the same concept - lasting lottery ticket but combined it with a fractional small bit of Gold it would be a winner for all.

Fiat asset with chance to win small-to-big combined with a tangible hard asset that has a record of keeping in track with fiat financial inflation.

Really follows the sensible approach to investment in general. As part of a portfolio it’s a sensible thing to do. Hedging it all in any one medium (whether PMs, BOE interest rate tied accounts, or on the stock market) is not sensible.
 
There's a very interesting and unusual setup in the financial markets at the moment. Silver and gold are still under pressure but haven't moved too much since last Fridays big drop. The US stock markets are selling off too. Not at panic sell crash levels of selling but definitely dropping quickly. Crypto has been a complete bloodbath with around 50% losses over the past couple of days. It seems that everyone is selling everything, everywhere, all at once. The only thing doing well at the moment is oil.

I noticed something unusual about silver yesterday too. Here in Europe and over in Asia everyone is still paying the same price for physical as they were a week ago before the drop in spot price happened. But over in the US it's now possible to buy silver for just $10 dollars over spot which is around a $30 discount over the rest of the world. So if anyone is looking for a bargain trade this is definitely worth consideration if you either have friends over there who can take delivery for you or you're willing to keep it in vaulted storage there for a bit then flip it when silver goes back up (which probably won't take long).

Despite the big price movements everywhere over the past week non of the fundamental factors moving the market have changed one iota. Silver is still in a supply deficit and the metal exchanges are still running on fumes. Within a few months, possibly just weeks, they're going to be forced to tell people/industries that the metal they've bought and paid for does not actually exist. They'll be given the option to either take a dollar settlement instead of delivery or roll-over their futures contract for another month and hope they might be lucky next time round (neither of which is of any use if they need physical silver right now to make electronics/batteries/solar panels etc.)

Then hanging over everything financially related is the current US/Iran situation. Will the US bomb Iran this weekend? Will Iran respond by flipping the table? As you know closing the Straight of Hormuz and blowing up middle east oil fields and refineries would result in financial chaos. Stocks would crash, bonds would crash and cryptos would crash (even more LOL!) On the flip side of that trade oil, gold and silver would shoot up to the moon. If anyone's interested in positioning or hedging themselves beforehand, now is the time. If missiles start flying and oil fields start burning it will be too late.

Interesting times. (to be an investor :) )
 
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