Open question - Financial
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WW3 looming on the horizon, the global financial system is collapsing, the second American civil war has started and metal exchanges have run out of metal. Apart from that not much really.
At the start of 2026 banks were predicting gold might reach the $5000 milestone by the end of the year. Just three weeks into January and that target's been smashed already! As for silver passing $100 last week...
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WW3 looming on the horizon, the global financial system is collapsing, the second American civil war has started and western metal exchanges have run out of metal. Apart from that not much really.
At the start of 2026 banks were predicting gold might reach the $5000 milestone by the end of the year. Just three weeks into January and that target's been smashed already! As for silver passing $100 last week...
Ok, Yes kinda - Just seemed to have had something more tangible happen over the weekend?
I think gold is leading the rally due to it passing the psychological barrier of $5000 and when gold moves silvers usually follows only doubly so.
Also add to that list of things pushing the price of gold up at the moment is the fact that the middle east might be about to be lit on fire any day now. If the US attacks Iran as they say they will Iran will respond by hitting every oil well in the middle east with unstoppable hyper-sonic missiles. This would cut supply of the worlds oil production by about one third collapsing the global economy and stock markets and there is nothing the US could do to stop them. It's a game of chicken and the world is hedging gold while they wait to see who swerves first (or not).
That's my assessment anyway.
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No single event has occurred TD other than that more people are paying attention and moving assets about. Silver has risen 20p a gram in 24 hours. It would appear that reset of the financial system is looming. ho hum x
I more meant , and I appreciate you are singing to the choir - if something akin to the Basel III agreement had to come into place over the weekend and been enacted.
Silver was I thinking lurking around £100 for an ounce on Friday , Come Monday its jumped up ( just checked ) to £120-125.
Maybe nothing , maybe something.
Silver was I thinking lurking around £100 for an ounce on Friday , Come Monday its jumped up ( just checked ) to £120-125.
Maybe nothing , maybe something.
As Dale says the financial system is coming apart at the seams. I don’t think there’s a single specific trigger you could point a finger at for this weekend. It’s just all of the things which have already been discussed several times in this thread before progressing at a continuously accelerating pace.
Maybe several major banks are about to collapse, maybe the AI stocks are about to plummet, maybe global oil supply is about to drop by a third, maybe the Japanese bond market is about to explode? Who knows what is happening behind the curtain at the moment. We only get to see the results after the fact.
The world is in the 'fourth turning' part of a cycle. I expect we'll probably see more and ever larger random jumps upwards for commodity prices and charts will start to look more like hockey sticks than charts as we approach the end. History is repeating. Only this time it’s a global phenomenon rather than being localized to just one country or single area of the globe. Interesting times.
Maybe several major banks are about to collapse, maybe the AI stocks are about to plummet, maybe global oil supply is about to drop by a third, maybe the Japanese bond market is about to explode? Who knows what is happening behind the curtain at the moment. We only get to see the results after the fact.
The world is in the 'fourth turning' part of a cycle. I expect we'll probably see more and ever larger random jumps upwards for commodity prices and charts will start to look more like hockey sticks than charts as we approach the end. History is repeating. Only this time it’s a global phenomenon rather than being localized to just one country or single area of the globe. Interesting times.
I think that financially speaking the world stands at a fork in the road this weekend (or maybe next week?) with only two likely paths ahead of us:
Option one - The US backs down from attacking Iran or only does a small and brief bombing mission like last time and nothing much happens. This would result in a temporary pull back for gold/silver and other commodities followed by a consolidation period for a while. The stock markets would likely continue at more or less the level they are at now and oil prices will drop back down again. Basically nothing much happens and the global financial debt time bomb gets kicked down the road for a bit longer.
Option two - The US hits Iran as hard as they can and Iran responds by closing off the Strait of Hormuz and targeting oil facilities throughout the whole of Gulf area cutting off one third of the worlds oil supply. This would result in oil prices shooting up by hundreds of dollars overnight causing a collapse of global economies, a crash of stock markets and would likely be the spark that bursts of the global debt bubble. Obviously gold/silver and other commodities would shoot up in value if this happens and central bank currency printers around the world would go brrrrr causing rapid price inflation.
As I say we are at a fork in the road this weekend with two very different economic outcomes. Watch this space.
Option one - The US backs down from attacking Iran or only does a small and brief bombing mission like last time and nothing much happens. This would result in a temporary pull back for gold/silver and other commodities followed by a consolidation period for a while. The stock markets would likely continue at more or less the level they are at now and oil prices will drop back down again. Basically nothing much happens and the global financial debt time bomb gets kicked down the road for a bit longer.
Option two - The US hits Iran as hard as they can and Iran responds by closing off the Strait of Hormuz and targeting oil facilities throughout the whole of Gulf area cutting off one third of the worlds oil supply. This would result in oil prices shooting up by hundreds of dollars overnight causing a collapse of global economies, a crash of stock markets and would likely be the spark that bursts of the global debt bubble. Obviously gold/silver and other commodities would shoot up in value if this happens and central bank currency printers around the world would go brrrrr causing rapid price inflation.
As I say we are at a fork in the road this weekend with two very different economic outcomes. Watch this space.
It's been suggested in some news sources that the leader of China saw off a coup over the weekend, and whilst the mainstream media didn't notice, the gold market did. No idea whether this has any truth, but the publication the (paywalled) article was in is a generally well regarded one.
GC
Signs that Iran are talking about doing a deal with the US. Probably afraid of losing control of the country.
I don't think the US has put enough assets into position for a full country takeover/invasion, but has enough that it could hit Iran hard enough and in the right places to bring them to the table. I think its guaranteed that the US knows the location of their biggest military weapons and how to hit them. Iran would probably prefer to negotiate and remain in power, despite US wishes to the contrary.
US was getting jumpy about the Gold price and lack of belief in the Dollar - I suspect they have been quietly pulling strings to desperately pull down the market price - mass private sale of gold reserves maybe?? Dunno - and/or to prevent any big bank collapse.
I don't think the US has put enough assets into position for a full country takeover/invasion, but has enough that it could hit Iran hard enough and in the right places to bring them to the table. I think its guaranteed that the US knows the location of their biggest military weapons and how to hit them. Iran would probably prefer to negotiate and remain in power, despite US wishes to the contrary.
US was getting jumpy about the Gold price and lack of belief in the Dollar - I suspect they have been quietly pulling strings to desperately pull down the market price - mass private sale of gold reserves maybe?? Dunno - and/or to prevent any big bank collapse.
There was a purge of several of the highest ranking officers in China's armed forces last weekend.
Zhang Youxia: Purge of China's top general leaves military in crisis
Zhang Youxia had been seen as a close ally of China's leader, Xi Jinping.
www.bbc.com
But Winnie had already been undermining, sidelining and disappearing rivals for quite a while. The top military decision-making committee has been whittled down from it's usual seven members to just two: General Zhang Shengmin and Winnie himself.
US backs down from Iran under Saudi pressure which comes from discreet Chinese pressure. US retreats to lick its wounds and figure out how to respond. Meanwhile the **** show of the some 1.3 trillion dollar spend on AI with feck all to show for it comes home to roost. Chinas current lead in actual AI gives them a head start as things rebase. Slow move to remove dollar as reserve currency speeds up as realisation that it just takes one nutter with too much power and too little grasp to stretch and break alliances that have otherwise stood for years.
Or my tin hat has slipped and I disappeared down the wrong rabbit hole.
Would a silver hat work as well as tinfoil? I smell a business opportunity.
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Had to scratch my head a bit to understand that! But yes, very dramatic difference. Presumably silver will now increase in preference to buying gold. Bit concerning about the Chinese leader - last thing needed right now is even more instability. Wonder if the military were pushing to attack the US financially and invade Taiwan while US is focussed elsewhere?
Dunno what happened there cheers.
I think The Man had something to do with it.
This video is an informative discussion which focuses on geopolitics and the direct military aspects of the situation regarding Iran at the moment. They also touch on the subjects of oil, silver and the financial consequences of the situation too.
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I think possibly the other way around...
Winnie had been making too much noise about being able to take Taiwan by force by 2030 and the military top brass know that "People's Army" can't do it; it's all well and good having a gazillion men in uniforms and a million rockets pointed at Taipei but if the men are badly trained and they lack experience and bullets and if the rockets are shiny but have empty fuel tanks, then the invasion is not going to be a great success...
When the Orangitan gets a strop on its very noisy and visible to the whole world. He sends his goons to shoot people on the streets of Minneapolis, makes a big show of wanting to take Greenland (by force if necessary) and abducts a sitting president of a sovereign state, almost live on TV.
When Winnie is unhappy we find out four days later that he's removed several senior generals from their roles on national security and military strategy committees, that billionaire businessmen have mysteriously vanished from Hong Kong, that sales of Champagne, Cognac and other luxury good have fallen by two thirds in response to an "anti-corruption" campaign.
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