The Scientist
Virus specifications:- RNA virus H5eN1. Time from initial infection to first symptom 2-3 weeks. Initial symptoms mild runny nose and sore throat, lasting 3 weeks. Aggressive stage initially fevers, cough, muscle aches, fast pulse, progressing in 100% of known cases to shortness of breath, confusion, coma, fits, bleeding, vomitting and diarrhoea. Death occurs within 3 days of onset of aggressive stage, while in deep coma from lung failure. Infectivity high. Onset of shedding virus from 3 days from initial infection and therefore 1.5 to 2.5 weeks prior to the first symptom. Chronic carrier status - incidence unknown but probably very high, only one patient has survived the illness and continued to shed live virus for as long as tested which was 4 weeks. Infective dose tests suggest that a single inhaled virus particle has a 50% chance of causing the infection and of 10 virus particles 99.9% chance of infection. Mode of transmission droplets of saliva. A person speaking continuously was measured as shedding 100,000 virus particles in droplets for every "t", "k", and "p" they uttered. Half life of isolated virus particle 48 hours. This was shortened by UV light, and prolonged by humidity. Availability of vaccine none proven to work. Trials of the best vaccine so far had prolonged the illness by 1 week but the outcome was the same in the 1347 volunteers so far to have shown to have contacted the virus. Susceptibility humans, pigs, and 5 of 25 species of birds so far tested.
Dr. Jane Caspen, head of the Virology Section in the select few allocated a place in government bunker GB2 at an undisclosed location in Southern England, pondered this statement on her computer screen as she breathed the filtered air for a long time that morning. These details had been collected from 100s of scientists around the world over the previous 3 months. Many of those scientists were now dead. By the time the first bird flue case had been properly diagnosed in Surinam prior to death probably 10,000 people had been infected, 300 in other countries. As every day had past more and more people had been infected. Countries all over the world had mounting deaths. 98% had shut their borders withing 2 weeks, but it was far too late. The cat was well and truly out of the bag. England had been hit early and hard. No one had detected human life outside of the five registered government UK bunkers for two months now.
Her eyes flicked to the computer modelling programme "Little World 4.2" - the best, and fastest in Europe. It had been programmed with highly accurate population databases of every country, island and land mass in the world including age/ sex, rates of growth. She and her colleagues had input detailed estimates of population behaviour, routine travel, projected behaviours, wind and climate details, alongside virus characteristics. It displayed a world map with population numbers at any given day. Over the previous week her computer colleagues had also been able to add bird migration statistics to the programme. The computer gave no reaction to the screamingly mind numbing figures and graphs that it displayed. A click on the mouse moved the map forwards another day. Beyond 60 clicks and the numbers stabilised at about 2,500,000 worldwide. Most in scattered island communities across the Pacific. Another 90 clicks and the screen froze. A message box appeard on the screen "Divided by zero. Cannot have negative total world population, restart programme and re-configure parameters"
Even the isolated communities were vulnerable because of the cross species transmission, bird migration of susceptible species, and the long carrier status of survivors. Some virus could even travel on the wind according to the models. Jane new the computer was not perfect. If you have carriers you can't have a negative world population. That was daft. But the general message was clear.
Jane thought for a while. Then changed a couple of variables. See put the issues to her progammer colleagues. The next day they ran the programme again. Same error! 100% mortality could not be proved statistically. There must be a margin of error surely. She spent another day of precious resources fuel, food and water, in total 6 months available in the bunker for 50 staff - reviewing all the mortality data. She changed the figure to 99.95%. This time the programme steadied to 5,000,000 worldwide at 60 clicks and steadied to 100,000 at 90 clicks. She rolled it on 5 years - 30,000. 10 years - 32,000.
Was that it? The best estimate? We would survive, and multiply to inherit the earth again? But only just. And in the early years most of the survivors would not make it ultimately or produce children. She looked at how the computer modelled the first 5 years. The shocking truth was worse. The virus was still in circulation and while children were born, they too died of the virus. Only after 10 years from the calamity might the world finally be rid of the virus. Maybe. Based on a lot of guesswork. And if the virus mutated to infect more species then no-one could predict when the virus would finally stop circulating.
She was exhausted. Three months of non stop analysis had come to this. What was the point? Saved from the virus in order sit and watch it do its absolute and total worst. Thank God death was for most probably painless while in coma. No other reason to thank Him.
Her train of thought had run into a wall, so she looked down at what was on her pad. Jane was a doodler. In amongst regular hexagons and other geometric patterns, were flowers and birds. The latter were drawn harshly and with deep pen indentations into the paper. In one corner was written in her own hand "Save the children". She looked at this for a while. Yes. Perhaps she could continue her work if there was a possibility that it could be done.
Jane did another set of searches of the huge database. In the early hours of the morning she came across a report of from three months ago of a new born baby in New Zealand. Born to a rhesus negative mother is was jaundiced and very anaemic. It had received an emergency blood transfusion from its father. Within days the mother had died from the flu but both father and baby were well with no symptoms. Jane checked something. Yes, the father was on a small list of unconfirmed reports of not contracting the virus after exposure. The records only reported on the child up to six weeks so the long term outcome was unknown. But this length of time was suggestive that more than just short lived antibodies had been transferred, and that some factor had stimulated the baby's own immunity.
There was then a glimmer of hope that with time and resources a way may be found to protect new born babies from the illness. But Jane did not have that time. Already three months had elapsed since "Door Seal". Only 92 days left. Across the world similar establishments had already openned their doors and within weeks contact had been lost as the staff fell ill and died. What she needed was some human guinea pigs who had survived, and she needed there blood. She needed several if possible who might have survived for different unknown reasons. They needed to remain local to the laboratory but not contaminate the staff. And she needed to be in contact with them while taking regular blood tests and swabs. But if she did that she would die unless protected in some way. That left two options. Firstly, to remain in the secure facility and go out in pressurised suits regularly while risking suit puncture and death. But unless new resources could be brought and decontaminated then she and her colleagues could only continue for three months. Secondly to rely on an untried technique during this emergency receive carefully purified concentrates of survivor's blood plasma hopefully packed with short lived protective antibodies. These would need topping up on a weekly basis. It would be far too risky to receive a full blood transfusion, like that far off baby had, until much more was known. Also she would need at least some of her colleagues to support her. They would also need the same protection to be able to leave the secure facility or continue beyond the three months. And it could easily all take 6 to 12 months or more to come up with anything positive.
Added to all that was the lack of evidence for two months now that there were any survivors to test, or receive life giving blood samples and decontaminated supplies from. And, would they co-operate?
