Oil depletion ...
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ChrisKavanaugh
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Gasoline is at record USA prices. I just paid $2.34 USD ,89 octane for one US gallon. I can hear the laughter allready. I know how much higher it is in europe. But, I am in a land of homicidal morons who think SUVs are the moral equivellant and justification of a panzer grenadier. It does get old, stuck behind some latte sucking asphalt pounder with a coffee in one hand and cell in the other making a turn on the installment plan. Of course, once in a straight line they accelerate to 85 MPH. I once owned a Austin Mini Cooper 1100cc S type. Right hand drive, scarlet red with a union jack roof. Lovely machine, outsped and outturned an irate biker on a Harley. Of course, he was doubly suprised when I unfolded my 6'2" frame and produced a Mk IV Webley. I sadly gave it up trying to negotiate around a 18 wheel Lorrie one day and almost getting killed. Every now and then humanity takes a quantum leap. I won't state forward or backward, but we are witnessing the dawn of one. I for one KNOW how to walk. I look forward to watching the next winnowing in the gene pool.
ChrisKavanaugh said:
Oh, I am!
Here in the UK the average price per litre is about 84p, about $1.54 a liter or $5.83 a US gallon.
Yep, I know how to walk too ... and that could be useful one day, as will be foraging skill, water collection and purification ... etc.
I hope our children and their children forgive us.
Chris, you truely are brilliant :-D. You should move over here, you seem to be more English than most of us.
Well it is an interesting read and the guy definitely paints a grim picture for the future.
Something that definitely provokes deep thought about our future and that of the kids.
Something that definitely provokes deep thought about our future and that of the kids.
Having read the whole of wolf at the door have any of us got ideas for the prospective way ahead post the oil age. :?:
(preferably something a bit more constructive than "it doesn't matter to me because I will be dead" :shock: as someone I know stated).
You know the bit about returning to a simpler time (smaller scale farming useing a blend of modern and ancient techniques) for starters.
Alternative means of energy which are local rather than national, use of natural gasses (methane) politicians seem to have plenty to spare :-D
Use of natural products (wood, cotton and wool) to replace those which will no longer be freely available.
The return to pony and trap as the major means of transport (not too different for me I am in the Westcountry where we only got the wheel last month :-D )
(preferably something a bit more constructive than "it doesn't matter to me because I will be dead" :shock: as someone I know stated).
You know the bit about returning to a simpler time (smaller scale farming useing a blend of modern and ancient techniques) for starters.
Alternative means of energy which are local rather than national, use of natural gasses (methane) politicians seem to have plenty to spare :-D
Use of natural products (wood, cotton and wool) to replace those which will no longer be freely available.
The return to pony and trap as the major means of transport (not too different for me I am in the Westcountry where we only got the wheel last month :-D )
It's more complicated than you'd think.
Our society relies on petrochemicals for so many things other than fuel. Plastics, fabrics, medicines.....yadda, yadda, yadda.
There's also the fact that the demographics of most Western nations have been radically altered by the car. We no longer live where we work or even within pony & trap distance.
The skills to live without the support of modern society have long been lost and there's a heck of a lot more to it than what most of us practice as "bushcraft".
Whenever I read articles like the one linked, I am struck by one overwhelming impression. That even if we start adjusting our society today (and we're not showing any real signs of doing so) that oil will run out or become prohibitively expensive before we are ready to do without it. IMO we have one truly effective option in the short term and that is to consume less than we are doing. Extending the life of the oil reserves we have to the point at which technology and society is ready and able to function without it. Of course that view is anathema to just about every major Government in the Western World....
Our society relies on petrochemicals for so many things other than fuel. Plastics, fabrics, medicines.....yadda, yadda, yadda.
There's also the fact that the demographics of most Western nations have been radically altered by the car. We no longer live where we work or even within pony & trap distance.
The skills to live without the support of modern society have long been lost and there's a heck of a lot more to it than what most of us practice as "bushcraft".
Whenever I read articles like the one linked, I am struck by one overwhelming impression. That even if we start adjusting our society today (and we're not showing any real signs of doing so) that oil will run out or become prohibitively expensive before we are ready to do without it. IMO we have one truly effective option in the short term and that is to consume less than we are doing. Extending the life of the oil reserves we have to the point at which technology and society is ready and able to function without it. Of course that view is anathema to just about every major Government in the Western World....
I was reading an article yesterday from these folks:
http://www.peakoil.net/
Good stuff in there.
Also, this morning, I was reading an article in French weekly magazine "Marianne" while on the train to work.
This article compares oil prices, in purchasing power equivalent, between now, and the two oil crises of 1973 and 1979. The current price of around $40 is equivalent to the price during the 1973 crisis, and to reach the equivalent of the 1979 crisis, the barrel would have to go up to $80.
But in both cases, the forces pushing up the price were geopolitical and geostrategical.
This time, although there is a small geostrategical component (unrest in Iraq and the rest of the middle east), the main component is the huge demand in China. In fact, the rapidly increasing industrial ouput of the Chinese economy, while providing the affluent West with cheap consumer goods, is pushing up the prices of most raw materials.
Not only that, with the increasing internal demand for feedstuff for cattle and poultry, China is pushing up the world market prices for soya beans.
You wait till every man in China is drinking ten pints of beer per week, the price of barley will go through the roof, pushing up the price of beer in England.
There's no getting round it; we're going to have to get used to the idea of things costing realistically high prices, after having had continually cheaper and cheaper goods over the last century or three.
Keith.
http://www.peakoil.net/
Good stuff in there.
Also, this morning, I was reading an article in French weekly magazine "Marianne" while on the train to work.
This article compares oil prices, in purchasing power equivalent, between now, and the two oil crises of 1973 and 1979. The current price of around $40 is equivalent to the price during the 1973 crisis, and to reach the equivalent of the 1979 crisis, the barrel would have to go up to $80.
But in both cases, the forces pushing up the price were geopolitical and geostrategical.
This time, although there is a small geostrategical component (unrest in Iraq and the rest of the middle east), the main component is the huge demand in China. In fact, the rapidly increasing industrial ouput of the Chinese economy, while providing the affluent West with cheap consumer goods, is pushing up the prices of most raw materials.
Not only that, with the increasing internal demand for feedstuff for cattle and poultry, China is pushing up the world market prices for soya beans.
You wait till every man in China is drinking ten pints of beer per week, the price of barley will go through the roof, pushing up the price of beer in England.
There's no getting round it; we're going to have to get used to the idea of things costing realistically high prices, after having had continually cheaper and cheaper goods over the last century or three.
Keith.
:biggthump :super:
Well said Great Pebble, my thoughts exactly. Its a sick disposable age that we live in when we could be building stuff to last. Roads that go round town rather than through them! what use is that. Out of town supermarkets ! and the majority of modern buildings designed to have a 50 year lifespan. A videorecorder that will brak within 2 years Grrrrrrrrrr
Sorry but it sickens me and no politician seems to give a damn. THe only important thing being economics rather than the welfare of their constituants, a future for their children and grandchildren.
A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE>
i'll just go sit in a dark room for a bit till i calm down
:twisted:
Rich
Well said Great Pebble, my thoughts exactly. Its a sick disposable age that we live in when we could be building stuff to last. Roads that go round town rather than through them! what use is that. Out of town supermarkets ! and the majority of modern buildings designed to have a 50 year lifespan. A videorecorder that will brak within 2 years Grrrrrrrrrr
Sorry but it sickens me and no politician seems to give a damn. THe only important thing being economics rather than the welfare of their constituants, a future for their children and grandchildren.
A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE>
i'll just go sit in a dark room for a bit till i calm down
:twisted:
Rich
Guys believe it or not I do appreciate the fact that we rely upon technology and the petrochemical industry far too much.
In my spare time I am a senior opto-electronics test technician (I work with, build, design, test equipment and products that use dense wavelength digital multiplexing technology to combine laser wavelenghts down a fibre optic) and computer engineer.
I do not drive (even pony and trap), the comments that were made were designed to get suggestions as to what can be done. Hence the smaller scale farming which would in turn provide more work and less reason to travel and the comments on the use of natural products to replace those which we will lose. This includes the pharmecutical industry, the use of digitalis for heart conditions has been going on for years.
In my spare time I am a senior opto-electronics test technician (I work with, build, design, test equipment and products that use dense wavelength digital multiplexing technology to combine laser wavelenghts down a fibre optic) and computer engineer.
I do not drive (even pony and trap), the comments that were made were designed to get suggestions as to what can be done. Hence the smaller scale farming which would in turn provide more work and less reason to travel and the comments on the use of natural products to replace those which we will lose. This includes the pharmecutical industry, the use of digitalis for heart conditions has been going on for years.
I appreciate what you were after, but don't believe there's a magic answer.
Our society, at least since the end of the second world war has preached that we need to spend, spend, spend in order to be good, happy people.
In order to do that we have to work, work, work to make the money to spend, spend, spend. And while we're work, work, working, we're make, make, making - Things for other people to spend, spend, spend on......
Try and tell someone (average bod) that he has to spend less and make do with less "stuff" and he'll .... well, he won't vote for you, put it like that.
Mek!
Our society, at least since the end of the second world war has preached that we need to spend, spend, spend in order to be good, happy people.
In order to do that we have to work, work, work to make the money to spend, spend, spend. And while we're work, work, working, we're make, make, making - Things for other people to spend, spend, spend on......
Try and tell someone (average bod) that he has to spend less and make do with less "stuff" and he'll .... well, he won't vote for you, put it like that.
Mek!
Great Pebble said:
Politics isn't about having the right answers. It's about getting people to belive you. I'm sure you all know that, and admit that it's bloody annoying. But there we are, that's the world we live in.
Why do you think that BP changed name? From "British Petroleum" to "Beyond Petroleum"?
There are some people up there in "Big Oil" who realise that the blackstuff isn't going to last for ever (not even another 50 years), and we need to do something about it NOW.
But at the same time, these people re trying to fill their pockets, er, I mean, fulfill their current contractual obligations, and er, ease the world's transition to sustainable energy sources. Or something like that.
In the meantime, the only way to get Joe Public to reduce his cinsumption of oil or other natural resources is through the single mechanism that everybody understands everywhere on Earth: shekels. You burn oil, you pay. "Attaching a dollar value" (to use the economist's terminology) to a thing is the *only* way to make a significant number of people take notice.
Keith.
Uh-oh. Dangerous course of action that.
First and foremost on the principle front, it's an abdication of responsibility, expecting a government to do a job (through making petrochemicals more expensive) that we should be doing ourselves (by responsible use of said products). Such abdications are IMHO part of the general global malaise.
Leaving aside the obvious near impossibility of being elected to power on a ticket which promises to make everything more expensive, the possible crux of the matter is that in making fuel prohibitively expensive to the average consumer you'll put it entirely beyond the reach of those on the lower end of the income scale. Who, in many cases are the people who'll actually need it most. By the same token it'll cripple the rural economy, which ironically is the sector we'll have to build up if we wish to make the transition away from an oil based economy.
First and foremost on the principle front, it's an abdication of responsibility, expecting a government to do a job (through making petrochemicals more expensive) that we should be doing ourselves (by responsible use of said products). Such abdications are IMHO part of the general global malaise.
Leaving aside the obvious near impossibility of being elected to power on a ticket which promises to make everything more expensive, the possible crux of the matter is that in making fuel prohibitively expensive to the average consumer you'll put it entirely beyond the reach of those on the lower end of the income scale. Who, in many cases are the people who'll actually need it most. By the same token it'll cripple the rural economy, which ironically is the sector we'll have to build up if we wish to make the transition away from an oil based economy.
Some wise words there Pebble - and its also something that Al Quida have realsied hence their attempts to destabilise the Saudi Government and Royal Family. If they can do it and take control of the area they would own over a 1/3 of the worlds oil - or in more realistic terms one hell of a might nut cracker that could easily cripple the west or lead to the 'mother of all wars!'
Adi - have been reading the 'coming global super storm' you sent me - fantastic work. I find the specualtion about pre-historic civilisation very interesting (havent got past there yet though so am looking forward tot he rest of it) - cheers.
Adi - have been reading the 'coming global super storm' you sent me - fantastic work. I find the specualtion about pre-historic civilisation very interesting (havent got past there yet though so am looking forward tot he rest of it) - cheers.
