Open question - Financial

[Falstaff]

A long while, their reserve is humongous, much larger than the US or anybody else.
Plus, they are still buying in from Brazil and other countries, presumably at long term favourable rates. A decent chunk of their sales are to their BRIC members e.g. Nigeria, so that they are not hit as hard by the Hormuz issues, and buying indebtedness & goodwill..

I guess their reserves envisaged potentially being cut off from the rest of the world supply if they upset someone with their territorial ambitions. Right now that is not likely, nobody's got any munitions to spare. So, cannily taking a quick profit on reserves bought at much lower prices.

 

[HorseGuy]

My assesment of oil over the past few days:

- Trump tweets that they are near to reaching a deal with Iran (again ).
- Oil immediately drops back down (again ).
- Iran denys Trump's deal claim (again ).
- The IRGC continue to shoot and hit any oil tanker which try to pass without paying a toll.
- The mainstream media paints a rosy picture of the situation.
- Still no ships are exiting the straight.

This is not financial advice for anyone else. You need to do you own research and make you own decisions. But in my opinion I think this could be a good time to buy some more oil at $80 and setup a top-limit order to automatically sell it at $98.

 

[TeeDee]

My assesment of oil over the past few days:

- Trump tweets that they are near to reaching a deal with Iran (again ).
- Oil immediately drops back down (again ).
- The Iran denys Trump's deal claim (again ).
- The IRGC continues to shoot and hit any oil tanker which try to pass without paying a toll.
- The mainstream media paints a rosy picture of the situation.
- Still no ships are exiting the straight.

This is not financial advice for anyone else. You need to do you own research and make you own decisions. But in my opinion I think this could be a good time to buy some more oil at £80 and setup a top-limit order to automatically sell it at £98 dollars.

£98 dollars.


£
$

 

[Sooty22]

My assesment of oil over the past few days:

- Trump tweets that they are near to reaching a deal with Iran (again ).
- Oil immediately drops back down (again ).
- The Iran denys Trump's deal claim (again ).
- The IRGC continues to shoot and hit any oil tanker which try to pass without paying a toll.
- The mainstream media paints a rosy picture of the situation.
- Still no ships are exiting the straight.

This is not financial advice for anyone else. You need to do you own research and make you own decisions. But in my opinion I think this could be a good time to buy some more oil at £80 and setup a top-limit order to automatically sell it at £98 dollars.

Put it this way. The Iranians would rather Trump lost control in the mid-terms, and that means they will continue hitting, every time oil drops, to ensure the American public will be hurting at the pump.
So, until November the 3rd, oil will be going up and down faster than the proverbial knickers. If it was entirely up to Iran, it would probably be constantly well into the hundreds, perhaps the upper hundreds. But there are reserves, and high prices kill some of the demand.
The question is until when can the temporary measures continue being effective.
Either way, 80 is cheap and a good time to buy an ETF, then sell immediately when it hits 100ish -since Trump will start tweeting again...
Keep in mind Brent futures are priced for delivery in the second calendar month ahead, so -with the current conditions and a hope of de-escalation- Brent futures drop on the 1st trading day of a month, and -given no light at the end of the tunnel- increase towards the end of the month (as the timeline for delivery is tightening).

 

[HorseGuy]

£98 dollars.


£
$

View attachment 104352

Erm...
Yeah I meant $$$$$$

 

[HorseGuy]

Put it this way. The Iranians would rather Trump lost control in the mid-terms, and that means they will continue hitting, every time oil drops, to ensure the American public will be hurting at the pump.
So, until November the 3rd, oil will be going up and down faster than the proverbial knickers. If it was entirely up to Iran, it would probably be constantly well into the hundreds, perhaps the upper hundreds. But there are reserves, and high prices kill some of the demand.
The question is until when can the temporary measures continue being effective.
Either way, 80 is cheap and a good time to buy an ETF, then sell immediately when it hits 100ish -since Trump will start tweeting again...
Keep in mind Brent futures are priced for delivery in the second calendar month ahead, so -with the current conditions and a hope of de-escalation- Brent futures drop on the 1st trading day of a month, and -given no light at the end of the tunnel- increase towards the end of the month (as the timeline for delivery is tightening).

I agree 100%. It is a gamble of course. Maybe our assessment is wrong and Trump really has set up the bestist ever deal in the history of deals and Israel and Iran will be sat around the campfire singing "Kum ba yah" together by Christmas time.

But I doubt it somehow and I'm willing to bet that I'll probably make 22.5% profit on that trade within a month or two.

 

[Sooty22]

I agree 100%. It is a gamble of course. Maybe our assessment is wrong and Trump really has set up the bestist ever deal in the history of deals and Israel and Iran will be sat around the campfire singing "Kum ba yah" together by Christmas time.

But I doubt it somehow and I'm willing to bet that I'll probably make 22.5% profit on that trade within a month or two.

I think easily.

 

[TeeDee]

Even if uninterested in PM's - Interesting Vid featuring some significant changes in US Policy.

 

[HorseGuy]

After a major pullback and 8 months of consolidation all of the technical analysis and fundamental underlying drivers suggest that gold and silver are now ready for another major rally up. Potentially a very big one if it passes the previous peak reached January.

The sentiment in the markets has also flipped from being extremely bearish and negative just a couple of months ago to being highly bullish and optimistic now. As I've said several times before I personally think that what happened in the latter half of 2025 will look like a small blip on the chart by comparison to the size the next rally in gold and silver could go up to. But that's just my amateur opinion.

 

[JonathanD]

After a major pullback and 8 months of consolidation all of the technical analysis and fundamental underlying drivers suggest that gold and silver are now ready for another major rally up. Potentially a very big one if it passes the previous peak reached January.

The sentiment in the markets has also flipped from being extremely bearish and negative just a couple of months ago to being highly bullish and optimistic now. As I've said several times before I personally think that what happened in the latter half of 2025 will look like a small blip on the chart by comparison to the size the next rally in gold and silver could go up to. But that's just my amateur opinion.

People in the trade are expecting a massive increase. One that will exceed the prices reached a few months back. But this time they will stick. Silver is predicted to skyrocket.

 

[TeeDee]

https://www.ft.com/content/9d61ca14-6939-4efa-a6fe-0ec1b283d77a

" The Treasury Department announced on Aug. 19 that it would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, aimed at the 10- to 30-year sector and running from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4. The announcement came after the 30-year yield touched a 19-year high. Yields fell within minutes. By the next afternoon they had round-tripped to levels above where they started. The market’s verdict was swift and correct: This wasn’t liquidity management, it was price management — and a mistake far larger than $4 billion suggests."

 

[Sooty22]

Looking at the global situation, I think your best bet financially is to buy land that gets you food, or stock up slowly on all the staples your family needs for a loooong time.
The Hormuz thing is not resolved.
There is still oil/gas/fuels missing from the market, with what is 'covered' being emergency reserves and commercial stockpile released, which cannot be sustained.
There is a big price increase in fuels and fertilisers.
There is a lot of fertiliser missing from the market.
Our Autumn season is planting season down South, and they are lacking fertilisers, which will mean a very poor crop with a knock on effect for years ahead.
Add to that the El Nino talk, and what that could mean.
You can eat trout, sea fish, deer, crops, and stuff stored at home. You cannot eat gold or barrels of oil, physical or paper ones.

 

[HorseGuy]

" The Treasury Department announced on Aug. 19 that it would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, aimed at the 10- to 30-year sector and running from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4. The announcement came after the 30-year yield touched a 19-year high. Yields fell within minutes. By the next afternoon they had round-tripped to levels above where they started. The market’s verdict was swift and correct: This wasn’t liquidity management, it was price management — and a mistake far larger than $4 billion suggests."

"Liquidity support" sounds so much better than quantitative easing.

 

[HorseGuy]

Has anyone else been watching the global bond markets lately? It looks like the interest payments on government debt might be about to become unmanageable for several major economies.

These are likely the most relevant ones to keep an eye on if anyone's interested:

US 10 year bond
US 30 year bond
Japan 10 year bond
Japan 30 year bond
UK 10 year bond
UK 30 year bond
France 10 year bond
France 30 year bond

 

[demented dale]

It's all gona go round the U bend. Stop the world I want to get off. We're in for a bumpy ride. LOL xxxxxxx

 

[slowworm]

Has anyone else been watching the global bond markets lately? It looks like the interest payments on government debt might be about to become unmanageable for several major economies.

I'm not actively watching them but aware of what's going on. The AI bubble is sucking in huge amounts of investment and governments are too addicted to borrowing (and having to refinance low interest expiring bonds with much higher interest new bonds). Then one arm of government is buying the other arms debt, etc, etc.

It's all going to lead to much higher real world inflation so I've decided to take a bit of a lump sum from my pension to pay for some large projects hopefully before prices rise too much.

 

[demented dale]

I'm not actively watching them but aware of what's going on. The AI bubble is sucking in huge amounts of investment and governments are too addicted to borrowing (and having to refinance low interest expiring bonds with much higher interest new bonds). Then one arm of government is buying the other arms debt, etc, etc.

It's all going to lead to much higher real world inflation so I've decided to take a bit of a lump sum from my pension to pay for some large projects hopefully before prices rise too much.

Now that is a very good idea. and that has made me look at my situation. Ive got some money as well (not a pension) and wondering what to do with it, I need to buy something and soon. x

 

[Athos]

Has anyone else been watching the global bond markets lately? It looks like the interest payments on government debt might be about to become unmanageable for several major economies.

These are likely the most relevant ones to keep an eye on if anyone's interested:

US 10 year bond
US 30 year bond
Japan 10 year bond
Japan 30 year bond
UK 10 year bond
UK 30 year bond
France 10 year bond
France 30 year bond

It’s genuinely concerning. The UK is in nearly 3 trillion pounds in debt. I wouldn’t recommend investing in bonds for the foreseeable.

To put it into context, if every pound of national debt was equal to one second in time, then the national debt is equivalent to 94,588.77 years.

I’ll keep taking my chances on stocks, I wouldn’t trust the Government with my lunch money.

 

[Dan00001]

Has anyone else been watching the global bond markets lately? It looks like the interest payments on government debt might be about to become unmanageable for several major economies.

These are likely the most relevant ones to keep an eye on if anyone's interested:

US 10 year bond
US 30 year bond
Japan 10 year bond
Japan 30 year bond
UK 10 year bond
UK 30 year bond
France 10 year bond
France 30 year bond

Yes, I follow bond yields to see where interest rates are going. And they are only going one way imo. Up.

 

[Falstaff]

So a good time to buy precious metals, e.g. gold silver etc?