Northern lights on their way

[caorach]

The forecast is for an extreme geomagnetic storm at some point in the next 48 hours, so arriving on 2nd or 3rd November.

It looks like it could be a biggie and that aurora will be visible across the whole of the UK assuming that it arrives during the hours of darkness and that you have cloud free skies.

The predictions are that aurora will be seen as far south as Portugal, so no excuses for those of you in the south of England who claim you need to go to Alaska because you can't see them there. You can, and will, if you make the effort.

In order to see them, assuming it arrives in darkness and you have relatively cloud free skies, it is worth considering the following:

You will not see them by looking out the window during the commercial break in Emmerdale Farm.
You need dark skies so get away from light polluted areas if you can.
Give your eyes at least 15 minutes to adapt to the darkness.
The lights can be "peaky" so you often have to hang about for some time to get to see them at their best.

I shot the following timelapse on the shore at Shawbost, on the west of the Isle of Lewis, a few weeks back. The storm predicted for the next 48 hours is expected to be much, much stronger than this one was. If you are impatient then watch from about 1 minute on:

https://youtu.be/LboXV-NXJ8o

 

[Jaeger]

Thanks for that Caorach,

Nice video.

Clear skies or not just wondering if we'll see owt through the myriad of firework smoke (set off illegally!) pre Nov 5th!

Hope you don't work for the Met office - their last sun eclipse prediction was underwhelming.

Err - Emmerdale 'Farm'?

 

[caorach]

Well, it's called something like that. I don't own a TV as I'm subjected to enough cheap rubbish in a day without buying a machine to spew it at me when I'm minding my own business so I'm a bit out of touch with such things

However, I don't work for the Met Office so there is a slight chance that my prediction might be accurate!

 

[nic a char]

I don't work for the Met Office so there is a slight chance that my prediction might be accurate![/QUOTE]
How very true - only their records are accurate.

 

[caorach]

I don't work for the Met Office so there is a slight chance that my prediction might be accurate!

How very true - only their records are accurate.[/QUOTE]

It depends on which records - the term "since records began" has become commonly used and in fact I heard it on the radio this morning in relation to the weather yesterday. On investigation I discover that, in this case, records began in 1910. I've seen "records begin" as recently as 1960 and, of course, we have good, reliable, calibrated weather records going back much, much, much further than that.

As was said about Tony Blair but could apply here - With the Met Office the future is certain, it's the past that keeps changing.

 

[steveih]

Foggy up in the northeast tonight

 

[Adze]

Northwest too - I can barely see streetlamp on the other side of the road, let alone any lights in the sky

 

[caorach]

Foggy up in the northeast tonight

Seems to be the story just about everywhere tonight unfortunately. On a positive note the incoming solar wind hasn't hit as yet so there is currently (2000ish Monday night) nothing to see. Let's hope a few people get clear skies when it does hit.

 

[hog]

Thick fog and cloud cover put an quick end to a non starter here on the island.

 

[caorach]

Thick fog and cloud cover put an quick end to a non starter here on the island.

The main event hasn't hit as yet. It looks like we entered the edge of the solar wind stream about 0700 this morning but it is still expected that we are going to take a big hit and it seems likely that will happen in the next 24 hours and probably sooner rather than later. So, if you have clear skies tonight then it is well worth a look.

As ever it is impossible to forecast this with any certainty so it is always a balance of probabilities thing.

 

[pteron]

Thanks for the heads up.

Made me do a search and I found a service from the university of lancaster called aurora watch UK which will email you when the aurora is likely to be visible.

Sign up here: http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/cgi-bin/subscribe

 

[ged]

...
Made me do a search and I found a service from the university of lancaster called aurora watch UK which will email you when the aurora is likely to be visible.

Sign up here: http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/cgi-bin/subscribe

Bear in mind that their service is based on magnetic field readings, so it won't give you much, if any, advance warning.
In nearly ten years of being subscribed to their list I've never seen anything based on its warnings.

Still hoping for clear skies tonight.

 

[caorach]

Thanks for the heads up.

Made me do a search and I found a service from the university of lancaster called aurora watch UK which will email you when the aurora is likely to be visible.

Sign up here: http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/cgi-bin/subscribe

This page is really useful for watching the output from their magnotometer but, as mentioned by ged, for some reason their alerts system seems a little unreliable.

I suspect this might be because working out when there might be a good display is a bit more of an art than a science so the computer program they used to generate the alerts often misses the mark. Also it sends the alerts after the event, rather than before it. Now, by the nature of their system this is how it has to work and they are dong a good job but if you really want to see the lights then you are better watching the magnotometer output yourself and using your judgement. You also need to factor in the forecast conditions, which their alerts don't do, to allow you to react quickly to any events. For example you know that a good display is possible tonight and so if you see a sharp leading edge on the magnotometer then you will get out there to look but waiting on the automated system you might not get a text alert for another hour until the computer does its sums, and by that time it might be over.

At present conditions still look "lumpy" but probably not enough to spark significant lights over much of the UK however any decent hit in these unsettled conditions could be enough to set the upper atmosphere going in a big way. Be aware however that the display might be short lived - one chap i work with was in Norway recently and they got about 5 minutes of really good aurora one night that just came out of nowhere and vanished again.

If the aurora are something that you really want to see then you have to put some effort in and you have to be prepared to sit out all night for a crazy 5 minutes. You should also be aware that all the TV footage, and the footage I posted above, tends to be "timelapse" of some sort and so the real event will probably not be as fast as this.

 

[Harvestman]

I went out and drove up to the local highpoint to try to get above the fog for a look. Found thicker fog Missed my turn off and ended up with one of the most terrifying descents down that hill I have ever made. A twisty road with poor line markings, no barriers and a huge drop to one side, in thick fog, at 1am is not funny. Special thanks to the idiot in the car behind me who decided to tailgate me all the way down.

 

[bobskie]

Been foggy all day here il have a look later on and see if its cleared up but won't be making any special trips too see them, I have always wanted to witness the northern lights though shame its foggy!

 

[caorach]

There are a few reports of sightings now (2025 Tuesday) with most coming from the North East of Scotland where there must be some clear skies so there are aurora to be seen. At the minute I think it is a fairly modest display.

 

[bobskie]

Skies didn't clear here so didn't bother even trying, still foggy now! Did anyone on here see them?

 

[mousey]

I'm in NE Scotland and it was lovely and clear till about 7.00 when the cubs were trying to do the astronomy badge and identify 3 constellations, when a serious fog came down - so bad that you couldn't see the top of the local war monument which is 70ft tall... it's still a bit foggy now