Open question - Financial

[Falstaff]

A long while, their reserve is humongous, much larger than the US or anybody else.
Plus, they are still buying in from Brazil and other countries, presumably at long term favourable rates. A decent chunk of their sales are to their BRIC members e.g. Nigeria, so that they are not hit as hard by the Hormuz issues, and buying indebtedness & goodwill..

I guess their reserves envisaged potentially being cut off from the rest of the world supply if they upset someone with their territorial ambitions. Right now that is not likely, nobody's got any munitions to spare. So, cannily taking a quick profit on reserves bought at much lower prices.

 

[HorseGuy]

My assesment of oil over the past few days:

- Trump tweets that they are near to reaching a deal with Iran (again ).
- Oil immediately drops back down (again ).
- Iran denys Trump's deal claim (again ).
- The IRGC continue to shoot and hit any oil tanker which try to pass without paying a toll.
- The mainstream media paints a rosy picture of the situation.
- Still no ships are exiting the straight.

This is not financial advice for anyone else. You need to do you own research and make you own decisions. But in my opinion I think this could be a good time to buy some more oil at $80 and setup a top-limit order to automatically sell it at $98.

 

[TeeDee]

My assesment of oil over the past few days:

- Trump tweets that they are near to reaching a deal with Iran (again ).
- Oil immediately drops back down (again ).
- The Iran denys Trump's deal claim (again ).
- The IRGC continues to shoot and hit any oil tanker which try to pass without paying a toll.
- The mainstream media paints a rosy picture of the situation.
- Still no ships are exiting the straight.

This is not financial advice for anyone else. You need to do you own research and make you own decisions. But in my opinion I think this could be a good time to buy some more oil at £80 and setup a top-limit order to automatically sell it at £98 dollars.

£98 dollars.


£
$

 

[Sooty22]

My assesment of oil over the past few days:

- Trump tweets that they are near to reaching a deal with Iran (again ).
- Oil immediately drops back down (again ).
- The Iran denys Trump's deal claim (again ).
- The IRGC continues to shoot and hit any oil tanker which try to pass without paying a toll.
- The mainstream media paints a rosy picture of the situation.
- Still no ships are exiting the straight.

This is not financial advice for anyone else. You need to do you own research and make you own decisions. But in my opinion I think this could be a good time to buy some more oil at £80 and setup a top-limit order to automatically sell it at £98 dollars.

Put it this way. The Iranians would rather Trump lost control in the mid-terms, and that means they will continue hitting, every time oil drops, to ensure the American public will be hurting at the pump.
So, until November the 3rd, oil will be going up and down faster than the proverbial knickers. If it was entirely up to Iran, it would probably be constantly well into the hundreds, perhaps the upper hundreds. But there are reserves, and high prices kill some of the demand.
The question is until when can the temporary measures continue being effective.
Either way, 80 is cheap and a good time to buy an ETF, then sell immediately when it hits 100ish -since Trump will start tweeting again...
Keep in mind Brent futures are priced for delivery in the second calendar month ahead, so -with the current conditions and a hope of de-escalation- Brent futures drop on the 1st trading day of a month, and -given no light at the end of the tunnel- increase towards the end of the month (as the timeline for delivery is tightening).

 

[HorseGuy]

£98 dollars.


£
$

View attachment 104352

Erm...
Yeah I meant $$$$$$

 

[HorseGuy]

Put it this way. The Iranians would rather Trump lost control in the mid-terms, and that means they will continue hitting, every time oil drops, to ensure the American public will be hurting at the pump.
So, until November the 3rd, oil will be going up and down faster than the proverbial knickers. If it was entirely up to Iran, it would probably be constantly well into the hundreds, perhaps the upper hundreds. But there are reserves, and high prices kill some of the demand.
The question is until when can the temporary measures continue being effective.
Either way, 80 is cheap and a good time to buy an ETF, then sell immediately when it hits 100ish -since Trump will start tweeting again...
Keep in mind Brent futures are priced for delivery in the second calendar month ahead, so -with the current conditions and a hope of de-escalation- Brent futures drop on the 1st trading day of a month, and -given no light at the end of the tunnel- increase towards the end of the month (as the timeline for delivery is tightening).

I agree 100%. It is a gamble of course. Maybe our assessment is wrong and Trump really has set up the bestist ever deal in the history of deals and Israel and Iran will be sat around the campfire singing "Kum ba yah" together by Christmas time.

But I doubt it somehow and I'm willing to bet that I'll probably make 22.5% profit on that trade within a month or two.