Open question - Financial

[HorseGuy]

Anyone who has even the most basic of knowledge about technical trading will tell you that a ‘cup and handle’ formation on a chart is an extremely bullish signal. Usually about 8 times out of 10 a cup and handle formation will break to the up side and once it breaks they tend move very far very quickly.

Below is the largest and most clearly defined cup and handle formation that I have ever seen anywhere. It has been building for almost half a century and as far as I am aware it may even be the largest cup and handle formation that has existed in any asset ever! From a purely technical point of view when this chart hits somewhere around the $40 mark it will almost certainly break one way or the other and move very far very quickly.

Can you guess what asset the chart is for?
I’ll give you a hint. It starts with an S.

 

[TeeDee]

Anyone who has even the most basic of knowledge about technical trading will tell you that a ‘cup and handle’ formation on a chart is an extremely bullish signal. Usually about 8 times out of 10 a cup and handle formation will break to the up side and once it breaks they tend move very far very quickly.

Below is the largest and most clearly defined cup and handle formation that I have ever seen anywhere. It has been building for almost half a century and as far as I am aware it may even be the largest cup and handle formation that has existed in any asset ever! From a purely technical point of view when this chart hits somewhere around the $40 mark it will almost certainly break one way or the other and move very far very quickly.

Can you guess what asset the chart is for?
I’ll give you a hint. It starts with an S.

Sexy Lingerie ??

< Fingers crossed >

 

[HorseGuy]

It has yes but that just means the silver price has been suppressed for a long time. It does keep track with gold at about 80 to one but that will change. The US adding it to their critical list could be the first part in a line of regulations that regulate purchase and ultimately ends in confiscation. The current financial system is broken and the rich will do anything not to end up broke with it. x

Confiscation eh? Good luck with that one.

I suspect that if the government tries to confiscate peoples precious metals most people would say they’ve lost all theirs in a tragic boating accident or some such excuse. Governments may be able to steal some of the low hanging fruit from easy targets such as jewellery and bullion stored in bank deposit boxes or any ‘unallocated’ metals stored in vaults but for the most part, the sheer amount of work and resources that would be required to steal physical precious metals personally held in peoples own possession would outweigh the benefit.

Try to think like a politician (yeah I know lol ) and look at this from the governments point of view. Not only would it be very difficult to recover physical metals from peoples possession but also so few people even hold precious metals anymore that the returns would only be relatively small and hardly worth bothering with. Compare that to the much larger amount of wealth which can be much more easily stolen from people using other means like the taxation of paper investments such as pensions or the freezing/limiting of peoples bank accounts/investments and of course every governments favorite one (which is already happening to us right now) by inflating the currency supply which raises the price of everything thus reducing the real world purchasing power of any currency or currency denominated paper assets already held by people.

When it comes to stealing the small amount of actual physical precious metals from peoples own personal possession the juice just wouldn’t be worth the squeeze as they say. Especially compared to those other much easier and more beneficial theft options that I mentioned for the mass stealing of wealth from the population.

Just my opinion. I could be wrong.

 

[demented dale]

Confiscation eh? Good luck with that one.

I suspect that if the government tries to confiscate peoples precious metals most people would say they’ve lost all theirs in a tragic boating accident or some such excuse. Governments may be able to steal some of the low hanging fruit from easy targets such as jewellery and bullion stored in bank deposit boxes or any ‘unallocated’ metals stored in vaults but for the most part, the sheer amount of work and resources that would be required to steal physical precious metals personally held in peoples own possession would outweigh the benefit.

Try to think like a politician (yeah I know lol ) and look at this from the governments point of view. Not only would it be very difficult to recover physical metals from peoples possession but also so few people even hold precious metals anymore that the returns would only be relatively small and hardly worth bothering with. Compare that to the much larger amount of wealth which can be much more easily stolen from people using other means like the taxation of paper investments such as pensions or the freezing/limiting of peoples bank accounts/investments and of course every governments favorite one (which is already happening to us right now) by inflating the currency supply which raises the price of everything thus reducing the real world purchasing power of any currency or currency denominated paper assets already held by people.

When it comes to stealing the small amount of actual physical precious metals from peoples own personal possession the juice just wouldn’t be worth the squeeze as they say. Especially compared to those other much easier and more beneficial theft options that I mentioned for the mass stealing of wealth from the population.

Just my opinion. I could be wrong.

Confiscation eh? Good luck with that one.

I suspect that if the government tries to confiscate peoples precious metals most people would say they’ve lost all theirs in a tragic boating accident or some such excuse. Governments may be able to steal some of the low hanging fruit from easy targets such as jewellery and bullion stored in bank deposit boxes or any ‘unallocated’ metals stored in vaults but for the most part, the sheer amount of work and resources that would be required to steal physical precious metals personally held in peoples own possession would outweigh the benefit.

Try to think like a politician (yeah I know lol ) and look at this from the governments point of view. Not only would it be very difficult to recover physical metals from peoples possession but also so few people even hold precious metals anymore that the returns would only be relatively small and hardly worth bothering with. Compare that to the much larger amount of wealth which can be much more easily stolen from people using other means like the taxation of paper investments such as pensions or the freezing/limiting of peoples bank accounts/investments and of course every governments favorite one (which is already happening to us right now) by inflating the currency supply which raises the price of everything thus reducing the real world purchasing power of any currency or currency denominated paper assets already held by people.

When it comes to stealing the small amount of actual physical precious metals from peoples own personal possession the juice just wouldn’t be worth the squeeze as they say. Especially compared to those other much easier and more beneficial theft options that I mentioned for the mass stealing of wealth from the population.

Just my opinion. I could be wrong.

Executive Order 6102 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It has been tried before. I did not suggest that any regulations would be based on tiny amounts. Indeed executive order specifically states that personal property is exempt but in my view the power is coming for everything we own. The World Economic Forum have outlined their objectives and even written a book called The Great Reset, The Fourth Industrial revolution and I quote "You will own nothing and be happy". xxxx

 

[Falstaff]

I think it is possible that western goverments might try to control bullion storage companies metal stocks to prevent it physically moving to the (BRIC?) countries. After all, prior to WW2 to avoid rearmament restrictions, and during the war, Germany had to pay in gold bullion for literally everything imported into Germany. Raw materials, fuel, food, everything, the RM (or was it the DM?) was worthless.

Whilst the West would not want to reinvent the gold standard, there is a sort of back-up reassurance that they still have precious metal within the country. The US seems to be particularly concerned about this at the moment....

 

[HorseGuy]

Executive Order 6102 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It has been tried before.

Yes you are absolutely 100% correct regarding the confiscation of gold in the US in 1933. However there are two very important factors to consider where this is concerned.

First of all, back in 1933 gold and silver coins were still being used by people as real money for everyday transactions as the currency. For this reason most of the population of America actually owned some gold and used it for buying and selling things. But now these days, here in 2025 very few people own any gold at all. Gold stackers are few and far between.

The second thing to bare in mind is that when President Roosevelt outlawed the possession of gold in 1933, only a small percentage of the population actually obeyed and handed their gold into the government like they were supposed to. Sure there were some people who were daft enough to hand their gold over to the government in exchange for paper dollars but the majority of people did not oblige and held on to their gold even though it was illegal for them to do so.

The possession of gold was outlawed on April 5th 1933. Shortly afterwards on January 30th 1934 the US government revalued the price of gold up from $20.67 per ounce to $35 per ounce. The true reality of what this meant is that it was the value of the dollar which was really being devalued down from $20.67 per ounce of gold to $35 per ounce of gold. The corresponding price inflation of real world goods in terms of how many dollars were required to buy stuff was rapidly reflected by this devaluation of the dollar over the next few months to a year. However the price or real world goods in terms of gold stayed virtually unchanged.

This means that the small percentage of people who were daft enough to hand in their gold to the government before the gold/dollar revaluation took place were made poorer in real terms as their purchasing power was transferred to the government who now held their confiscated gold which was revalued from up from $20.67 to $35 per ounce in dollar terms.

The moral of this story is if a government ever tells you that you must exchange your gold for a paper or digital currency you know they are about to devalue that currency and make you poorer once they have taken possession of your gold.

 

[HorseGuy]

in my view the power is coming for everything we own. The World Economic Forum have outlined their objectives and even written a book called The Great Reset, The Fourth Industrial revolution and I quote "You will own nothing and be happy". xxxx

Only if people let them.

 

[Toddy]

Okay; Mod hat on.

We don't do politics on BCUK, and this thread is definitely now verging on that.

Please change the trajectory.

Cheers,
Toddy

 

[TeeDee]

I think it is possible that western goverments might try to control bullion storage companies metal stocks to prevent it physically moving to the (BRIC?) countries. After all, prior to WW2 to avoid rearmament restrictions, and during the war, Germany had to pay in gold bullion for literally everything imported into Germany. Raw materials, fuel, food, everything, the RM (or was it the DM?) was worthless.

Whilst the West would not want to reinvent the gold standard, there is a sort of back-up reassurance that they still have precious metal within the country. The US seems to be particularly concerned about this at the moment....

Because the Gold they do have , held by the treasury as an asset is still valued at the same amount it was when it was stored and audited back in the day.

This is my understanding of what I've read around it.

And yes - even as a concept , not to reevaluate your holdings at correct market value seems bizarre. But it seems to be the case. If it can be reevalued and added to the allowance budget of the Fed it can create some more liquidity ( i think )

 

[TeeDee]

Long analysis

 

[Toddy]

You do know that Africans, South east Asians and Arabs routinely have their gold remodelled as jewellery fashion changes ? That there are umpteen tonnes of the stuff available totally outwith any gold system ? That's it's adornment not so much as it is fiscal prudence.
I suppose it's handy if you need funds in a hurry, just sell a bangle or the earrings....

 

[TeeDee]

You do know that Africans, South east Asians and Arabs routinely have their gold remodelled as jewellery fashion changes ? That there are umpteen tonnes of the stuff available totally outwith any gold system ? That's it's adornment not so much as it is fiscal prudence.
I suppose it's handy if you need funds in a hurry, just sell a bangle or the earrings....

If thats at me - Yes I'm quite aware .

I'm not sure what your point is however Toddy?

 

[Toddy]

If thats at me - Yes I'm quite aware .

I'm not sure what your point is however Toddy?

I'm sort of trying to say that gold is more than money. It's vanity, it's fashion, and that if the price rises, then folks who might otherwise just hang onto it, and there's a lot of it, would sell, and the gold market will flood and crash again.....most of 'our' jewellery is 9ct....the rest of the world pretty much uses much purer gold.

We're sort of eyeing this up from a Western world viewpoint when the reality is that it's a world wide resource and there's actually a lot of it. Three mines I know of are only viable when the price rises....and suddenly there's even more gold.

It's really only a reliable measure if there's a finite amount. Gold owners want the value to increase, but doing so makes marginal mines profitable, so more gold.....

 

[TeeDee]

I'm sort of trying to say that gold is more than money. It's vanity, it's fashion, and that if the price rises, then folks who might otherwise just hang onto it, and there's a lot of it, would sell, and the gold market will flood and crash again.....most of 'our' jewellery is 9ct....the rest of the world pretty much uses much purer gold.

We're sort of eyeing this up from a Western world viewpoint when the reality is that it's a world wide resource and there's actually a lot of it. Three mines I know of are only viable when the price rises....and suddenly there's even more gold.

It's really only a reliable measure if there's a finite amount. Gold owners want the value to increase, but doing so makes marginal mines profitable, so more gold.....

Respectfully I think you are/maybe looking at this the wrong way.


Gold is used as medium for Jewellery BECAUSE it is high value and IS Money ( not currency ) - its status , not fashion. No one is wearing lead or copper bracelets , bangles and necklaces. At least not in the mainstream.

I'm not sure if people would sell if prices rose drastically - its already risen for the last decade and many haven't sold at any point then - and if it did rise and continue to rise people ( not all ) may well be tempted to hold that rising asset as long as they can for maximum gains as opposed to selling it. Jewellery tends to become family pieces of heirloom wealth that is passed through generations - managing to go under financial radars and tax implications unlike many other asset classes.

I'm not eyeing it up from a purely Western aspect - I'm following the trend for many many central banks from a myriad of nations either pulling back their own gold or purchasing more - the list of countries doing this is quite extensive and covers the western 1st world nations just as much as the rising 2nd/3rd world nations - and you are right , in many countries there is far more of a culture for families to purchase Gold as jewellery / investment than it seems in the western world where we seem to flood to stock markets for paper shares in companies.
Not saying that is wrong , but its a cultural difference.

There IS only a Finite amount of Gold - Its either held by someone , Individual , company , Bank , country or its yet to be found still in the ground , but ultimately it is finite.

Not sure if Gold owners want the value to increase as much as they want to have an inflation proof store of value - in physical form that can be coins, bullion or jewellery , that can provide a consistent metric of 'value' as opposed too how much or little any currency system is worth depending upon how much has been digitally created or printed.

 

[demented dale]

Only if people let them.

I often think of the quote made by one of the globalists "Give them the right kind of crisis and people will accept anything,"
Based on what I have seen these last few years I am inclined to agree.

 

[Toddy]

Gold is not 'scarce', not in comparison to platinum.

Gold production is still increasing, it doesn't disappear, it doesn't get used up.

New methods of extraction and recovery (30% was the figure I read in the early 2020's) are of worldwide interest and research, especially since it's so useful in electronics. It's actively mined everywhere from China to Africa, to Scotland (when the price of extraction is viable) south America....

The consumption of gold produced in the world is about 50% in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry.

Look up Mansa Musa....on his Hajj trip to Mecca he gave away so much gold that it caused inflation in Egypt for a decade....how much gold could destabilise economies now ?

Gold traders make money, they push an agenda, they push an idea of security, stability, easy access in troubled times.

Look for the agenda behind the propaganda.
People have been hoarding gold for millennia, history is full worries and efforts against theft, wars, etc., Did it do them any good ? we find their hoards. Worldwide we find their hoards. Just sitting buried in the ground. Doing nothing but informing us of history.

If you want to make money, don't hoard. Use it.

 

[TeeDee]

Gold is not 'scarce', not in comparison to platinum.

Gold production is still increasing, it doesn't disappear, it doesn't get used up.

New methods of extraction and recovery (30% was the figure I read in the early 20220's) are of worldwide interest and research, especially since it's so useful in electronics. It's actively mined everywhere from China to Africa, to Scotland (when the price of extraction is viable) south America....

The consumption of gold produced in the world is about 50% in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry.

Look up Mansa Musa....on his Hajj trip to Mecca he gave away so much gold that it caused inflation in Egypt for a decade....how much gold could destabilise economies now ?

Gold traders make money, they push an agenda, they push an idea of security, stability, easy access in troubled times.

Look for the agenda behind the propaganda.
People have been hoarding gold for millennia, history is full worries and efforts against theft, wars, etc., Did it do them any good ? we find their hoards. Worldwide we find their hoards. Just sitting buried in the ground. Doing nothing but informing us of history.

If you want to make money, don't hoard. Use it.

Gold is scarce enough - Yes there are more scarce PM's that exist but to suggest its not scarce is doing a slight disservice - if it wasn't scarce enough - it wouldn't be the consistent resilient yardscale that has existed for as long as it has.

Can most people in the UK afford a small amount of gold? yes possibly ( but I've read alarming figures of what average UK population has as savings ) - can ALL of the world afford Gold? No - because it is somewhat scarce - more scarce than others.

No Gold doesn't get used up - thats correct - unless you consider its being used up now as a financial hedge asset held by central banks - is that being 'used up'? to take it away from the open market ?

Silver is used up and not recovered - wasted in land fills , used in electronics , but Gold is more revered and protected - why? by the individual or institution its revered.

I don't think anyone here has advised , said or instructed anyone to ONLY hoard Gold? If one owns it either as a investment or fashion accessory - great. It should be ( if one is looking at as a financial inflation insulator ) be part of a portfolio.

I admit I do find the current presentation of the banking system approaching a pivot away from the FIAT system to something more asset backed as its core ( as the Swiss Franc ) as an interesting proposal to witness. Which does seem to be where we are going.

If that is going to happen , and it does appear it will ( IMO ) I think its worth contemplating before it arrives.

 

[Chris]

Gold traders make money, they push an agenda, they push an idea of security, stability, easy access in troubled times.

I suspect that this hits the nail on the head when it comes to why there’s such an overlap between precious metal hoarding and some communities. They have to sell the fear of economic collapse and global financial conspiracies in order for gold and (especially) silver to seem such attractive prospects. Scare people about an impending disaster, then sell the only thing that can save them. Not a new trick, really.

Gold as part of a wider portfolio to hedge against volatile markets, fine - in fact probably quite sensible. But the idea that in a state of collapse we will need all our wealth in precious metals is only benefitting people selling the precious metals now. Silver especially, clearly being part of a concerted push by social media algorithms. The cynic in me might wonder if this is because silver is much more affordable for the everyday person, thus making the prospective audience wider and making it a more profitable grift.

 

[GreyCat]

Respectfully I think you are/maybe looking at this the wrong way.


Gold is used as medium for Jewellery BECAUSE it is high value and IS Money ( not currency ) - its status , not fashion. No one is wearing lead or copper bracelets , bangles and necklaces. At least not in the mainstream.

I'm not sure if people would sell if prices rose drastically - its already risen for the last decade and many haven't sold at any point then - and if it did rise and continue to rise people ( not all ) may well be tempted to hold that rising asset as long as they can for maximum gains as opposed to selling it. Jewellery tends to become family pieces of heirloom wealth that is passed through generations - managing to go under financial radars and tax implications unlike many other asset classes.

I'm not eyeing it up from a purely Western aspect - I'm following the trend for many many central banks from a myriad of nations either pulling back their own gold or purchasing more - the list of countries doing this is quite extensive and covers the western 1st world nations just as much as the rising 2nd/3rd world nations - and you are right , in many countries there is far more of a culture for families to purchase Gold as jewellery / investment than it seems in the western world where we seem to flood to stock markets for paper shares in companies.
Not saying that is wrong , but its a cultural difference.

There IS only a Finite amount of Gold - Its either held by someone , Individual , company , Bank , country or its yet to be found still in the ground , but ultimately it is finite.

Not sure if Gold owners want the value to increase as much as they want to have an inflation proof store of value - in physical form that can be coins, bullion or jewellery , that can provide a consistent metric of 'value' as opposed too how much or little any currency system is worth depending upon how much has been digitally created or printed.

Indeed.

Many, many years ago, I was privledged enough to be involved in the wedding of a good friend of Indian subcontinental extraction. She took me shopping in London with her when she was selecting her wedding (dowry) jewelry. Along the way, she explained a lot about how it all works......

There's lots of styles..... she pointed out styles (traditional and modern) favoured by different communities..... and was really clear that for wedding jewelry, it must be 24 carat gold, anything less (even 23 carat) was regarded as being totally cheapskate.

The jewelry belonged totally to the bride, but was paid for by the groom and their family. It was basically a sum of money/value that belonged to her only. The higher the sum spent, the more status accrued and a minimum level was expected as the bride's family took it as an indicator of how much the groom's family was willing to commit to the relationship.

That's how she explained it all anyway. (This was the London community in the early 1990's, interpretations of the custom may be different in other times/places).

Also- the jewelry was sold by weight. The style was secondary. Yes, it may be remodeled and changed, but the fundamental requirement was a quantity of 24 carat gold.

There are apparently also similar styles of jewelry of much lower gold content used for general adornment, but the wedding jewelry was very much a specific store of value.

It was a fascinating insight.

GC

 

[Tengu]

Yes, I saw that too...They were wedded, in 24carats...more bling than many wealthy people.

and this couple were not wealthy...very much not.

(Says she who owns very little gold...most of it inherited. I do prefer silver though because of its neutral colour).

(and affordability...)