Worst case scenario

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KenThis

Full Member
Jun 14, 2016
825
121
Cardiff
...I might sound like an a-hole...

Unfortunately to my mind there is no 'might'...
To be honest I expected more from you due to your medical background.
I have the utmost respect for anyone who puts themselves before others and that includes military personnel.
But your comments regarding civilians are condescending bull poop.
Also just because someone makes it through training does not make them immune from mental ill health.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_veteran_suicide
As the rate of suicide is higher for veterans compared to the general population.
Then again those suicides might be those 'fakers' who claim just for monetary reward.
 

Janne

Sent off - Not allowed to play
Feb 10, 2016
12,330
2,294
Grand Cayman, Norway, Sweden
I think you misunderstand me, or I have composed it badly?

A civilian does not understand that a military does horrible, unnatural things because they have been trained to do them without questioning. Things a civilian would refuse to do.
Would you shoot a 5 year old in the head? If you saw his torso looked suspiciously large and he looked nervous?i I am not sure.
Yet it is done. Children, women, pregnant women, women with prams. Shot. By young guys.
They do it because they are trained. A mentally sound civilian could not do this.
I am talking cases where the targets are suicide bombers of course. Or suspected once. A daily occurance for the last decades.

I am not dissing civilians. I have been one for a very long timr. But you will not understand, trust me. Why do you think most countries have Veterans clubs or associations if some sort?

Santamans comment - you just suck it up and move on -is spot on. That is the only way you keep sane.
High suicide rate? Considering what those guys go through it is low. After WW1 the suicide rate, alcoholism and misadjustment back into society was much, much higher than today.



Unfortunately to my mind there is no 'might'...
To be honest I expected more from you due to your medical background.
I have the utmost respect for anyone who puts themselves before others and that includes military personnel.
But your comments regarding civilians are condescending bull poop.
Also just because someone makes it through training does not make them immune from mental ill health.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_veteran_suicide
As the rate of suicide is higher for veterans compared to the general population.
Then again those suicides might be those 'fakers' who claim just for monetary reward.
 
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KenThis

Full Member
Jun 14, 2016
825
121
Cardiff
I think you misunderstand me, or I have composed it badly?

A civilian does not understand that a military does horrible, unnatural things because they have been trained to do them without questioning. Things a civilian would refuse to do.
Would you shoot a 5 year old in the head? If you saw his torso looked suspiciously large and he looked nervous?i I am not sure.
Yet it is done. Children, women, pregnant women, women with prams. Shot. By young guys.
They do it because they are trained. A mentally sound civilian could not do this.
I am talking cases where the targets are suicide bombers of course. Or suspected once. A daily occurance for the last decades.

I am not dissing civilians. I have been one for a very long timr. But you will not understand, trust me. Why do you think most countries have Veterans clubs or associations if some sort?

Santamans comment - you just suck it up and move on -is spot on. That is the only way you keep sane.
High suicide rate? Considering what those guys go through it is low. After WW1 the suicide rate, alcoholism and misadjustment back into society was much, much higher than today.

I apologise Janne, I think I did misunderstand you or we may be talking at cross purposes.

Having reread your comments I just want to specify exactly what my personal experience and research have led me to think. I'll do bullet points to try to be clear and to stop waffling - this is not specific to your comments Janne just my general view.

1. Mental illness is real, it has nothing to do with 'character flaws' or a lack of 'heart'. Just like a broken leg or bad case of the flu it can happen to anyone at any time. Nobody chooses to be afflicted and if someone is truly suffering mental illness they cannot talk themselves out of it any more than someone could wish away a tumour.

2. Obviously in any population there will be those who are more predisposed to mental illness, just as there are those more predisposed to diabetes or heart disease. Similarly environmental cues/life experience can trigger mental illness as they could trigger diabetes or heart disease. Therefore two people exposed to similar life experience may not both share the same mental illness and two people with similar mental illness may have been exposed to very different life experience.

3. A previous mental health resilience is no guarantee that a person will not at some point develop a mental illness. This is particularly true of PTSD, a person may have seen or been part of any number of truly bad experiences without suffering PTSD, then perhaps something more innocuous pushes them over the edge. The straw that broke the camel's back as it were.

4. Each person's demons/triggers are unique. Some may not appear to be serious to others looking in. What one person considers trivial, another might construe as a crisis, and vice versa. People with mental illness should never be judged based on another's life experience. You don't have the same frame of reference so try not to be so quick to dismiss another's suffering.

5. Military personnel may have training and psychological profiling to try to predict those who will 'crack' under pressure. Obviously it may 'weed' out those less suited to military service, but completing training and passing tests will not then be a guarantee that someone will not eventually succumb to mental illness. Equally failing that training or profiling would not necessarily mean that those people would equally fail in a real life crisis. No-one knows how they would react in any given situation until they're faced with it.

6. Obviously some people will always try and cheat the system, and some may try to gain something from pretending to have PTSD or any other mental illness. BUT people also pretend to have physical injuries like whiplash or back problems after car accidents. HOWEVER doctors and medical professionals can usually identify those who are scamming versus those who are truly ill. ALSO nobody would see some fakers for whiplash in car accidents and then deny that whiplash exists.

7. In trying to deny the existence of mental illness or play it down, you are part of the problem. The stigma surrounding mental illness is very real and very damaging. By perpetuating the idea that 'real' men just 'suck it up' you are always implying that mental illness is within someone's control. Noone would seriously suggest to someone with a physical illness such as cancer that they should just 'suck it up'. Doing this is just offensive to those of us with some experience of mental illness, it's basic bigotry and should not be allowed. Not only because of the harm directly but also because it often leads to people not seeking help when they should, their needless suffering and in some cases suicide.

8. With regards to the OP and the wish to be prepared in an emergency. I find the idea of preparing for an emergency eminently sensible. Any precautions that one is willing to make with regards to helping oneself or others during a crisis should be commended. Obviously one can carry all the gear and do the training and end up freezing when confronted with real life. Similarly one can carry nothing but knowledge and some cash and end up improvising and saving lives. However it's impossible to know beforehand, and although previous experience will always count for a lot when confronted with a crisis it will not always be a guarantee of success. Therefore if somone wants to carry a trauma dressing (and train to know how to use one) be grateful as that's one more person that can potentially help you or a loved one during an emergency.
 

Janne

Sent off - Not allowed to play
Feb 10, 2016
12,330
2,294
Grand Cayman, Norway, Sweden
I feel you have nailed it. sorry that I wrote so badly.

The weeding out is something quite real, and for those people unfortunate as it can bring a hidden issue to the surface.
I have unfortunately experience of this, as my 'buddy' developed a serious issue after close to two years.
(in my unit we work in pairs, or multiples of)

Civilian preparation is important, type Red Cross and others. But we should not expect that all trained people can perform in a 'situation' as ideal, as they possibly can stop function mentally under the stress.

And we should not blame anybody is people behave not 100% correctly in these situations.

Eastern and Northern Caribbean experiences now a situation. I follow it quite closely as I am in the pool of Catastrophy responders here on Island. We follow, see what goes wrong and try to figure out how to minimize that in case our Island gets hit (again).

What we are starting to see now from those Islands is that most people behave as they should, they help each other and share the resources. Unfortunately a small group goes feral. Looting, destruction, violence.

Thank Gods countries have starting moving troops there. UK, France, Holland, US and the other Caribbean nations are sending military and police forces. Medical, engineering and keeping order.

Media has not reported about the medical need, but it is large. Cuts, stepping on sharp objects. No clean water, wounds + Tropics = infections.
 
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santaman2000

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jan 15, 2011
16,909
1,114
67
Florida
I have not served in the military, I admit, I am just a mere academic hack with the enlightenment tradition of evidence based research behind me. ....

Much, possibly most, of the things I've seen or done was as a civilian. A fair bit before I graduated High School. As I said, at the end of the day, that's just life.
 

KenThis

Full Member
Jun 14, 2016
825
121
Cardiff
Actually once the numbers are corrected for age (military members are overwhelmingly young) the rates are the same.

Do you have evidence for that or is this statement based on your personal experience too?
All the information I've found says there is a definite increase in suicide rates amongst both active military personnel and veterans (of any age group) compared to the base population. The only contention is the affect size, happy to read any reputable information you find on the subject.
Another tidbit of information for you
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_the_United_States#Military
It seems there were more suicides in active personnel than there were combat deaths in 2012. But I guess those people were just trying to scam the system.
 

santaman2000

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jan 15, 2011
16,909
1,114
67
Florida
Do you have evidence for that or is this statement based on your personal experience too?
All the information I've found says there is a definite increase in suicide rates amongst both active military personnel and veterans (of any age group) compared to the base population. The only contention is the affect size, happy to read any reputable information you find on the subject.
Another tidbit of information for you
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_the_United_States#Military
It seems there were more suicides in active personnel than there were combat deaths in 2012. But I guess those people were just trying to scam the system.

Yep; it's backed up by studies www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3496459/ By the way, wiki ain't a reliable source.
 
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santaman2000

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jan 15, 2011
16,909
1,114
67
Florida
....It seems there were more suicides in active personnel than there were combat deaths in 2012. But I guess those people were just trying to scam the system.

That more because combat deaths have been steadily going down for decades (better medical care in the field, better medical technology, better body armor, better overwhelming force against enemies, more use of remotely controlled combat vehicles/aircraft, etc.)

As I said, YOUNG people commit suicide at inordinate rates (military and civilian) We've just raised a weak generation.
 
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KenThis

Full Member
Jun 14, 2016
825
121
Cardiff
Yep; it's backed up by studies www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3496459/ By the way, wiki ain't a reliable source.

I'm aware wikipedia isn't 100% reliable, which is why I always check citations. However it is usually written in clear language which is easier to understand than most scientific papers, which is why I tend to reference it.
As for the review paper you cite, check it again - I may be wrong but I think it still finds that there is a definite increase in relative risk for suicide in veterans and active military personnel compared to base population. It also cites a number of credible reasons why this risk might decrease over time for older veterans.
 

Janne

Sent off - Not allowed to play
Feb 10, 2016
12,330
2,294
Grand Cayman, Norway, Sweden
I suspect todays modern drugs have something to do with the increasing suicide rates among the youth.
All the modern party drugs, be it 'legal highs' or illegal, screw with your brain big time.
LSD is mild compared. Hashish a nice relaxing herb.
 

santaman2000

M.A.B (Mad About Bushcraft)
Jan 15, 2011
16,909
1,114
67
Florida
....
As for the review paper you cite, check it again - I may be wrong but I think it still finds that there is a definite increase in relative risk for suicide in veterans and active military personnel compared to base population. It also cites a number of credible reasons why this risk might decrease over time for older veterans.

Yes, compared to BASE population (that's the population BEFORE correcting for age) Once the age correction is taken into account, the difference disappears. Suicide risk decreases over time for ALL people; veteran or not.
 

KenThis

Full Member
Jun 14, 2016
825
121
Cardiff
That more because combat deaths have been steadily going down for decades (better medical care in the field, better medical technology, better body armor, better overwhelming force against enemies, more use of remotely controlled combat vehicles/aircraft, etc.)

As I said, YOUNG people commit suicide at inordinate rates (military and civilian) We've just raised a weak generation.

You seem to have missed my point, I was trying to show that even in the modern day military where combat deaths are relatively rare, and the incidence of traumatic events would also seemingly be rare, the number of suicides (incidents of mental illness) is still very high, especially given the position that those in the military are somehow mentally tougher than the general population. It was also to show that at least some those you accuse of faking are perhaps actually unwell.

According to the review article you cited 4x more young military personnel commit suicide compared to the base population.
It's almost as if the training given to the military (and one's ability to complete training) does not prevent the onset of mental illness/PTSD, but rather being in the military seems to exacerbate the potential for mental illness.

As for a weak generation - I always find that kind of argument - coming as it usually does from the baby boom generation to be a little rich. It can be shown that your generation had it considerably easier than the current generation, but that might be more socio-economics and politics so perhaps should be avoided.
 

KenThis

Full Member
Jun 14, 2016
825
121
Cardiff
Yes, compared to BASE population (that's the population BEFORE correcting for age) Once the age correction is taken into account, the difference disappears. Suicide risk decreases over time for ALL people; veteran or not.

Are you trolling or what?
You've said PTSD is not real. I show you evidence of increased suicide rates for military personnel (those who would be thought to have an increased risk of PTSD and stress related mental health issues). You refuse to believe me and cite a paper that says what I've been saying, that there is a definite increase in suicides amongst active personnel and veterans compared to base population. My contention is this proves PTSD is real. I really don't understand what you're trying to tell me.

Also the main reason suicide rates decrease over time is because you can't commit suicide twice. Whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger etc...
 

KenThis

Full Member
Jun 14, 2016
825
121
Cardiff
Yes, its what he does.

Thanks for that. I've learned that the autism can mean I take a lot of things at face value, thereore I fall for trolling far more than I feel I should.
If anyone ever wants to pm me a list of known trolls I'd appreciate it.
 

Janne

Sent off - Not allowed to play
Feb 10, 2016
12,330
2,294
Grand Cayman, Norway, Sweden
Just to remind everybody what the initial query was.......

The current Government advice is based on the reaction and skill level of the vast majority of people.
The advice to Run is good, as if you stay to help you might become a victim yourself, be it a secondary explosion, spreading fire or another nutcase terrorist.

Nature equipped us with certain reactions for a reason. We are hardwired to flee danger.






Recent events got me thinking ...... what if I found myself in the midst of a terror attack , say for example Bataclan , Manchester Arena or maybe an explosion on a train or underground ?

I am aware of current government advice to run , hide tell ......

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/stay-safe-film

but what if you can't ?

I thought about what kit might be most useful , my solution is not exhaustive and assumes you will have your bag , phone or access to your pocket dump .

I came up with these .....
42798c5a73cc64eb5b3da3ecd8bc19f1.jpg


640cb1722dfb6cee6816a021ca6b9116.jpg


4374f274b9ef5c8ec32c4ac0a31a3f70.jpg


One is for my wife who travels extensively on the train and underground , the other for me .

Please bear in mind these grew from thinking about various scenarios possible , I know some on here don't hold much truck for doomsday mentality , that wasn't my motivation , it was purely thinking about how to stay alive and attract help in the immediacy of an attack .

My thinking is , trauma dressing , gloves and tourniquet ( for worst case / living saving use and following appropriate training to use) for treatment of traumatic injury , cyalume stick and whistle to attract help in a chaotic and confused environment . Other items could be considered as per individual requirements.

Thanks for looking , constructive comment welcome .......,



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