Open question - Financial

[HorseGuy]

At the moment the Golums are trying to hoard more, and this is driving the price up.

I feel personally attacked by this comment.

Also me earlier today.

 

[MartinK9]

I feel personally attacked by this comment.

Also me earlier today.

Me too. then I recheck my Portfolio

 

[Falstaff]

Thought that reference/analogy would get some wry smiles. But nobody ever said Golum was wrong....

 

[Toddy]

Well, I won another six hundred quid on my premium bonds this month

I bought me a couple more fancy silver charms for my bracelet. I like the opening ones. The bracelet and charms is now so heavy that it's almost unwearable.

Suddenly my silver collection's an investment asset

 

[Toddy]

Thought that reference/analogy would get some wry smiles. But nobody ever said Golum was wrong....

Did he not fall into the volcano of Mount Doom ?....weighted down with that precious ring.

 

[TeeDee]

The other reason gold is being leaned on is the current and riding concern regarding A.I induced trading appealing to " easy wins " by letting a.i do the heavy lifting. If for any reason it all starts to unwind by being built upon unstable footings the concern is massive financial losses.

Really do think it's worth watching the films " margin call " and " the big short " for an understanding of the 2008 gfc.

 

[Falstaff]

In a doom scenario, or even the pawn shop in hard times, those charms each have an extra value; each is/has a small denomination value for bartering/conversion into something needed, easy to transport/hide, no exposure of total wealth carried. They also have a possible added artistic value/attraction, which also makes it difficult to value by a buyer, unlike a mini bar or coin with a known value.

 

[TeeDee]

In a doom scenario, or even the pawn shop in hard times, those charms each have an extra value; each is/has a small denomination value for bartering/conversion into something needed, easy to transport/hide, no exposure of total wealth carried. They also have a possible added artistic value/attraction, which also makes it difficult to value by a buyer, unlike a mini bar or coin with a known value.

But equally - if ( in the unlikely scenario of doom ) those items of jewellery are by default non fungible
. Making their perceived value some what subjective based upon gilt marks and or scales.

A gold or silver coin in ones country of minting doom ( so " known " ) of any value ( example ,- full sovereign , half , quarter ) ARE easily recognisable and fungible. Making trade ( if push came to shove ) more credible and aligned to a common " known " recognised value "

In my opinion.. the only way to get a real idea of this is to study historic situations globally where society has gone sideways for a little bit before resetting. As it always does.



#Edit. In any scenario where one is trading an item of somewhat unknown verified value - the one trading the item for the other needs to understand their is a metric of one of the parties holding more mercantile or power than the other based upon " need " - do I think you need my item more than I think I need your gold , silver , trinket , kidney.



( From a recent film " $300 buys you a sandwich " )

 

[Falstaff]

Yes, the value is subjective, this widens the negotiating risks and potential, this can of course go both ways, but I think it is more to the benefit of the holder when haggling.
The holder will know the value of it in relation to how badly they need the item being sold, without disclosing how much they need it. Of course the holder still has to talk up and "sell" the value of it to the buyer.
If an item has a known weight/value then the seller can judge your urgency by the offer you are prepared to consider/suggest, and can press harder. Conversely, even if they knowingly hold all the cards, say the last dingy/horse/car out of town, they will heavily discount the value of a subjective item for the risk, but still do not know how badly you need the item, or whether they have overpaid.

This of course still depends on whether gold or silver is regarded as still having any value at all. More practical items of existence might be the lingua franca - e.g. in Gaza I doubt starving families will sell food or water for gold, but might sell a little for a gas bottle, or vice versa.

 

[demented dale]

Yes, the value is subjective, this widens the negotiating risks and potential, this can of course go both ways, but I think it is more to the benefit of the holder when haggling.
The holder will know the value of it in relation to how badly they need the item being sold, without disclosing how much they need it. Of course the holder still has to talk up and "sell" the value of it to the buyer.
If an item has a known weight/value then the seller can judge your urgency by the offer you are prepared to consider/suggest, and can press harder. Conversely, even if they knowingly hold all the cards, say the last dingy/horse/car out of town, they will heavily discount the value of a subjective item for the risk, but still do not know how badly you need the item, or whether they have overpaid.

This of course still depends on whether gold or silver is regarded as still having any value at all. More practical items of existence might be the lingua franca - e.g. in Gaza I doubt starving families will sell food or water for gold, but might sell a little for a gas bottle, or vice versa.

The topic has come onto value. In Roman times one ounce of Gold bought you 200 litres of wine. Right up until the last couple of weeks it bought you exactly the same. How it found this value I don't know. Today it will buy you a bit more but that is only because there is a run on precious metals. following a run on Gold and silver inflation is always hot on its heels. The Gold standard made perfect sense and was a protection against inflation and limited the amount of paper money in circulation. When the gold standard was removed it was quite literally a licence to print money. And so we find ourselves in this situation of unpayable debt and keep borrowing. All the money in world, with the exception of gold etc is, quite literally thin air expanding in a bubble that is going to burst very very soon. Is it good to hold gold and silver in the event of what is coming? Yes, but a good skillset and some seeds might be better. xxxx

 

[TeeDee]

In terms of a middle ground , somewhere between apocalypse ( whatever that looks like ) and a financial reset - the Swiss franc was one of the most stable of currencies because it was tiered & tethered in printing to how much Gold the swiss had to underwrite it - meaning it held a rather special place in the four stages of currency - deflation , stagflation, inflation or hyperinflation.



Unfortunately we have become addicted to deficit spending and deferred payments until the next generation allowing one banker/politician to only get a change without necessarily being around to have to face the consequences.

There is the old saying " a society grow rich in which men plant trees in which they will never experience the shade of " - I can't help but feel the inverse is true of currency fiat banking and incentive lead bonus schemes.

 

[HorseGuy]

But equally - if ( in the unlikely scenario of doom ) those items of jewellery are by default non fungible
. Making their perceived value some what subjective based upon gilt marks and or scales.

A gold or silver coin in ones country of minting doom ( so " known " ) of any value ( example ,- full sovereign , half , quarter ) ARE easily recognisable and fungible. Making trade ( if push came to shove ) more credible and aligned to a common " known " recognised value "

In a desperate zombie apocalypse type of doom scenario which you describe I think it might be risky to barter with a gold Sovereign or silver bullion coin. The reason is if you were to pull out something like a 1oz silver Britannia and try to buy something with it the other persons immediate thought would likely be ‘I wonder if this person has a large stash of hundreds more 1oz silver coins hidden away somewhere?’ putting a very dangerous target your back.

However most normal people have the odd silver spoon or bit of silver jewellery knocking around somewhere at home so bartering with this is much less likely to attract the same sort of undue curiosity or attention that bullion would and hence potentially much safer to barter with. Just a thought.

 

[TeeDee]

In a desperate zombie apocalypse type of doom scenario which you describe I think it might be risky to barter with a gold Sovereign or silver bullion coin. The reason is if you were to pull out something like a 1oz silver Britannia and try to buy something with it the other persons immediate thought would likely be ‘I wonder if this person has a large stash of hundreds more 1oz silver coins hidden away somewhere?’ putting a very dangerous target your back.

However most normal people have the odd silver spoon or bit of silver jewellery knocking around somewhere at home so bartering with this is much less likely to attract the same sort of undue curiosity or attention than bullion would and hence potentially much safer to barter with. Just a thought.

I guess it depends on what ones imagination of a societal breakdown where barter / trade exists looks like - I'm thinking more Argentinian( ferfal) /Venezuelan financial collapse but your point is reasonable. But my point is is you rock up with a silver teaspoon with dubious weight , gilt marks or ways to assay it on the spot - the trader is always going to favour significantly in their favour , the trading value of what one thinks an item is worth is a two way perspective. And yes equally one can say the same of fungible items.

Realistically - one wants enough of whatever it is to extricate them from whatever situation they maybe in - get on a boat , aircraft , last truck from Saigon - not remain to work out how many apples equate to one silver florin.

 

[HorseGuy]

I guess it depends on what ones imagination of a societal breakdown where barter / trade exists looks like - I'm thinking more Argentinian( ferfal) /Venezuelan financial collapse but your point is reasonable. But my point is is you rock up with a silver teaspoon with dubious weight , gilt marks or ways to assay it on the spot - the trader is always going to favour significantly in their favour , the trading value of what one thinks an item is worth is a two way perspective. And yes equally one can say the same of fungible items.

Realistically - one wants enough of whatever it is to extricate them from whatever situation they maybe in - get on a boat , aircraft , last truck from Saigon - not remain to work out how many apples equate to one silver florin.

Yes you are right. It would depend on the situation as to what would work best. A full on Mad Max type feral world seems a little far fetched to me. lol

Much more likely would be an Argentinian style financial collapse scenario or something similar so bullion or anything of a known weight and purity would probably be best in most situations. Although people do still get pretty desperate in a financial collapse so it would still pay to stay weary and keep your street smarts about you.

 

[demented dale]

People can imagine as many scenarios as exist. This coming 'collapse' has been orchestrated and has been many years in the planning. There will not big a descent into chaos. There may well be some minor disruption during the transition but it will be a relatively smooth reset of the entire financial system culminating in a digital currency controlled by a central bank. If it is implemented then we stand to lose whatever privacy and freedom we have got left.
I am just going to keep practicing bush craft, Hell! I might even need it . xxxx

 

[oldtimer]

In the cobwebbed recesses of my brain is a memory of the American response to this problem being the potential use of 22LR as a barterable commodity on the grounds that it was very widely used and of intrinsic value given the envisaged situation. I think resulted in a temporary shortage as manufacturers tried to keep up with demand.

This seems to me a sensible solution in the US context but I cannot think off hand of what could be used in UK and Europe. I bet one of you lot will!

 

[Broch]

Mmm... I'm rich ( if .22LR is a currency!) - well, I suppose that depends on the exchange rate.

 

[TeeDee]

Mmm... I'm rich ( if .22LR is a currency!) - well, I suppose that depends on the exchange rate.

Around 1070 ft/s iirc..

 

[TeeDee]

In the cobwebbed recesses of my brain is a memory of the American response to this problem being the potential use of 22LR as a barterable commodity on the grounds that it was very widely used and of intrinsic value given the envisaged situation. I think resulted in a temporary shortage as manufacturers tried to keep up with demand.

This seems to me a sensible solution in the US context but I cannot think off hand of what could be used in UK and Europe. I bet one of you lot will!

Tea bags ?

 

[TeeDee]

BRICs expansion of additional countries. ( For those interested )

https://watcher.guru/news/30-countries-join-brics-gold-rush-gold-hit-13-new-highs-in-september