Open question - Financial

[HorseGuy]

People can imagine as many scenarios as exist. This coming 'collapse' has been orchestrated and has been many years in the planning. There will not big a descent into chaos. There may well be some minor disruption during the transition but it will be a relatively smooth reset of the entire financial system culminating in a digital currency controlled by a central bank. If it is implemented then we stand to lose whatever privacy and freedom we have got left.
I am just going to keep practicing bush craft, Hell! I might even need it . xxxx

The situation which you describe is a kind of dystopian, technocratic, communistic society which is a possibility if we continue down a path of digital ID and CBDC monitoring and controlling peoples every move. Although I doubt the powers-who-should-not-be will ever be able to actually implement it in the way they intend. Personally I will never accept a digital ID no matter what happens and many of the people I have spoken to feel the same. Judging from the comments online there is also a significant proportion of the population who would refuse too. Even if this does ever happen do not underestimate the strength of the human spirit and ingenuity and resourcefulness of people. Black markets, opportunities and other underground solutions will undoubtedly spring up in response to any kind of excessive technocratic or communistic society.

A more likely scenario in my opinion is some kind of economic collapse leading to events which are beyond the control of governments and their string pullers. This scenario should not be underestimated either though as this would likely be prolonged for several years and tough to live through. Also poor and desperate people can be dangerous and an economic collapse would produce a lot of poor desperate people.

Another possibility is the full on extreme Mad Max type of scenario which I think is unlikely to happen but not totally impossible either. For something like this to occur it would probably first require a large scale WW3 nuclear exchange or EMP event causing a continent wide failure of the electric grid transformers (which would result in no more tap water, food deliveries or other goods deliveries for maybe ten or twenty years). In such an nightmarish extreme scenario things would likely get very crazy for the first year or so but once the communities who are unable to be truly and totally self-sufficient at sustaining themselves had died off I expect society would to start reforming again naturally from the survivors and civilization would rebuild.

Personally though I refuse to live in fear of all the ‘what ifs’ which might happen. So long as I am physically fit, mentally and spirituality strong, have a good skill set and live in a local community of good people who have a reasonable chance of being able to survive being totally self-sustaining if necessary then there are very few ‘what if’ situations which could not be overcome.

One thing life has taught me about the future is that it is never what you expect it to be. Something totally different and unexpected always happens one way or another. So just be ready and prepared to be adaptable to whatever curve balls life throws at you then just focus on enjoying life today because you never really know what tomorrow might bring. That’s my philosophy anyway.

 

[oldtimer]

There are plenty of people in the world for whom this has already happened. Gaza, Sudan.just two examples.

 

[TeeDee]

I can see a real future unfortunately where digital ID linked to bank accounts is then used to be aligned with the Chinese credit scoring system - currently being practiced and being studied and monitored by western governments as a potential option for a tool of control

Whilst we may think it would be ,( example ) " just " to stop a historic proven football hooligan to booking a train ticket to a nearby city - based up on the probability that they will be traveling to be violent , you could prevent that unproven outcome via intervention - control

But one could also apply that to stopping another from booking a ticket to peacefully ( or not ) protest.

Combine digital ID , face recognition software and mobile CCTV units linking to a digital crypto bank account , it becomes a powerful tool for any power to choose NOT to use without double checking and reaffirming the ethical standards that they purport to adhere too.


Whilst to us this may seem like dystopian far reaching fantasy , I'm reminded how much British policing ( the arm of government ) has changed in the last 5 years alone regarding acting upon words , comments and opinions on social media leading to uninvited doorstop policing for the discussion of non-crimes ( wrong-think ) and the non criminal recording of such things


I would also like to think we would resist, resist , resist this quite scary option for control but as they say liberty is taken by the inch , not the yard - so I suspect over a generation or two unless the concept and discussion regarding liberties is rekindled in each generation it will come to be embodied as standard.

 

[oldtimer]

The price of democracy is eternal vigilance.

 

[TeeDee]

The price of democracy is eternal vigilance.

Remind me whom is that attributed too please ?

 

[Keith_Beef]

Remind me whom is that attributed too please ?

It's frequently attributed to Thomas Jefferson, but that's disputed.

Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty (Spurious Quotation)

Scholars do not believe Jefferson wrote or said, "Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty."

www.monticello.org

 

[slowworm]

In the cobwebbed recesses of my brain is a memory of the American response to this problem being the potential use of 22LR as a barterable commodity on the grounds that it was very widely used and of intrinsic value given the envisaged situation.

Interesting if true, although the price in the UK would vary roughly between 5p and 20p a round in the UK. Like the pound it has suffered a large bout of inflation over the last couple of years as well!

I have been wondering about the value of gold and silver etc in a post-apocalyptic world as I wouldn't have a use for it and wouldn't know enough about hallmarks etc to give it any form of value. We're fairly self sufficient and if I was to sell a load of logs*, potatoes, honey etc in such a world then I'd want something I could understand and evaluate in return. A saw blade, sealed bottle of spirits, even a box of primers would be more useful than a coin or a hallmarked spoon.

*Obviously before I'd sell less than 2 cube of logs I'd have to wait for the complete collapse of society as it's currently illegal for me to do so...

 

[TeeDee]

I do struggle with the mindset of what a possible scenario is that would create a full blown P.A wet dream / nightmare

I clearly do prep abit ,probably more than others less so than others but my main interest in gold or silver is more related to bypassing the issues of our financial structure in the here and now as opposed to any barter type economy in a Threads type scenario

It's difficult I appreciate to not see things in a black or white sense of society working , society not working but there is a plethora of shades of grey between now and then and back again as any hiccup tends to revert back in time
.

 

[GreyCat]

There's a still fair bit of barter and cash economy in UK (especially but not exclusively rural areas). Small useful things such as eggs, honey, veg, bottle of beer/wine in exchange for removing a wasps nest, splitting some wood, fixing a computer, making a basket, mending a torn garment, etc.

Nothing conspiratorial, just doing what has been done for years in communities the world over. On one level it's gifts for gifts, someone gives you something or does something for you, the appropriate token of appreciation is given in exchange. If it's something that needs modern stuff e.g. trimming a hedge with a tractor then some cash is the expectation. A sum will be agreed but it's good manners to give a bit more in appreciation of a good job.

If the financial system goes down, I think we'll see more of that. A jar of honey or a dozen eggs in exchange for a haircut for example. Perhaps informal local currencies will arise in some places- is the "Preston Pound" still a thing?.

Useful skills and ability to do things like growing veg, making country wine or keeping bees are IMO just as useful if not more useful in difficult times than buying gold or silver.

GC

 

[Broch]

The barter economy I don't mind, the odd tenner for a job done I don't mind, but around here the tax avoidance cash economy is criminal. Every tradesman or service provider that says 'for cash I can do it for this' is robbing someone else of the tax they have to pay to keep our infrastructure running.

I'll step off my soapbox now

 

[GreyCat]

Yeah, cannot argue with that. I was more thinking of the sort of local favours for favours thing.

That said, certain parts of the tax system are bad. VAT for example..... when we renovated the new place, we paid the VAT in full at 20%. In theory, it had been unoccupied for long enough (2 years) to attract the 5% rate, but in practice, my acountant told me that decent small builders are so worried about a possible VAT investigation (due purely to the time, stress, accountant extra cost and hassle when you are a small business), that they won't apply the 5% rate as it would inevitablly cause a VAT investigation for a typical small builder. So I didn't go there, it's difficult enough getting a decent builder as it is.

As a result, we paid a LOT more tax than we should in theory have done if the tax system was applied correctly. A fair system should not use scare tactics to get more tax than is due, and should be applied equitably- whether big or small organisation/persons. But no, it's weighted in favour of big corporates who can afford good accountants/lawyers on the payroll. That is reality; things like the HMRC using "nudge" letters to scare people and small businesses (I have had a few, they are routine scare-drops sent to SMEs; my accountant explained what they are and I just pass everything from HMRC to him anyway. So they don't scare me these days. But the first one was very worrying).

The govt (not just this one but earlier ones also) would have enough for mending infrastructure and the other stuff it should do it if spent wisely and didn't pee money up the wall on stupidity and magical thinking.

That said, looks like small traders are being brought into the MTD system and there's talk of lowering the VAT registration threshold. Doesnt worry me as my business has been VAT registered for several years, but it looks like (from you tube) some folks with "side hussles" are getting antsy.

I will step down off my soapbox now

GC

 

[Broch]

My VAT inspector was a bloke called Parrot. I only saw him twice but he was great. He'd spend several hours over cups of coffee going through my books and at the end would say something like "there's a mistake in October that I'm going to have to pull you up on, but, if you look carefully, in August there's a mistake the other way that will more than compensate". He wasn't allowed to actually point it out but he gave enough clues

The corporation tax inspector I only saw once in 30 years and he was very pleasant. The only thing he pulled me up on was claiming relief for my own CPD.

 

[TeeDee]

The barter economy I don't mind, the odd tenner for a job done I don't mind, but around here the tax avoidance cash economy is criminal. Every tradesman or service provider that says 'for cash I can do it for this' is robbing someone else of the tax they have to pay to keep our infrastructure running.

I'll step off my soapbox now

Can I see a receipt for that soapbox please Sir ?

 

[TeeDee]

The barter economy I don't mind, the odd tenner for a job done I don't mind, but around here the tax avoidance cash economy is criminal. Every tradesman or service provider that says 'for cash I can do it for this' is robbing someone else of the tax they have to pay to keep our infrastructure running.

I'll step off my soapbox now

Lots of reasons the infrastructure is in a somewhat fragile state however. Not given green light to avoiding tax , just wish we had a more balanced approach to shoring up the holes and making sure all the available pennies are spent well , spent wisely , and sent where it matters. As opposed to some more obscure spending strategies

( Thanks for the loan of that box Broch )

 

[Broch]

You're welcome
I agree, there is far too much waste and, if we tackled it from both sides I am sure it could be sorted!

 

[nigelp]

Can I see a receipt for that soapbox please Sir ?

Claimed for it under ‘advertising’.

 

[HorseGuy]

Should have applied for a government grant for it. That way the soapbox could have been paid for using misappropriated funds from the tax payer which would have been better off spent on our crumbling UK infrastructure instead.

 

[Chris]

My VAT inspector was a bloke called Parrot. I only saw him twice but he was great. He'd spend several hours over cups of coffee going through my books and at the end would say something like "there's a mistake in October that I'm going to have to pull you up on, but, if you look carefully, in August there's a mistake the other way that will more than compensate". He wasn't allowed to actually point it out but he gave enough clues

The corporation tax inspector I only saw once in 30 years and he was very pleasant. The only thing he pulled me up on was claiming relief for my own CPD.

HMRC are actually suspiciously helpful for a government department whenever I have had cause to speak to them. Not what one is told to expect of the ‘tax man’, but they’ve been very flexible in accommodating where they can. I think they start to bare their teeth more if caught deliberately trying to mislead or avoid them.

 

[demented dale]

Yeah, cannot argue with that. I was more thinking of the sort of local favours for favours thing.

That said, certain parts of the tax system are bad. VAT for example..... when we renovated the new place, we paid the VAT in full at 20%. In theory, it had been unoccupied for long enough (2 years) to attract the 5% rate, but in practice, my acountant told me that decent small builders are so worried about a possible VAT investigation (due purely to the time, stress, accountant extra cost and hassle when you are a small business), that they won't apply the 5% rate as it would inevitablly cause a VAT investigation for a typical small builder. So I didn't go there, it's difficult enough getting a decent builder as it is.

As a result, we paid a LOT more tax than we should in theory have done if the tax system was applied correctly. A fair system should not use scare tactics to get more tax than is due, and should be applied equitably- whether big or small organisation/persons. But no, it's weighted in favour of big corporates who can afford good accountants/lawyers on the payroll. That is reality; things like the HMRC using "nudge" letters to scare people and small businesses (I have had a few, they are routine scare-drops sent to SMEs; my accountant explained what they are and I just pass everything from HMRC to him anyway. So they don't scare me these days. But the first one was very worrying).

The govt (not just this one but earlier ones also) would have enough for mending infrastructure and the other stuff it should do it if spent wisely and didn't pee money up the wall on stupidity and magical thinking.

That said, looks like small traders are being brought into the MTD system and there's talk of lowering the VAT registration threshold. Doesnt worry me as my business has been VAT registered for several years, but it looks like (from you tube) some folks with "side hussles" are getting antsy.

I will step down off my soapbox now

GC

The barter economy I don't mind, the odd tenner for a job done I don't mind, but around here the tax avoidance cash economy is criminal. Every tradesman or service provider that says 'for cash I can do it for this' is robbing someone else of the tax they have to pay to keep our infrastructure running.

I'll step off my

Thats just the narrative. It is not small traders. They are just like everyone else getting squeezed. The criminals are the government who over tax us on everything and the multi nationals who dont pay a penny in proportion to what they earn. I personally wont do any work unless its for cash. Am I a criminal because I despise warmongering and self serving parasites. I more than pay my way in life as for paying them, they can get stuffed. xxxx
ps I will get off my soapbox aswell and sell it, cash only, no vat

 

[Chris]

Thats just the narrative. It is not small traders. They are just like everyone else getting squeezed. The criminals are the government who over tax us on everything and the multi nationals who dont pay a penny in proportion to what they earn. I personally wont do any work unless its for cash. Am I a criminal because I despise warmongering and self serving parasites. I more than pay my way in life as for paying them, they can get stuffed. xxxx
ps I will get off my soapbox aswell and sell it, cash only, no vat

As long as you don’t use any of the roads, health services, accept any kind of benefits, or use anything else that taxes pay for, I suppose. Otherwise you’re just expecting others to pay for you, which doesn’t seem fair either really.

Though of course you’d only pay tax on anything above the tax free allowance. So if you happen to earn under the threshold then you wouldn’t be really evading anything.