Bird Flu?

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Very little.
That is either because Americans are much more easily panicked than the people on this side of the Atlantic, Brits in particular,
OR
In the typical European and British way, we won't deal with a problem until it is beating on the door :D

In either case. What exactly is one supposed to do about the possibility of an epidemic that hasn't happened yet. Stock pile food, water and surgical masks while cutting all ties to your neighbors?

What was the gist of your meeting?
 
Here (NL) we had twice a call from the government to keep all birds in side. Privately kept birds (the ones for eggs, birds in private collections, racing pidgeons, etc) that is - thus not migrating birds :p before someone is getting smart ;)

C_Claycomb said:
In the typical European and British way, we won't deal with a problem until it is beating on the door :D

Americans are idem dito ... just have a look at New Orleans with the dykes ...
Dutch engineers are there to help them out :D 'cause they cant sort it themselves. Problem already entered through the door though ... :(

Isn't the bird flu the same as the Spanish Flu, which was out there in the early 1900's - and caused some millions of deaths?? IIRC I must have read it somewhere ... :confused:

Pierre, what was that bird flu meeting about?
 
Spanish Flu and Avian Influenza H5N1 are different strains of influenze.

At the moment H5N1 has NOT aquired the mutation to pass from human to human, it can only be caught from direct contact with infected birds or their droppings. The concern is that it could mutate and spread human to human. The most likely reason for this if it is passed to pigs which can get both bird and other types of flu. This could result in transfer of genetic material between the strains.

Guess who was supposed to be in an epidemiology exam this morning if the car had not got rear ended on the M62 :cussing:
 
As a GP (read 'Family Physician', PG) we are getting lot of info from the Government about pandemic flu.

We are certainly overdue for another flu pandemic. Whether it will be a mutated H5N1 bird flu or something else is not known.
 
Meeting was bleak on several levels. Said when (not if) bird flu mutates gov't estimates half of Americans will get it - half of these will die (much higher estimates than I've heard on news). At opening of pandemic - there is to be no air travel - no travel by car between towns - and all residents are to remain indoors - for anywhere from five weeks to three months. I can imagine what fun that will be - in a country where everyone thinks freedom of the road is provided for in the constitution.

We are personally to prepare three months food and water for our our families.

They are fitting each of us for a series of masks - dust masks and surgical type masks are good for not spreading the disease to others - but provide no personal protection.

There were projected breakdowns in food service, utilities, etc. and discussions concerning martial law, availability of fuel for emergency services, weapons, tactics, etc.

They went over the fragile nature of our supply and demand system as it is currently set up in our global economy - no food stocks warehoused - as in years past, and some rather gloomy projections on how long it would take to rectify economic damage caused by such a pandemic.

As you and I both know, it is in the nature of folks whose job consists of warning other folks about natural disasters - to make their warnings as dire as possible. but I was surprised by the tenor of this meeting, the numbers in the statistics they were throwing around, and their advice to us on how we were to deal with the problems that might arise from such a situation. Their projections on civil unrest were also dire - especially for larger cities.

After Y2K, I have some problems with preparing complete menus for three months, but I may put aside 100 pounds of rice and 50 pounds of beans. Cost is minimal, and it would be something to eat if there is a problem. We have a lot of wild rice stored as well. We also have a freezer full of meat and vegetables which could be dried - if necessary. As to water - we have our own well - and an old hand pump, and pipe, out in the shed - should power fail. We still have wringer and tubs for washing clothing, two 25 gallon kettles for heating water, an outhouse and sauna for toiletry needs, and if it were to happen in the colder months - we could move into the bunkhouse - which is easily heated with wood - with which we are well stocked. Worst case scenario - we have a cabin, up in the woods, on 1/4 section of forest land which we could canoe to - if necessary.

Thing is - lots of folks don't have these kinds of back up systems in place.

PG
 
C_Claycomb said:
Very little.
That is either because Americans are much more easily panicked than the people on this side of the Atlantic, Brits in particular,

:) I could comment on panic. I've taken several of your countrymen on wilderness canoe trips - but perhaps it is best left unsaid.

PG
 
Pierre, thanks for sharing.

Can someone explain why surgical masks don't offer the wearer any protection? I know that they aren't as good a barrier for incoming germs as for outgoing, but I would have thought they still had some value?

I think that one of the things that causes a problem for people thinking about "preparedness" over here, when reading the suggestions that come from the US, is that our society is so different.

Having three months of food stockpiled is fine if you live in a fairly typical US subdivision, you have a basement and anything up to 3 acres of land around your home. Its harder when you live in an apartment on the 8th floor, or in a typical UK property crammed in with 11 other dwellings per acre. We don't have coffin size freezers, or space to dig cisterns, or room for hundreds of litres of water.

That being the case, such preparations are a much bigger deal requireing much more of an investment in time and money. It could get lonely when your "back-up system" preparations make you look to your neighbors like you are prepareing for the end of the world.
 
Pierre,
That's pretty heavy stuff. Can I ask why you were briefed in such detail? Are meetings like that happening in every company across the country or are you being briefed because you are close to the "front line" (e.g. health, emergency, logistics, military, etc?)

Cheers,
Neil
 
C_Claycomb said:
..snip..
Americans are much more easily panicked than ... Brits

I remember a flour mill strike, and a water works strike, that brought on panic buying in shops in the UK.

On my last trip back there, my parents told me of a patrol (gasoline) panic.

It was started by announcements in the press along the lines of "plans to blockade refineries will lead to fuel restrictions, but there's no need to panic or to hoard fuel".

What happened?

Station managers bumping up the price by 25%, queues outside filling stations, people filling up car tanks and jerry cans, fights on the forecourt, traffic backed up on main roads leading to filling stations...

Two days later, after no restrictions, everything got back to normal except for the people whose fingers had been burned were now complaining that they'd gone to all that trouble ensuring they had enough fuel to do essential travel (i.e., to the supermarketand off-license) for nothing!

What's the best way to instill panic? Shout out "Now there's no need for panic, but...."

K.
 
ilovemybed said:
Pierre,
That's pretty heavy stuff. Can I ask why you were briefed in such detail? Are meetings like that happening in every company across the country or are you being briefed because you are close to the "front line" (e.g. health, emergency, logistics, military, etc?)

Cheers,
Neil

Peace officer. Briefing was part of our emergency preparedness planning. Been a lot more of that since 9/11. From what they say - anything other than a custom made form fitted mask just doesn't keep out the virus (they want me to shave off my moustache!).

PG
 
C_Claycomb said:
Pierre, thanks for sharing.
I think that one of the things that causes a problem for people thinking about "preparedness" over here, when reading the suggestions that come from the US, is that our society is so different.

Having three months of food stockpiled is fine if you live in a fairly typical US subdivision, you have a basement and anything up to 3 acres of land around your home. Its harder when you live in an apartment on the 8th floor, or in a typical UK property crammed in with 11 other dwellings per acre. We don't have coffin size freezers, or space to dig cisterns, or room for hundreds of litres of water.

That being the case, such preparations are a much bigger deal requireing much more of an investment in time and money. It could get lonely when your "back-up system" preparations make you look to your neighbors like you are prepareing for the end of the world.

Same is true with many here. Where I live, out in the woods and on a lake - and the infrastructure on my property - allow me a certain amount of preparedness with very little effort. The same is not true of my son, who lives in a city apartment, or my parents, who've recently moved out of their home of 30 years, and into an apartment.

A minimal amount of preparedness can be achieved however, simply by stocking the basic staples I've mentioned. I'm not sure what a 50 pound bag of rice costs in England - but it sure isn't much here. Not sure I'd want to eat rice for every meal for three months, but it beats eating nothing. Water from the tap, stored in things like used milk containers (ours are plastic gallon jugs), will keep for quite some time.

I know of people who stocked their entire basement with food enough for several years - prior to Y2K. In retrospect they appear to be on the fruitcake fringe (though I'm sure I would have been kicking myself if they'd been right). That is not what I'm advocating.

Actually, I'm not advocating anything. All I'm thinking, personally, is some extra "emergency" food and water set by just might not be a bad idea if it can be done at reasonable cost - and some considerations as to how I will deal with certain emergency situations - should they arise - are, to me, a part of what "bushcraft" is all about.

PG
 
pierre girard said:
Meeting was bleak on several levels. Said when (not if) bird flu mutates gov't estimates half of Americans will get it - half of these will die (much higher estimates than I've heard on news).

It's not possible to predict any of this with any degree of certainty. The above prediction is rather more gloomy than those of the Center for Disease Control, Atlanta, and those of the UK equivalent, the Health Protection Agency. But no-one really knows

H5N1 bird flu is definitely worrying as it can affect people, it can cause severe disease (about 50% mortality of those known to have contracted it in Asia) and it has proven ability to mutate. At the present time human-to-human transmission is extremely rare, but there is a definite possibility it may mutate to allow this and then we will have a very, very serious problem.

Pandemic flu is inevitable, but you can't predict when or what strain will cause it. The 'Spanish flu' H1N1 Pandemic in 1918 killed 40 million world wide and 250 000 in the UK. The current UK pandemic plan assumes 25% of the population will get it and 50 000 will die. As you can imagine, with 25% of workers off sick, there will be a lot of disruption.

'Ordinary' seasonal flu usually kills the old and frail; pandemic flu is often lethal to the young and fit. In 1918 half the deaths were in fit young adults.

Another problem is that pandemic flu comes in two waves - with more infections in the second wave. So just when things seem to be normalising.....

Surgical masks will not stop you getting pandemic flu. They might stop a sufferer from spreading it, a bit.

As PG says, the current 'just-in-time' system of fuel and goods supply is extremely vulnerable to disruption.

As has been mentioned above, panic buying is a well established phenomenon.


Reliable info is at: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic/keyfacts.htm

I have to say that I think Pierre's preparations are entirely reasonable.
 

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