The Wrong Climate Problem?

[Broch]

Are we preparing for the wrong climate change problem?

A 1 in 6 chance is a little high for my liking.

From Nature:

Recent data from ice cores suggest that the probability of an eruption with a magnitude 10 or 100 times larger than Tonga in this century is 1 in 6. In the past, eruptions of this size have caused abrupt climate change and the collapse of civilizations.

Huge volcanic eruptions: time to prepare

More must be done to forecast and try to manage globally disruptive volcanic eruptions. The risks are greater than people think.

www.nature.com

 

[Mesquite]

Hmmm, not a lot we can do if a volcano erupts but 1 in 6 chances is rather concerning

 

[Toddy]

Not trying to downplay the possibility of climate changing volcanic eruption, but I think many are a tad more concerned about the potential for nuclear fallout.
Chernobyl was bad enough, the hill farms took years to be cleared.

 

[Broch]

I agree to some extent, but risk assessment looks at the likelihood of something happening - a major volcanic eruption is a certainty (in some timescale), a nuclear explosion is not. A major volcanic eruption could be orders of magnitude worse, in terms of world wide disruption, than Chernobyl.

But, yeh, we seem to be threatened from all sides at the moment

 

[Scottieoutdoors]

Major volcanic eruption causing issues for a nuclear plant? Tsunami an fukushima but worse?

 

[Fadcode]

The one under Yellowstone is the one to worry about.

 

[Toddy]

Well, let's be practical about it; what actually threatens the British Isles ?

The last thing was the volcanic eruptions in Iceland, previous to that it was another Icelandic one that was in the late 1700's.....
Etna grumbles along, and erupts pretty constantly, but doesn't seem to affect us, and even if the entire island was blasted to kingdom come I don't think there'd be a tsunami that would wash up here.

Norway had a huge slippage and that did cause a huge one here, but their volcanoes are mostly on the ocean floor, 3000m down. I have it in mind that there's a huge one way up north though, covered in glaciers, iirc.
Maybe ?

Germany has active volcanoes, gassy one under lakes and the like.

Where else ? the eastern Med ?



Far east, ring of fire ? Yellowstone or more Mount St. Helens ? or Pacific ?

Clouded skies seem to be the worst that we get, and then it pours and helps clear it out. The particulate matter actually helps the rain along.

M

 

[bobnewboy]

….Or the good chance that a large chunk of the Canaries will split off in a volcanic eruption and cause a transatlantic tsunami. It’s not so far off happening apparently.

We might see some waves here in the SW/South, but nothing compared with what our overseas cousins might get.

 

[Fadcode]

At least Nuclear installations can be built in areas where it's less likely they will be affected by Volcanic eruptions or Tsunamis, like much of the damage caused by fire and flood, the placing of houses need to be looked at, it's nice to live by the sea, but don't ask people on the East coast if it was a good idea, when their houses are sliding into the sea due to coastal erosion, living in valleys well the chance of being flooded out is higher than living uphill, we really need to look at the ways we can manage nature, water, etc, to prevent as much damage as we can, historically we have always lived in coastal areas, maybe it's not such a good idea after all.

 

[Toddy]

We've built on the best lands, and the river flood plains are just that. Now we're paying for it.

 

[Scottieoutdoors]

….Or the good chance that a large chunk of the Canaries will split off in a volcanic eruption and cause a transatlantic tsunami. It’s not so far off happening apparently.

We might see some waves here in the SW/South, but nothing compared with what our overseas cousins might get.

Did actually spend a few nights camping under Teide, the volcano on tenerife earlier this year... hadn't realised it was overdue..

 

[Broch]

Well, let's be practical about it; what actually threatens the British Isles ?

The threat is really the disruption that a magnitude 7 or 8 volcanic eruption will have on food supplies globally. The UK imports about 50% of its food and relies on overseas crops for a lot.

It will also affect the weather patterns and reverse the temperature rise that has occurred over 50+ years overnight. Good or bad?

 

[Wander]

To add to the doom-mongering, I do believe the sky may fall on our heads as well.

 

[Scottieoutdoors]

The threat is really the disruption that a magnitude 7 or 8 volcanic eruption will have on food supplies globally. The UK imports about 50% of its food and relies on overseas crops for a lot.

It will also affect the weather patterns and reverse the temperature rise that has occurred over 50+ years overnight. Good or bad?

I'm guessing hunting rabbits and the like would be higher on our agendas...

To add to the doom-mongering, I do believe the sky may fall on our heads as well.

Pffft, I've got a hard hat, I'll be alright!

 

[TLM]

I do believe the sky may fall on our heads as well.

Didn't Getafix have a potion for that too?

 

[Broch]

To add to the doom-mongering, I do believe the sky may fall on our heads as well.

Kind of my point really

The original American 19thC version of Chicken Little/Henny Penny had all the foolish animals eaten by a fox in the end - I wonder who the fox is in today's story?

 

[British Red]

The one under Yellowstone is the one to worry about.

In many ways that's the one not to worry about. If a Super Caldera lets go, no amount of pre preparation will help. Risks to manage are those who's probability can be diminished or who's impact can be reduced or avoided

Sorry.

Risk management nerd. Ignore me.

 

[TLM]

If a Super Caldera lets go, no amount of pre preparation will help. Risks to manage are those who's probability can be diminished or who's impact can be reduced or avoided

Except on this one, on the few analyzed cases on the northern hemisphere moving to Oz actually helps. From the articles I have read on the subject the sleeping volcano under Campi Flegrei might be the most dangerous one in Europe.

Not sure if moving south just on the probabilities would make much sense.

But on more conventional threats is goes exactly like that.

 

[Mesquite]

The one under Yellowstone is the one to worry about.

Apparently that's nothing to worry about now.

The magma chamber under Yellowstone is supposed to be 85-95% percent solidified, though still hot, now and scientists are unsure if there's enough magma left to feed an eruption. Also, if they go on the duration between the last 3 super eruptions there's approximately 1000,000 years to go until the next one

 

[Broch]

Apparently that's nothing to worry about now.

The magma chamber under Yellowstone is supposed to be 85-95% percent solidified, though still hot, now and scientists are unsure if there's enough magma left to feed an eruption. Also, if they go on the duration between the last 3 super eruptions there's approximately 1000,000 years to go until the next one

The latest research shows that climate changing eruptions (magnitude 7) happen about once every 625 years, and magnitude-8 events (also called super-eruptions) about once every 14,300 years. A magnitude 7 is enough to cause famine in a large part of the world and reduce average temperatures by 1C (apparently).