I'm amazed this still happens ....

[Chainsaw]

Sort of with you spamel but as influenza is a indiscriminate killer, in fact sometimes the people with the best immune systems are hardest hit as it provokes such a response. I also suspect the death of my wife and kids could have melancholic effect on my bushcrafting activities!!

and I'm a bit with Andy_e on climate change although I would never admit it in public

Cheers,

Alan

 

[BorderReiver]

I think the rise in population density makes pandemics much more likely.

Couple that with the ever increasing greed that makes every country want to "grow their economy" which results in concreting over more of the planet and we should manage to wipe ourselves out sooner rather than later.

Can't say I'm unduly bothered by the extinction of the human race. I just hope the next dominant species doesn't :tapedshut things up as quickly as we have. :sadwavey:

 

[gregorach]

I am convinced it is happening , but i am not entirely convinced it is man made. It has happened before without airplanes, cars and factories, so it may just a natural cycle. 700 years there was a rise temperture that caused starvation in europe. The viking settlement on greenland colasped because they depended on imported supplies, but the inuits that could live with that environment survived. Thats where I think bushcraft is important for the future. If we live with in our natural means it makes a fitter to survive change.

[I am suprised this thread hasn't turned into a row yet ]

So if you were on the jury for an arson trial, with many witness all placing the suspect at the scene, with rags, gasoline and matches, and the defence attorney was to say "Your honour, the last time this house caught fire, it was an accident", you'd acquit?

Previous changes in climate have been primary driven by well-understood orbital variations. There is no such driver operating at the moment (well, actually, the current orbital forcing is slightly in the opposite direction). I'm afraid the science is pretty much unequivocal on attribution at this point (unless you want to believe in magic). The only remaining question is how bad it's going to be.

As for all you folks longing for a flu pandemic, you can all go take a long run off a short pier. I'm hideously ill with flu right now. Is that what you wanted? If you really think the world would be better of without people, there is one obvious step you could take. Try not to leave your corpse lying around though.

Oh, it's only other people you want to see die by the billion, huh? Sorry, don't mind me, carry on with your genocidal fantasies... I'll just go hack up a lung.

 

[andy_e]

So is it Burd-flu or Man-flu? Get well soon gregorach.

 

[spamel]

Of course i don't want you to die of flu, I'd rather the prisons burden was eased by a few inmates dying, then maybe some of the chavs, neds and scrotes! And landowners! Don't forget the landowners!

As to climate change, I have no doubt in my mind that the planet would be warming up whether we had fossil fuel burning machines or not. What I am concerned about is the rate at which it is happening. It is being sped up by the introduction of CO2 emmissions from exhausts on motor transport. There is some thought that the catalytic convertors on cars may be causing more harm than good!

 

[andy_e]

I seem to remember reading somewhere that a cow/horse produces more "greenhouse" gas per year than an average car does now. Then again I can't chomp down on a tasty fillet of Volvo can I

 

[spamel]

Can't wait to see the first cow fitted with a catalytic convertor! YOWCH!!

 

[xylaria]

I knew I spoke too soon, it is like when when it is sunny and rain is forcast and someone says "ohh it's nice and sunny isn't this nice" you know full well that they have now cursed the weather and it going to bucket down.

The night time temperature over the US cooled down markedly after September 11th when the internal flights were grounded. Air traffic produces a type of cloud that hold in heat. Ideas on what dust in the atmosphere do to global temperatures seem to have some inconsistency whether they cool or warm up the planet. There is reasonable scientific evidence for man made global warming, but for as a court of law, if i was on jury I would feel the case is not proved beyond reasonable doubt as there is some reasonable scientific evidence that climate change maybe natural and climate science is too young say we fully understand all factors effecting climate.

I personally have some doubts on man made climate change but I have no doubt that as species we have screwed up this planet royally. If man made climate change is what is required as a belief to make this planet cleaner than have no objections to it. To say it is absolute scientific truth and beyond question, feel i would be lying. I can't prove evolution beyond reasonable doubt either, that is why it is still referred to as a theory, but i not going to abandon all reason and say i don't believe in dinosaurs. The climate is changing, we have stuffed up the planet, but the link between the two is not proven beyond all reasonable doubt.

I hope you get better soon Gregorach.

 

[andy_e]

... I can't prove evolution beyond reasonable doubt either, that is why it is still referred to as a theory...

Just to make sure we don't go off on another tangent: Evolutionary Theory is so called because whatever anyone's personal beliefs may be, there is evidence for it - otherwise it would be the Evolutionary Hypothesis - it's a semantic error often made by flat-earthers and the like

 

[gregorach]

There is reasonable scientific evidence for man made global warming, but for as a court of law, if i was on jury I would feel the case is not proved beyond reasonable doubt as there is some reasonable scientific evidence that climate change maybe natural and climate science is too young say we fully understand all factors effecting climate.

It's not an either / or question - that's the fallacy of single causation. There are numerous different factors in constant interaction. But there is absolutely no viable scientific question about the general impact of of varying atmospheric CO2 levels, nor is there any real question that we do have really quite a good understanding of the main drivers of global climate.

If somebody wants to argue against the idea that anthropogenic GHG emissions are the main current driver of climate change, it's not enough to propose some magical new climate driver - you also have to explain why all the GHGs we've emitted in the last 150 years are different from any other GHGs emitted from any other source. The basic science of radiative absorption is easily demonstrated in the lab, and has been well understood for over 100 years. And we can measure the global effects directly from space.

I can't prove evolution beyond reasonable doubt either, that is why it is still referred to as a theory, but i not going to abandon all reason and say i don't believe in dinosaurs.

Excuse me, my head's just exploded. The word "theory", when used in a scientific context, does not mean "hunch" or "guess" or "suspicion", it means "a comprehensive explanation of an important feature of nature that is supported by many facts gathered over time."

Thank you all for your get-well wishes. I'm afraid it's neither man-flu nor bird-flu, but actual proper flu. Still, at least the delirium stage seems to have passed...

 

[firecrest]

Gregorach you're just sour grapes cos its you that caught the pandemic and not us. ;-)

well...in the interest of self-preservation everybody has mentality of "I hope it isnt me" even if its hard to admit to. But that is what I would be comfortable with a pandemic though - it IS indiscriminate and there is nobody to blame. I know somebody else said they didnt like it because it was indiscriminate, funny how everybody is different!
But we shouldnt be complacent. In england we reply on imported food, we would be seriously hard hit. Not only that but don't think the general population will lay down and die because they dont have bushcraft skills, I think we'd find that the populace buck up their act pretty quick. Within a matter of months all edible stables available will be gone - both food in the shops, live stock, pets , wildlife, plants. what would be left would not be found in abundance, and if it were youd have to be damned careful nobody else saw you finding it, digging it up, carrying it ect...
yes a post-apocalyptic world would not be fun. well maybe a little bit fun if you and your loved ones escaped the flu and found somewhere isolated with food stuffs but thats a slim chance!

 

[galew]

It's not an either / or question - that's the fallacy of single causation. There are numerous different factors in constant interaction. But there is absolutely no viable scientific question about the general impact of of varying atmospheric CO2 levels, nor is there any real question that we do have really quite a good understanding of the main drivers of global climate.

If somebody wants to argue against the idea that anthropogenic GHG emissions are the main current driver of climate change, it's not enough to propose some magical new climate driver - you also have to explain why all the GHGs we've emitted in the last 150 years are different from any other GHGs emitted from any other source. The basic science of radiative absorption is easily demonstrated in the lab, and has been well understood for over 100 years. And we can measure the global effects directly from space.

I just read, that man (including forest fires) emissions of CO2 is only 3 % of the total. NASA now is saying that Mars and Jupiter are also warming, Could it have something to do with the SUN??

 

[Pict]

"The night time temperature over the US cooled down markedly after September 11th when the internal flights were grounded."

I would think after September 11th the daytime temps cooled off significantly in the US as well. It is a predictable consequence after every terrorist attack in early Fall.

As George Carlin said, "Tonights forecast...Dark, with widely scattered light in the morning." If those nasty Canadians would just keep all their cold air from spilling, uninvited, over our border we would burn much less fossil fuels.

Mac

 

[xylaria]

Aircraft create water vapour and deposit exhaust into the atmosphere (contrails). These disperse and can create a whispy type of cloud that retain the day heat at night. Quite simply remove the aircraft and earth will cool. It is well known that night time temperatures of deserts are cooler due to the lack of cloud cover, it is the same type of effect with aircraft. Saying that climate like alot other things is a very complex system, it would be wrong to just blame aircraft, CO2, the sun, cow farts, deforestation or volcanos. We should really stop making a mess of this planet though pretty quickly.

I cast doubt on politicisation of science into dogma, but that doesn't mean that you can all jump in your 4x4s an keep on using up the planets resources and think everything will be fine. It won't.