Birdflu hits Sweden

[HuBBa]

Dunno if this is the right forum for this but could be useful information for those of you Bushcrafters who plan to visit Sweden. We now have a lot of confirmed cases of birdflu here as the migratory birds are starting to appear.

So stay safe and don't go trying to eat any bird-poo or play rugby with any dead bird carcasses (which according to some are the only 2 sure ways to actually get the virus

 

[Grooveski]

Man, it's getting about now.

Was reading a couple of days ago that domestic cats are starting to catch a mutated form of it too.

 

[directdrive]

Frankly, I think it's world -wide spread is inevitable. It is almost certain (definite) that the virus will mutate and make the jump from bird to human. In fact, this may already have occurred in Asia or Africa. In time, we'll have the damned stuff everywhere. I think it is natures way of eliminating over-population. Certainly, millions and tens of millions will die. Think about the populations of China, India and Africa for God's Sake. They have untold numbers of people living in the very poorest conditions imaginable, no information networks, no infrastructure and no money to help stop the spread of the virus. After gaining a foothold in these areas, it will spread all over the remainder of the world both through birds migrating and people traveling from country to country, continent to continent. We are, unfortunately, a world community now and will all share the same diseases and possible cures.
During the 1918 flu pandemic, people here in the U.S. who could afford to do so, left the cities and remained in remote locations where they had previously stock-piled stores and rations sufficient to wait out the spread of the disease. They managed to live through it while most of those without such means had to remain in the cities where they contracted the virus and often died.
I can't recall off-hand what the mortality rate for this particular strain of virus is, but I do know it's frighteningly high.
Perhaps it's time for all of us to make such plans as we are able to avoid, as much as possible, the coming pandemic........

Best Wishes and Good Health to All of You.......

Bruce

 

[Porcupine]

when it comes down to it theres 50% chance mate,you die or you dont.

i have read up alot on the subject a lot lately and yes,theres differences in mortality rates but theres also difference in contagiousnes (spelling?)

to muddle matters more we all hear about h5n1 but noone mentions theres h3 and h7 out there too.

the H and the N stand for different parts of the virus,theres a total of 135 combinations possible,hard to be immune to all.

H1N1 was known as the spanish flu because only spain was publishing about it in the papers (the other countrys were at war and hushed it up),it had a mortality rate of 2,4%(other odd thing,it killed mostly young adults,not the old or very young)

the current new batches of flu you hear about are said to be between 50 and 75% mortality. problem is noone can say when the next flu pandemic will rear its ugly head,noone can say wich type it will be.

also keep in mind the numbers are based on a very small amount of data when compared to the world population.the people involved were often poor and being a westerner might drasticaly enhance survival rates because of being better fed and having acces to some other things you take for granted (clean water for example)


all in all theres a good reason for concern,but no need for panic.


porc.

 

[RovingArcher]

If domestic cats are contracting the flu, perhaps scientists should look at cats as a possible crossover to humans, because in many instances, there is a cat litter box in the home that needs to be cleaned regularly and bites/scratches are not uncommon.

 

[British Red]

Frankly, I think it's world -wide spread is inevitable. It is almost certain (definite) that the virus will mutate and make the jump from bird to human. In fact, this may already have occurred in Asia or Africa. In time, we'll have the damned stuff everywhere. I think it is natures way of eliminating over-population. Certainly, millions and tens of millions will die. Think about the populations of China, India and Africa for God's Sake. They have untold numbers of people living in the very poorest conditions imaginable, no information networks, no infrastructure and no money to help stop the spread of the virus. After gaining a foothold in these areas, it will spread all over the remainder of the world both through birds migrating and people traveling from country to country, continent to continent. We are, unfortunately, a world community now and will all share the same diseases and possible cures.
During the 1918 flu pandemic, people here in the U.S. who could afford to do so, left the cities and remained in remote locations where they had previously stock-piled stores and rations sufficient to wait out the spread of the disease. They managed to live through it while most of those without such means had to remain in the cities where they contracted the virus and often died.
I can't recall off-hand what the mortality rate for this particular strain of virus is, but I do know it's frighteningly high.
Perhaps it's time for all of us to make such plans as we are able to avoid, as much as possible, the coming pandemic........

Best Wishes and Good Health to All of You.......

Bruce

Current H5N1 morbiditiy from confirmed and documented cases is c60%. To put that in context the "Spanish" flu morbidity was estimated at 5%. However should the virus mutate to H2H form, the morbidity is likely to decrease...its not in the virus' interests to wipe out its host. Some comfort may be taken that the morbidity cases are calculated by confirmed cases from (predominantly) Asia. In some of the countries concerned, hospitalisation is a treatment of last resort, so it is very hard to know the true rate.

We are overdure a 'flu pandemic - the only question is when and how bad

Red

 

[Toddy]

I wonder sometimes; we know that the speed of travel and the easy accessibility of produce among the richer nations will supposedly lead to us being more vulnerable to infection. Does it not then seem reasonable that we have already had our immune systems given a real boost simply by virtue of the fact that we *are* in contact with so many more people and all the little infections?

We take life for granted; our infant mortality rates are very low, our life expectancy is very high; we *know* with some certainty that our children will grow to adulthood.
However, we're not stupid; Canada stopped SARS in it's tracks once it knew what it was dealing with, and we are all aware now.
If a real flu comes I know we cannot expect 100% survival rates, but I seriously doubt that 50% mortality will result.
Some clear guidelines of how infection spreads, how to contain it, how to nurse the affected properly, how to deal effectively with those who don't survive as well as those who do, will I assume be forthcoming if the need arises.
Most folk in the west have radio, tv, or internet contact with mainstream society; information is easily spread. Unfortunately so is scaremongering.

If this threat scares us, imagine how badly those less fortunate must feel?
It was the young and fit who were most vulnerable last time, and the world was at war. Maybe it's time to stop the conflicts and concentrate on the common enemies, disease, hunger, poverty.

Toddy

 

[jdlenton]

Nice theory at thte begining Toddy and the rest i couldn't have put it better my self. here here

James