What if? What if oil ran out tomorrow?

[hanzo]

To me, long story short, we would adapt, get by, and create a better way. Why? Because we would have to. It may not be comfortable and it may not be super fast, but we would get it done. And it would probably be done fast enough to surprise many.

I have faith in us.

 

[twisted firestarter]

A small point worth noting concerning horses. If you use the food a horse eats each year to make biodiesel (rather than feeding the horse) you'll be able to make enough biodiesel to power a tractor which will do 10 times the work of the horse.

I'm not trying to doubt your claim BB but do you mind if I ask where you discovered that fact? I find it staggering

 

[Martyn]

I'm not trying to doubt your claim BB but do you mind if I ask where you discovered that fact? I find it staggering

Well here is some data....

One hectare of rapeseed yeilds 2702kg of seed, which yeilds 1000kg of oil, or 1190 litres.
Source

The massey Ferguson 4355 consumes 20 litres an hour.
Source

So you can run the MF4355 for 59.5 hours from one hectare of rapeseed.

An average 1000 lb horse would need 10 to 12 kilograms of feed a day. Most of that should be hay. A typical diet for a horse being ridden for one hour five days a week would be 1 to 2 kilograms of grain and 6 to 9 kilograms of hay a day.

You get approximately 5 tonnes of hay per hectare, enough to feed a horse for 500 days (one hours work per day).

 

[pothunter]

Not been following this thread but with the threat of terrorism perhaps the detonation of a series of EMP devise would be far more frightening, we would loose the use of very nearly all electrical equipment instantly. Airplanes would fall from the skies!

Pothunter.

 

[lofthouse31]

so buy a tractor and eat the horse then, the belgian strategy, i like it.
come shergar your numbers up mate

 

[dave k]

Not been following this thread but with the threat of terrorism perhaps the detonation of a series of EMP devise would be far more frightening, we would loose the use of very nearly all electrical equipment instantly. Airplanes would fall from the skies!

Pothunter.

That's why I have my tin-foil hat. They mocked me when they saw it, but I will have the last laugh in the end

 

[pothunter]

Don't forget the lead underpants

 

[Karl5]

Why, for want of oil we would of course burn petrol or kerosene instead.
Wouldn't we?

 

[gregorach]

Well here is some data....

One hectare of rapeseed yeilds 2702kg of seed, which yeilds 1000kg of oil, or 1190 litres.
Source

The massey Ferguson 4355 consumes 20 litres an hour.
Source

So you can run the MF4355 for 59.5 hours from one hectare of rapeseed.

Except that biodiesel has only about 80% of the energy density of petrodiesel.

20 L petrodiesel = 774 MJ = 25.35L biodiesel Source

So your 1190 L of biodiesel only runs your tractor for 46.9 hours.

Oh, and the yield of the transesterification process is about 97%, not 100%, so you don't get as much biodiesel as you might think. Unless you're running on SVO...

 

[BobG]

Except that biodiesel has only about 80% of the energy density of petrodiesel.

20 L petrodiesel = 774 MJ = 25.35L biodiesel Source

So your 1190 L of biodiesel only runs your tractor for 46.9 hours.

Oh, and the yield of the transesterification process is about 97%, not 100%, so you don't get as much biodiesel as you might think. Unless you're running on SVO...

The tractor Martin cited could probably plough an acre in ten minutes or less. This would take a team of 5 heavy horses over an hour. Horses can only work so many hours per day and need feeding when sick or when not working. Even when you factor in the energy needed to build the tractor they are still many times more efficient (and produce less pollutants) than a horse.

 

[gregorach]

Well, I'm possibly prepared to accept the efficiency argument (given a full lifecycle analysis)... But pollutants? The horse is just circulating carbon and nutrients that are in the biosphere anyway. It's not hauling up carbon that's been in geological sequestration for the last few hundred million years. Everything the horse produces (including its corpse) will be recycled naturally in fairly short timescales.

 

[BobG]

A horse produces about 100kg of methane per year, equivalent to 2.5 tonne of carbon dioxide when considering it as a greenhouse gas.

 

[Mirius]

Fuel is not the only factor, horses are a relatively renewable resource that don't require a sophisticated infrastructure to produce. This doesn't automatically outweigh their relative inefficiency.

 

[gregorach]

Yeah, but like I said, it's from carbon that's in the biosphere (or more correctly, the active carbon cycle) anyway. It's constantly bouncing around from one form to another, so while one particular step in the cycle can look like a forcing when isolated, it only looks like a forcing over a fairly short timescale, and it neglects the fact that other processes are occurring in the opposite direction. This is why biofuels are generally regarded as carbon neutral - overall, the rates of absorption and release are in balance.

Digging up carbon from the long-term geological carbon cycle and dumping it back into the active carbon cycle is a completely different matter. That's carbon that's been out of circulation for hundreds of millions of years, and was going to be out of circulation for hundreds of millions more.

 

[Variant 13]

Bring it on... The planet is currently overpopulated by approx 6 billion humans to the detriment of almost every other species (flora and fauna).

The human race will, in all likelihood, adapt to pretty much anything, as it has to many things in the past esp the industrial revolution. That's not to say that more wars won't be fought and more people killed in the name of western society's desire to enforce "democracy" on those formally peaceful nations who just happen to have something they want.

In a world where we allow 50,000 children a day to die from poverty yet spend billions on illegal wars, running out of oil could be a good thing as the long term consequences might just make us all a bit more humane.

On the other hand; solar, wind and tidal power are making massive steps forward. Battery (energy storage) technology is about to advance hugely, due to carbon graphite innovations. AA size batteries that can store 100kilowatts will soon be available.

Hydrogen cars are now available with major manufacturers incl Honda and BMW about to launch cars that have comparable performance and range to petrol models so who knows we might not need much oil in 50 years time.

I could rant for pages but I thought I'd put two perspectives in to the mix. Can't say I actually disagree with any of the previous views and comments though.

--------------------------------------------
Only take what you need and give more than you take...

 

[wingstoo]

With two good horses it is possible to plough an acre of moderate land in a day. Your fuel need cost you nothing (at least nothing that has to come from outside the farm), you can hear the birds sing as you work, and will not be working in diesel or petrol fumes, and, if you have a good rapport with your horses, ploughing can be a delight. I don't believe there is a more entrancing occupation. And there is one little thing that a horse can do that a tractor can't, and that is to have another horse. A mare can work in chains (although not in shafts) to within a few hours of foaling. She foals in the spring, so can work the winter through, which is when you want to do your ploughing. After she has had her foal she must rest for six weeks at least, and then only come into her work gradually.

And for the ploughman a walk of about 10 miles per acre ploughed...

Bio fuels are just going to replace our food crops as there isn't enough arable land for both crops, currently in the US they cannot harvest their bio fuel crops as they don't have the fuel for the harvesters...

There is however something out there that can be used as a fuel that is easy to produce from almost any natural product...METHANE,

It is already being used in villages in third world countries and running small generation plants for areas close to land-fill sites where it is usually burnt off as waste.

When the oil runs out things are going to change dramatically, use your imagination to how bad a 21st century world will fare, then start multiplying it.

LS

 

[Toddy]

When something is scarce the price rises; when something is expensive people use it more sparingly, and find alternatives that are within their budget. Oil is simply another commodity.
Very simple measures such as iIf we installed solar panels on every house roof, on every lamp post and recycled efficiently then the resources we have would last an awful lot longer. Besides we are getting a heck of a lot more effective at extracting oil resouces. There's at *least* 40 feet of coal less than a mile deep under my house, it's just not financially viable to extract it, yet. That's true for fuel resources worldwide.

I don't think things are going to go downhill, I think the opposite is true, but then, I look at a problem as an opportunity for development, not a retrograde step into anarchy

cheers,
Toddy

 

[wingstoo]

When something is scarce the price rises; when something is expensive people use it more sparingly, and find alternatives that are within their budget. Oil is simply another commodity.
Very simple measures such as iIf we installed solar panels on every house roof, on every lamp post and recycled efficiently then the resources we have would last an awful lot longer. Besides we are getting a heck of a lot more effective at extracting oil resouces. There's at *least* 40 feet of coal less than a mile deep under my house, it's just not financially viable to extract it, yet. That's true for fuel resources worldwide.

I don't think things are going to go downhill, I think the opposite is true, but then, I look at a problem as an opportunity for development, not a retrograde step into anarchy

cheers,
Toddy

Quiet right Toddy, solar panels will be good as long as you have sufficient batteries to store that power, but like most things these days the case of a battery is made of an oil based product, And of couse the lead inside needs to be mined, this brings us to the recycle efficiently part, how many times can a product be recycled? with polythene it looses approximately 10% each time so raw virgin material has to be added, which of course is oil based. Then there will be solar hot water heating, well there will be during the hot weather...The oil will run out in the future no matter how good we are at extracting it from the ground, the same with coal, once it has gone it will be another 120 million years before we get some more.

There will probably not be to much anarchy, people will be to busy trying to feed themselves to have much fight left in them.

TWO HUNDRED YEARS we have been on the up, now we are heading back down a bit.

LS

 

[lofthouse31]

i will go down the route of wood, wind, candle,arms and legs i think.
ive just got my wood burning stove, marvellous bit of apperatus, ive not installed it yet, if the world ever runs out of wood, i doubt it will be in my lifetime, chatting to carriboo on another thread and its opened my eyes,
This wood burner when in place will heat my home, cook my food,dry my clothes in wet weather, heat my iron, and all ive got to do is put the fuel in it, wood,waste paper and other things one example the peoples of the sahara mix camel dung with plant matter and leave it to bake in the sun,bake hard.
the result is a slow burning brick of fuel, fuel from doo doo, if the world ever runs out of doo doo i doubt it will in my life time.
the knowledge is out there past and present, and im with toddy, theres more than one way to peel a spud.
im food self sufficient as it is and energy is next.
if you got food shelter heat and water, life is surthriveable, thats all we need,
and what we all learn about,
luck on the bright side we are a step or five ahead than most

 

[Toddy]

Batteries are improving all the time, so are plastics, so are our re-cycling abilities, so are....the list is endless. Things that were beyond the imagination of science fiction in my childhood are commonplace domestic items now.
The very internet that we *talk* on so freely is a prime example, in my household alone we have three internet connected computers and two laptops with web ability.....two phones as well, and guess what ? one of the phones can be charged with five minutes of cawing a wee handle .....it's an amazing world, full of incredibly creative people. To quote my 80+year old uncle, "Ach we'll no' be stuck, there's ay some way to get bye."

To be honest, I'd have thought bushcrafters would have been more inclined to see potential and possibilities than see negative impossibilities and despair.

My tuppence worth

cheers,
Toddy...who recycles, composts, turns off lights, drives an efficient car, has insulated the house, fitted low energy bulbs (hate the damned things ) tries to live a low footprint lifestyle....not out of panic but because it feels like it's the right thing to do.....while still thoroughly enjoying being part of the 21st century